Will Canadian LNG increase or decrease emissions?

Expanding Canadian LNG capacity is projected to increase domestic emissions, potentially raising British Columbia's total emissions by nearly 20% by 2035. The impact on global emissions is described as ambiguous, as there are no guarantees that Canadian LNG will displace higher-emission fuels like coal or other LNG sources, especially given the rapid growth of renewables in key markets like China, India, and Japan. The author argues that LNG exports should not be viewed as a substitute for domestic climate policy and recommends stringent methane regulations, transparent industrial carbon pricing, and the avoidance of public subsidies for LNG projects.

• Expanding LNG capacity will increase domestic emissions and make it difficult for producing provinces to meet net zero goals, despite Canada's relatively low emission intensity compared to global suppliers.
• The operation of LNG Canada’s Phase 1 facility is estimated to release 5.5 million tonnes of greenhouse gases annually from its supply chain up to shipment, which would increase British Columbia's 2023 forecast emissions of 65.2 MT by approximately 9 per cent.
• By 2035, if six facilities in British Columbia (LNG Canada 1 and 2, Cedar, Woodfibre, Ksi Lisims, and Tilbury phase 2) operate at rated capacity, total emissions could reach just under 13 MT per year, increasing the province's 2023 total emissions by nearly 20 per cent.
• The potential for Canadian LNG to reduce global emissions by replacing coal is considered speculative, as recent trends in China, India, and Japan show that non-hydro renewables are the primary drivers of coal displacement rather than natural gas.
• Global LNG demand is projected by Shell Canada to grow by 60 per cent to 2040, which could increase total global emissions if LNG does not significantly substitute for coal or if it takes a larger share than renewables in electricity generation.
• Methane leakage is a critical component of LNG supply chain emissions, accounting for 38 to 40 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions, with actual emissions potentially seven times higher than official estimates.

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (2025). Will Canadian LNG increase or decrease emissions? https://climateinstitute.ca/will-canadian-lng-increase-or-decrease-emissions/

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. Will Canadian LNG increase or decrease emissions? 2025. https://climateinstitute.ca/will-canadian-lng-increase-or-decrease-emissions/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=Will Canadian LNG increase or decrease emissions? |date=12 November 2025 |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/will-canadian-lng-increase-or-decrease-emissions/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canadianclimateinstitute2025will, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{Will Canadian LNG increase or decrease emissions?}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/will-canadian-lng-increase-or-decrease-emissions/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }