Climate Shift Index Alert

Climate Central analysis indicates that human-caused climate change has made the extreme heat gripping Spain and southern France in June 2025 at least five times more likely. Temperatures are forecast to reach up to 40°C, with approximately 94% of Spain's population expected to experience at least one day of exceptional climate-driven heat.

• Human-caused climate change has increased the likelihood of the extreme heat event occurring across nearly all of Spain by at least five times, as indicated by a Climate Shift Index (CSI) level of 5. This level of heat is expected to affect approximately 45.2 million people, or about 94% of the Spanish population, during the period from June 17 to June 21, 2025.
• Forecast temperatures for much of Spain during the five-day stretch are expected to be 6°C to 8°C above the 1991-2020 average. Daytime highs are predicted to exceed 35°C in regions including Aragón, La Rioja, and Navarra, with some areas in southern France potentially reaching 40°C. Specific city peaks include Sevilla at 40.5°C on June 20 and Mérida at 39.8°C on June 20.
• The heat event is driven by an upper-level low near the Azores that is amplifying a blocking high over Spain and parts of Europe, which traps a warm plume of air originating from northwest Africa.

APA

Climate Central (2025). Climate Shift Index Alert. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/spain-june-2025

Chicago

Climate Central. Climate Shift Index Alert. 2025. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/spain-june-2025.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=Climate Shift Index Alert |date=18 June 2025 |url=https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/spain-june-2025 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentral2025climate, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{Climate Shift Index Alert}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/spain-june-2025}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }