Americans underestimate how many others in the U.S. think global warming is happening

The report finds that Americans significantly underestimate the percentage of their fellow citizens who believe global warming is occurring, with an average estimate of 54% compared to an actual figure of 69%. This gap, termed pluralistic ignorance, is most pronounced among conservative Republicans and rural residents, while liberal Democrats and highly educated individuals are more accurate. The findings suggest that correcting these misperceptions can increase willingness to discuss climate change and increase support for climate policies.

• Americans generally underestimate the social consensus on global warming; while 69% of Americans believe global warming is happening, the average estimate of other Americans' beliefs is only 54%.
• Accuracy in estimating public opinion varies by demographic: liberal Democrats and those with higher education are more accurate, whereas conservative Republicans and people in rural areas are less accurate.
• Approximately 19% of Americans are unsure how many others in the U.S. believe global warming is happening, with conservative Republicans being the most likely to express this uncertainty and liberal Democrats the least likely.
• Perceiving a greater social consensus on global warming correlates with more pro-climate views and behaviors, including a higher frequency of discussing the topic with friends and family.
• Correcting pluralistic ignorance—the misjudgment of others' beliefs—can reduce self-silencing, increase willingness to discuss climate change, and increase support for climate policies.

APA

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (2019). Americans underestimate how many others in the U.S. think global warming is happening. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-underestimate-how-many-others-in-the-u-s-think-global-warming-is-happening/

Chicago

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. Americans underestimate how many others in the U.S. think global warming is happening. 2019. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-underestimate-how-many-others-in-the-u-s-think-global-warming-is-happening/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Yale Program on Climate Change Communication |title=Americans underestimate how many others in the U.S. think global warming is happening |date=2 July 2019 |url=https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-underestimate-how-many-others-in-the-u-s-think-global-warming-is-happening/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yaleprogramonclimatechangecommunication2019americans, author = {{Yale Program on Climate Change Communication}}, title = {{Americans underestimate how many others in the U.S. think global warming is happening}}, institution = {Yale Program on Climate Change Communication}, year = {2019}, month = jul, url = {https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-underestimate-how-many-others-in-the-u-s-think-global-warming-is-happening/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }