POWERING CANADA'S NET ZERO FUTURE

The report argues that a 'big switch' to clean electricity is essential for Canada's net zero transition, requiring a substantial increase in generation capacity, the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, and enhanced system flexibility. It identifies significant barriers, including uncoordinated federal and provincial policies, potential electricity rate increases, and limited interregional grid integration. To overcome these, the authors propose 'electric federalism'—a coordinated approach where the federal government provides financial support and a clean electricity standard in exchange for provinces updating institutional mandates and energy plans.

• To achieve net zero, Canada's electricity systems must expand significantly to meet rising demand from electrification. Electricity demand is projected to be 1.6 to 2.1 times larger by 2050 than it is today, and total generation capacity needs to grow 3 to 6 times faster than it did in the previous decade, resulting in installed capacity that is 2.2 to 3.4 times larger than current levels.
• Decarbonizing the electricity sector requires phasing out unabated fossil fuels, which are expected to constitute no more than 1% of total generation by 2050. Solar and wind power are critical for this transition, with estimates that 60–95% of new capacity added by 2030 must come from these sources, potentially making up 31-75% of total generation by 2050.
• Electricity systems must become 'smarter' to handle the variability of wind and solar and to increase resilience against climate-driven extreme weather. This involves optimizing hydropower, deploying grid-scale storage, enhancing demand-side flexibility, and expanding interregional grid integration and trade.
• The transition may put upward pressure on electricity rates in some regions, which could disproportionately affect low-income households and undermine public support for net zero. However, overall energy spending as a share of income for Canadians across all income groups is projected to fall as they shift away from gasoline and natural gas.
• Current federal and provincial policies are insufficiently coordinated. Federal carbon pricing (specifically the output-based treatment) provides weak incentives to reduce unabated natural gas use and does not prevent new gas-fired capacity. Meanwhile, provincial regulators and utilities often have ambiguous or unstated mandates regarding climate goals.
• The report recommends 'electric federalism,' where the federal government uses a clean electricity standard to rule out new gas-fired capacity and provides predictable financial support to provinces. In exchange, provinces would update institutional mandates, develop comprehensive energy plans, and remove barriers to interprovincial grid integration.

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (2022). POWERING CANADA'S NET ZERO FUTURE. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-Big-Switch-May-4-2022.pdf

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. POWERING CANADA'S NET ZERO FUTURE. 2022. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-Big-Switch-May-4-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=POWERING CANADA'S NET ZERO FUTURE |date=May 2022 |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-Big-Switch-May-4-2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canadianclimateinstitute2022powering, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{POWERING CANADA'S NET ZERO FUTURE}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-Big-Switch-May-4-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }