Even Americans Highly Concerned About Climate Change Dramatically Underestimate the Scientific Consensus

Analysis of surveys involving over 8,000 U.S. adults reveals that most Americans, including those highly concerned about climate change, significantly underestimate the 97% scientific consensus on human-caused global warming. The study identifies that while pro-climate opinions can form through non-scientific routes like social norms, correcting the underestimation of scientific consensus can act as a 'gateway' to increase worry and support for climate policy.

• While 97% of climate scientists agree that human-caused global warming is occurring, most Americans underestimate this level of consensus, including those in the most concerned groups. The 'Alarmed' and 'Concerned' groups estimated the consensus at 84% and 73% respectively, while the 'Doubtful' and 'Dismissive' groups estimated it at 52% and 44%.
• Underestimation of the scientific consensus is attributed to three primary factors: the influence of non-scientific factors such as ideology and social circles, misinformation campaigns that falsely claim ongoing scientific debate, and a general lack of publicity regarding the consensus.
• The 'Gateway Belief Model' suggests that increasing public awareness of the scientific consensus can lead to a chain reaction: improving consensus estimates increases the belief that climate change is human-caused, which increases worry and subsequently increases support for climate policy.
• The research utilized data from the bi-annual Climate Change in the American Mind survey between 2013 and 2018, collecting responses from 5,752 U.S. adults who provided percentage estimates and 2,288 who responded 'Don’t know enough to say.'

APA

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (2018). Even Americans Highly Concerned About Climate Change Dramatically Underestimate the Scientific Consensus. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/even-americans-highly-concerned-about-climate-change-dramatically-underestimate-the-scientific-consensus/

Chicago

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. Even Americans Highly Concerned About Climate Change Dramatically Underestimate the Scientific Consensus. 2018. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/even-americans-highly-concerned-about-climate-change-dramatically-underestimate-the-scientific-consensus/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Yale Program on Climate Change Communication |title=Even Americans Highly Concerned About Climate Change Dramatically Underestimate the Scientific Consensus |date=17 October 2018 |url=https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/even-americans-highly-concerned-about-climate-change-dramatically-underestimate-the-scientific-consensus/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yaleprogramonclimatechangecommunication2018even, author = {{Yale Program on Climate Change Communication}}, title = {{Even Americans Highly Concerned About Climate Change Dramatically Underestimate the Scientific Consensus}}, institution = {Yale Program on Climate Change Communication}, year = {2018}, month = oct, url = {https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/even-americans-highly-concerned-about-climate-change-dramatically-underestimate-the-scientific-consensus/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }