Inclusive Planning for Changing Arctic Futures: Demonstrating a Scenario-Based Discussion

The report details a 90-minute tabletop exercise simulating a nuclear maritime accident in the Bering Strait in 2050. The exercise identified critical gaps in Arctic infrastructure, including the fact that only 6% of Arctic waters are charted to modern standards and a lack of predictive atmospheric and ocean circulation models for winter conditions. Key findings emphasize the need for integrated indigenous emergency response infrastructure, the establishment of 'Confidence Building Measures' (CBM) with Russia to manage high-level nuclear contingencies, and the necessity of a common, multi-agency observation network to track changing Arctic storm patterns. The document argues that proactive research into radionuclide transport and the creation of an Arctic operations center are essential to avoid catastrophic failures in situational awareness and operational response.

• The United States Coast Guard would lead the initial operational response to a major Arctic shipping incident using established search and rescue protocols, but severe conditions and sparse communications infrastructure present major challenges.
• A nuclear incident in shallow water, specifically the loss of cooling water circulation in a reactor, could lead to core melt within hours and the release of iodine (near term) and cesium-137 (long term), the latter of which threatens food sources.
• Current predictive capabilities for winter Arctic conditions are insufficient; there is a critical need for a single, common model and a better observation network to track changing storm climatology where storms now regenerate in warming Arctic waters.
• The US Arctic lacks essential operational and research infrastructure, with only 6% of waters charted to modern standards and a deficiency in the observation networks required to build predictive atmospheric and ocean circulation models.
• Effective response requires the integration of indigenous emergency response infrastructure and the building of trust through transparency, particularly given the legacy of the US government's Project Chariot which exposed indigenous people to radiation.
• A nuclear incident would likely escalate to a high-level international crisis requiring 'Confidence Building Measures' (CBM) and established communication channels with various Russian entities, as the Russian Coast Guard may lack the authority to coordinate with powerful bodies like ROSATOMFLOT or Gazprom.

APA

Goodman, S., Davies, P., Townsend, J., & Maddox, M. (2019). Inclusive Planning for Changing Arctic Futures: Demonstrating a Scenario-Based Discussion. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2050-Arctic-Tabletop-Report.pdf

Chicago

Goodman, Sherri, Peter Davies, Jim Townsend, and Marisol Maddox. Inclusive Planning for Changing Arctic Futures: Demonstrating a Scenario-Based Discussion. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2019. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2050-Arctic-Tabletop-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Goodman |first1=Sherri |last2=Davies |first2=Peter |last3=Townsend |first3=Jim |last4=Maddox |first4=Marisol |title=Inclusive Planning for Changing Arctic Futures: Demonstrating a Scenario-Based Discussion |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=5 September 2019 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2050-Arctic-Tabletop-Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{goodman2019inclusive, author = {Goodman, Sherri and Davies, Peter and Townsend, Jim and Maddox, Marisol}, title = {{Inclusive Planning for Changing Arctic Futures: Demonstrating a Scenario-Based Discussion}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2019}, month = sep, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2050-Arctic-Tabletop-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }