Incorporating Just Transitions in Kenya’s Low-Carbon Economy Development Path

The report argues that while Kenya is advancing in renewable energy and climate policy, its transition to a low-carbon economy risks marginalizing informal workers, women, and youth. It examines sectoral vulnerabilities in agriculture, energy, transport, industry, forestry, waste, and tourism, highlighting a critical gap between national climate goals and the social protection mechanisms needed to ensure a just transition. The document recommends integrating just transition principles into the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Medium-Term Plans, emphasizing the need for reskilling, gender quotas, and the formalization of the informal sector to prevent livelihood losses.

• Kenya's agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change and is a primary site for just transition intervention, as it employs 9 million people, 8.3 million of whom are informally employed.
• Despite achieving a renewable energy generation mix of 86%, Kenya faces significant gaps in energy access and gender equity, with only 10% of the population having access to clean cooking energy.
• The introduction of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Nairobi threatens the livelihoods of thousands of informal transport workers, with a potential net loss of 30,000 jobs if no protective measures are taken.
• Kenya's industrial sector, particularly cement and steel, relies heavily on fossil fuels and employs many semi-skilled contractual workers who are at risk of displacement by new low-carbon technologies.
• Efforts to increase forest cover to 10% could jeopardize the livelihoods of nearly three million people, including indigenous groups like the Ogiek and forest-dependent communities, if the transition is not socially inclusive.
• The waste sector in Nairobi is characterized by low recycling rates (less than 10%) and a heavy reliance on informal pickers; the planned relocation of the Dandora dumpsite directly threatens the livelihoods of over 3,000 families.
• The tourism sector, contributing 10.4% to GDP, is highly sensitive to climate-driven resource loss, such as the melting of glaciers on Mt Kenya and damage to marine ecosystems.
• There is a significant gap in Kenya's legal framework regarding just transitions; while the Paris Agreement is ratified, the nation has not enacted specific laws or strategies to mainstream just transitions into its development agenda.
• Gender inequalities persist in climate action, with women often lacking formal recognition as farmers and facing limited leadership roles in the energy sector, where they hold only 15% of technical leadership positions at the Ministry of Energy's headquarters.
• Youth represent 29% of the population and are disproportionately affected by unemployment, necessitating a redesign of education systems to align with new low-carbon industries.

APA

Mulwa, R., Musembi, E., & Maina, M. (2022). Incorporating Just Transitions in Kenya’s Low-Carbon Economy Development Path. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Just-Transitions-in-Kenyas-Low-Carbon-Economy-Development-Path.pdf

Chicago

Mulwa, Richard, Elly Musembi, and Margaret Maina. Incorporating Just Transitions in Kenya’s Low-Carbon Economy Development Path. Climate Strategies, 2022. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Just-Transitions-in-Kenyas-Low-Carbon-Economy-Development-Path.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mulwa |first1=Richard |last2=Musembi |first2=Elly |last3=Maina |first3=Margaret |title=Incorporating Just Transitions in Kenya’s Low-Carbon Economy Development Path |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2022 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Just-Transitions-in-Kenyas-Low-Carbon-Economy-Development-Path.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mulwa2022incorporating, author = {Mulwa, Richard and Musembi, Elly and Maina, Margaret}, title = {{Incorporating Just Transitions in Kenya’s Low-Carbon Economy Development Path}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2022}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Just-Transitions-in-Kenyas-Low-Carbon-Economy-Development-Path.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }