Technical pathways to aligning Canadian electricity systems with net zero goals

The document identifies a stark divide in Canada's electricity sector between low-emitting provinces (B.C., Manitoba, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Ontario) and fossil fuel-based provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia). To achieve net zero, the author proposes five integrated pathways: expanding variable renewable energy, implementing clean firm supply, enhancing interprovincial transmission, increasing demand flexibility, and deploying energy storage. While wind and solar are now the lowest-cost energy sources, their integration requires complementary resources to manage intermittency and seasonal variation, particularly in Canada's high-latitude environment.

• Canada's electricity system exhibits significant provincial heterogeneity, with 'clean' systems in B.C., Manitoba, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Ontario (ranging from near zero to 2 g/kWh emission intensity) contrasting with fossil fuel-based systems in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick (ranging from 290 to 720 g/kWh).
• Variable renewable energy (VRE), specifically wind and solar, has become the lowest-cost energy source from a levelized cost perspective, with some long-term wind contracts signed below CAD$30/MWh and solar below $50/MWh. The primary barrier to further deployment has shifted from technology costs to financing and policy uncertainty regarding future carbon prices.
• To complement intermittent renewables, Canada requires 'clean firm supply'—dispatchable capacity that can be adjusted to meet demand. Options include maintaining existing nuclear and hydroelectric assets, retrofitting gas plants to run on hydrogen, geothermal, and fossil fuels with carbon capture.
• Expanding interprovincial transmission would allow Canada to exploit regional complementarities, such as pairing the high wind and solar potential of the Prairies (Alberta and Saskatchewan) with the hydroelectric reservoir storage of neighboring provinces to lower decarbonization costs.
• Increasing demand-side flexibility can help integrate VRE by shifting consumption to periods of abundant supply. This can be achieved through time-varying tariffs (such as time-of-use or critical peak pricing) or direct load control, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles.
• While lithium-ion batteries are effective for short-duration diurnal cycling and frequency regulation, Canada's high latitude and wind-heavy portfolio necessitate longer-duration storage to handle seasonal variations, such as compressed air energy storage or leveraging existing hydro reservoirs.

APA

Shaffer, B. (n.d.). Technical pathways to aligning Canadian electricity systems with net zero goals. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/CICC-Technical-pathways-to-aligning-Canadian-electricity-systems-with-net-zero-goals-by-Blake-Shaffer-FINAL-1.pdf

Chicago

Shaffer, Blake. Technical pathways to aligning Canadian electricity systems with net zero goals. Canadian Climate Institute, n.d. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/CICC-Technical-pathways-to-aligning-Canadian-electricity-systems-with-net-zero-goals-by-Blake-Shaffer-FINAL-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shaffer |first1=Blake |title=Technical pathways to aligning Canadian electricity systems with net zero goals |publisher=Canadian Climate Institute |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/CICC-Technical-pathways-to-aligning-Canadian-electricity-systems-with-net-zero-goals-by-Blake-Shaffer-FINAL-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shafferndtechnical, author = {Shaffer, Blake}, title = {{Technical pathways to aligning Canadian electricity systems with net zero goals}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/CICC-Technical-pathways-to-aligning-Canadian-electricity-systems-with-net-zero-goals-by-Blake-Shaffer-FINAL-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }