International aviation: Will the EU restart the clock?

The report examines four scenarios for extending the EU ETS aviation scope beyond intra-EEA flights, potentially increasing revenues up to 1,160 billion € by 2040. It argues that including non-CO2 effects and private jets would significantly boost funding for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), rail infrastructure (TEN-T), and international climate finance (NCQG).

• The EU ETS for aviation is currently limited to intra-EEA flights due to a "stop-the-clock" measure, while international flights are covered by CORSIA, which is criticized for only covering traffic growth compared to 85% of 2019 activity and relying on offsets rather than emission reductions.
• Depending on the geographical extension chosen in 2026, the EU could increase aviation EU ETS revenues almost four-fold. The most expansive scenario (Scenario 1), covering all flights to or from the EEA, could generate significantly higher revenues than the current intra-EEA scope (Scenario 4).
• Including non-CO2 effects, primarily condensation trails, could increase revenues by approximately 2.5 times. The report notes that non-CO2 impacts can be at least as significant as direct CO2 emissions and potentially up to three times larger.
• Expanding the EU ETS to cover all private jets could add between 5 and 59 billion € in revenues from 2025 to 2040. Currently, 67% of private flights are excluded from the EU ETS under the current intra-EEA scope.
• Total potential revenues from a full-scope extension (including non-CO2 effects and private jets) could reach 1,160 billion € over 15 years, providing a strong incentive for aviation decarbonisation.
• Current EU ETS revenue allocation to aviation decarbonisation is limited; for example, only two projects in the Innovation Fund portfolio by the end of 2023 were dedicated to producing sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), with a total investment of 247 million €.
• There is a significant gap between potential EU ETS revenues and the investment needs for key priority sectors: SAF requires 4 to 12 billion € annually, rail infrastructure (TEN-T) needs 30 to 47 billion € annually, and the EU's contribution to the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) could require over 79 billion € by 2035.

APA

Grillet, C., Meunier, N., Ponsa-Sala, C., & Riet, A. (2025). International aviation: Will the EU restart the clock? Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Carbone-4-EU-ETS-aviation-extension-.pdf

Chicago

Grillet, Céleste, Nicolas Meunier, Carles Ponsa-Sala, and Apolline Riet. International aviation: Will the EU restart the clock? Carbon Market Watch, 2025. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Carbone-4-EU-ETS-aviation-extension-.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Grillet |first1=Céleste |last2=Meunier |first2=Nicolas |last3=Ponsa-Sala |first3=Carles |last4=Riet |first4=Apolline |title=International aviation: Will the EU restart the clock? |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=July 2025 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Carbone-4-EU-ETS-aviation-extension-.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{grillet2025international, author = {Grillet, Céleste and Meunier, Nicolas and Ponsa-Sala, Carles and Riet, Apolline}, title = {{International aviation: Will the EU restart the clock?}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2025}, month = jul, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Carbone-4-EU-ETS-aviation-extension-.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }