How Stable is Earth’s Climate?

A nationally representative study found that Americans hold diverse views on climate stability, with the 'Threshold' model being the most common. The findings indicate a strong correlation between a person's mental model of climate stability and their acceptance of global warming, with those viewing the system as fragile, gradual, or threshold-based being more likely to believe global warming is happening compared to those with random or stable models.

• Americans hold five distinct mental models of climate stability, with the 'Threshold' model (where climate is stable within limits but dangerous if warming is large) being the most frequent choice at 34%, followed by Gradual (24%), Random (21%), Fragile (11%), and Stable (10%).
• There is a significant relationship between a respondent's mental model and their belief in global warming: 79% of those with a 'Fragile' model believe global warming is happening, whereas only 21% of those with a 'Stable' model hold that belief, with 64% of the 'Stable' group stating it is not happening.
• Overall, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, while 19% believe it is not and 18% are unsure.

APA

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (2014). How Stable is Earth’s Climate? https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/how-stable-is-earths-climate/

Chicago

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. How Stable is Earth’s Climate? 2014. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/how-stable-is-earths-climate/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Yale Program on Climate Change Communication |title=How Stable is Earth’s Climate? |date=24 April 2014 |url=https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/how-stable-is-earths-climate/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yaleprogramonclimatechangecommunication2014how, author = {{Yale Program on Climate Change Communication}}, title = {{How Stable is Earth’s Climate?}}, institution = {Yale Program on Climate Change Communication}, year = {2014}, month = apr, url = {https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/how-stable-is-earths-climate/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }