Summary
The document argues that current emissions pledges from 42 developed countries, projected to reduce emissions by up to 4 billion tons of CO2e in 2020, are insufficient to meet the 2°C warming limit and are further undermined by accounting loopholes. It identifies five specific loopholes—including 'Hot Air' and LULUCF rules—and compares their cumulative size against the approximately 18 Gt of cumulative emissions reductions projected for the 2013-2020 period.
Key insights
- Pledges from 42 developed (Annex 1) countries are projected to reduce emissions by up to 4 billion tons (Gt) CO2e in 2020 compared to business as usual, which represents roughly one third of the 12 GtCO2e reductions required to keep warming below 2°C.
- The author identifies five specific 'loopholes' in the negotiation framework that could negate the intended emissions benefits of existing pledges: surplus allowances (Hot Air) from the first commitment period, weak LULUCF accounting rules, double counting of emissions reductions, and emissions from international aviation and shipping.
- When translated into a commitment period from 2013 to 2020, the pledges of the 42 Annex 1 countries represent approximately 18 Gt of cumulative emissions reductions by 2020.
Cite the original document
- APA
- Kollmuss, A. (2011). Watch this issue. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2011/12/03/watch-this-issue3-03-dec-4/
- Chicago
- Kollmuss, Anja. Watch this issue. Carbon Market Watch, 2011. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2011/12/03/watch-this-issue3-03-dec-4/.
- Wikipedia
- {{cite report |last1=Kollmuss |first1=Anja |title=Watch this issue |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=3 December 2011 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2011/12/03/watch-this-issue3-03-dec-4/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
- BibTeX
- @techreport{kollmuss2011watch, author = {Kollmuss, Anja}, title = {{Watch this issue}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2011}, month = dec, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2011/12/03/watch-this-issue3-03-dec-4/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }
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