Why temporary carbon storage is risky and cannot replace emission reductions

The report establishes a framework for assessing temporary carbon storage, asserting that because CO2 emissions have effectively permanent impacts, storage lasting only decades or a century cannot offset emissions without risking higher long-term temperatures. It argues that economic equivalence claims are irrelevant to the physical targets of the Paris Agreement and suggests a minimum storage requirement of 100 years based on the precautionary principle and current global emissions trajectories.

• Temporary carbon storage is not physically equivalent to CO2 emissions because emissions have permanent atmospheric and oceanic consequences, whereas temporary storage only delays emissions and does not lower long-run equilibrium temperatures. Using such storage to offset or compensate for emissions can lead to higher long-term temperatures and undermine the Paris Agreement's warming limits.
• Claims that temporary storage is 'economically equivalent' to permanent storage or emissions are based on cost-benefit calculations and discount rates that conflict with the physical temperature targets of the Paris Agreement.
• To effectively reduce peak global temperatures, carbon must remain stored until planetary temperatures have peaked. Given current global climate policies and the gap regarding the Paris Agreement, the precautionary principle suggests a minimum storage duration of 100 years.
• The required duration for carbon storage is inversely related to the success of global emission reductions; slower global progress toward net-zero emissions necessitates longer minimum storage requirements to avoid increasing peak warming.

APA

Cullenward, D. (2023). Why temporary carbon storage is risky and cannot replace emission reductions. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Mortgaging-the-atmosphere-Summary-for-policymakers.pdf

Chicago

Cullenward, Danny. Why temporary carbon storage is risky and cannot replace emission reductions. Carbon Market Watch, 2023. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Mortgaging-the-atmosphere-Summary-for-policymakers.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cullenward |first1=Danny |title=Why temporary carbon storage is risky and cannot replace emission reductions |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=September 2023 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Mortgaging-the-atmosphere-Summary-for-policymakers.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cullenward2023why, author = {Cullenward, Danny}, title = {{Why temporary carbon storage is risky and cannot replace emission reductions}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Mortgaging-the-atmosphere-Summary-for-policymakers.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }