Protecting Japans National Security with Renewable Energy

The report examines the intersection of Japan's energy policy and national security, arguing that a faster shift to renewables—potentially reaching 70% of electricity generation by 2035—would mitigate risks associated with fragile fossil fuel supply chains and geopolitical instability. While acknowledging challenges such as China's dominance in clean energy supply chains and cybersecurity risks, the authors contend these are manageable compared to the vulnerabilities of continued fossil fuel dependence. The document recommends greater inter-ministerial coordination between energy, defense, and diplomatic agencies to prioritize renewables as a national security imperative.

• Japan's current energy profile is characterized by an extreme reliance on imported fossil fuels, importing 87% of its total energy supply, with 85% of that consisting of fossil fuels (specifically 26% coal, 38% oil, and 21% liquefied natural gas).
• Modeling from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory indicates that Japan could feasibly achieve 70% renewable electricity generation by 2035. This scenario would result in an 85% reduction in fossil fuel import costs and lower overall electricity costs compared to current levels.
• A transition to renewables would mitigate risks from nine specific fossil fuel supply chain chokepoints and vulnerabilities, including the Panama Canal (subject to drought), the Bab al-Mandeb (Houthi attacks), the Strait of Hormuz (Iran conflict), and the Strait of Malacca (strategic chokepoint in a China conflict).
• Accelerating renewables would support Japan's defense posture by increasing the readiness of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) through energy sources that cannot be weaponized by foreign suppliers and by freeing up budgetary space. The report estimates that the 84% reduction in fuel costs under the 70% renewable scenario would save approximately $22.7 billion annually.
• The transition offers a cybersecurity opportunity to replace older, centralized analog fossil fuel infrastructure with distributed, digitally-native grid infrastructure (such as smart inverters and virtual power plants) that can be designed for security from the start.
• While China dominates clean energy supply chains, the report argues this risk is manageable because renewable infrastructure lasts 20 to 30 years, unlike fossil fuels which require constant replenishment, and Japan is already diversifying mineral sources, such as pursuing dysprosium from Malaysia.
• A significant barrier to this transition is the 'siloing' of government ministries, where the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) dominates energy policy without fully internalizing the diplomatic and defense costs managed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and the Ministry of Defense (MOD).

APA

Baxter, C., Boland, L., Ellison, T., & Fritzhand, N. (2025). Protecting Japans National Security with Renewable Energy. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/08/20/protecting-japans-national-security-with-renewable-energy/

Chicago

Baxter, Caroline, Lily Boland, Tom Ellison, and Noah Fritzhand. Protecting Japans National Security with Renewable Energy. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/08/20/protecting-japans-national-security-with-renewable-energy/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Baxter |first1=Caroline |last2=Boland |first2=Lily |last3=Ellison |first3=Tom |last4=Fritzhand |first4=Noah |title=Protecting Japans National Security with Renewable Energy |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=20 August 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/08/20/protecting-japans-national-security-with-renewable-energy/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{baxter2025protecting, author = {Baxter, Caroline and Boland, Lily and Ellison, Tom and Fritzhand, Noah}, title = {{Protecting Japans National Security with Renewable Energy}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/08/20/protecting-japans-national-security-with-renewable-energy/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }