Americans Underestimate How Many Others in the U.S. Think Global Warming is Happening

Based on an April 2019 national survey, the document finds that Americans generally underestimate the proportion of their fellow citizens who believe global warming is happening, with an average estimate of 54% compared to an actual figure of 69%. This 'pluralistic ignorance' is more pronounced among conservative Republicans and rural residents, while liberal Democrats and more educated individuals are more accurate. The report argues that perceiving a greater social consensus correlates with more pro-climate views and a higher frequency of discussing the topic with friends and family, suggesting that correcting these misperceptions can increase support for climate policies.

• Americans generally underestimate the social consensus on global warming; while 69% of Americans believe global warming is happening, the average person estimates that only 54% of other Americans hold this view.
• Accuracy in estimating public opinion on global warming varies by demographic: liberal Democrats and those with higher education are more accurate, whereas conservative Republicans and people in rural areas are less accurate.
• Approximately 19% of Americans are unsure how many others in the U.S. believe global warming is occurring, with conservative Republicans being the most likely to express this uncertainty and liberal Democrats the least likely.
• Perceiving a higher social consensus on global warming is linked to more pro-climate behaviors, such as discussing the issue more frequently with friends and family.
• Pluralistic ignorance acts as a barrier to climate change discussion by causing self-silencing, but correcting these misperceptions can increase willingness to discuss the topic and increase support for climate policies.

APA

Ballew, M., Goldberg, M., Bergquist, P., Rosenthal, S., Gustafson, A., Kotcher, J., Maibach, E., & Leiserowitz, A. (2019). Americans Underestimate How Many Others in the U.S. Think Global Warming is Happening. Center for Climate Change Communication. https://climatecommunication.gmu.edu/all/americans-underestimate-how-many-others-in-the-us-think-global-warming-is-happening/

Chicago

Ballew, Matthew, Matthew Goldberg, Parrish Bergquist, Seth Rosenthal, Abel Gustafson, John Kotcher, Edward Maibach, and Anthony Leiserowitz. Americans Underestimate How Many Others in the U.S. Think Global Warming is Happening. Center for Climate Change Communication, 2019. https://climatecommunication.gmu.edu/all/americans-underestimate-how-many-others-in-the-us-think-global-warming-is-happening/.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{ballew2019americans, author = {Ballew, Matthew and Goldberg, Matthew and Bergquist, Parrish and Rosenthal, Seth and Gustafson, Abel and Kotcher, John and Maibach, Edward and Leiserowitz, Anthony}, title = {{Americans Underestimate How Many Others in the U.S. Think Global Warming is Happening}}, institution = {Center for Climate Change Communication}, year = {2019}, month = jul, url = {https://climatecommunication.gmu.edu/all/americans-underestimate-how-many-others-in-the-us-think-global-warming-is-happening/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }