The Phantom Menace: An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Allowances Surplus

The document examines the risk posed by a projected surplus of up to 13 billion Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) that could be carried over into a second Kyoto Protocol commitment period. It argues that without restrictions, this surplus could eliminate additional emissions reductions and threaten the goal of limiting global warming to 2°C, thereby undermining the viability of the global climate deal planned for 2020.

• By the end of 2012, an estimated 13 billion surplus Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) could be carried over into the next Kyoto Protocol commitment period, a volume nearly three times the annual emissions of the European Union and more than twice those of the United States.
• The carry-over of the full AAU surplus threatens the effectiveness of international climate policy, potentially resulting in no additional emissions reductions relative to business-as-usual projections by 2020 and risking a breach of the +2°C temperature limit.
• A failure to address the AAU surplus would weaken the environmental integrity of a second Kyoto commitment period and negatively impact the new global climate regime intended to take effect in 2020 as called for by the Durban Platform.
• The author identifies proposals from the Africa Group and AOSIS as promising options for protecting the environmental integrity of the Kyoto Protocol after 2012.

APA

Carbon Market Watch (2012). The Phantom Menace: An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Allowances Surplus. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/publications/the-phantom-menace-an-introduction-to-the-kyoto-protocol-allowances-surplus-policy-brief-july-2012/

Chicago

Carbon Market Watch. The Phantom Menace: An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Allowances Surplus. 2012. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/publications/the-phantom-menace-an-introduction-to-the-kyoto-protocol-allowances-surplus-policy-brief-july-2012/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Carbon Market Watch |title=The Phantom Menace: An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Allowances Surplus |date=26 July 2012 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/publications/the-phantom-menace-an-introduction-to-the-kyoto-protocol-allowances-surplus-policy-brief-july-2012/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbonmarketwatch2012phantom, author = {{Carbon Market Watch}}, title = {{The Phantom Menace: An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Allowances Surplus}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2012}, month = jul, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/publications/the-phantom-menace-an-introduction-to-the-kyoto-protocol-allowances-surplus-policy-brief-july-2012/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }