Étude de l'Institut Fraser sur la tarification du carbone industriel : incohérences

The Canadian Climate Institute challenges a Fraser Institute study on industrial carbon pricing, noting that its projected 1.3% GDP decline by 2030 significantly exceeds estimates from Environment and Climate Change Canada (0.2%) and the Parliamentary Budget Officer (0.8% combined impact). The Institute identifies several inconsistencies in the Fraser study, including disproportionate negative impacts on exempt sectors like agriculture and services, a failure to account for sector-specific emission thresholds in petrochemicals and cement, and a likely overestimation of costs due to inadequate modeling of low-carbon technology adoption.

• The Fraser Institute's estimate that industrial carbon pricing at $170 per tonne will reduce Canada's GDP by 1.3% in 2030 is an outlier, differing by an order of magnitude from other estimates, such as Environment and Climate Change Canada's 0.2% and the Canadian Climate Institute's 0.1%.
• The Fraser Institute's results are internally inconsistent because sectors with little or no exposure to industrial carbon pricing show some of the largest negative impacts; for example, the 'Agriculture, fishing and trapping' sector shows a 1.2% activity decline despite most of the sector being exempt.
• The Fraser Institute's model likely overestimates production reductions in the petrochemical and cement sectors because it assumes a uniform emission threshold for all sectors, ignoring the higher thresholds actually granted to these highly competitive industries.
• The Fraser Institute reports a significant negative economic impact on electricity production, which contradicts the Canadian Climate Institute's findings that electricity GDP increases with industrial carbon pricing and climate policies due to electrification and the replacement of natural gas.
• The Fraser Institute's use of computable general equilibrium models may overestimate costs by failing to account for how industries adopt low-carbon technologies to avoid carbon prices, instead simulating a reduction in production.

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (2026). Étude de l'Institut Fraser sur la tarification du carbone industriel : incohérences. https://institutclimatique.ca/etude-institut-fraser-tarification-carbone-industriel-incoherences/

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. Étude de l'Institut Fraser sur la tarification du carbone industriel : incohérences. 2026. https://institutclimatique.ca/etude-institut-fraser-tarification-carbone-industriel-incoherences/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=Étude de l'Institut Fraser sur la tarification du carbone industriel : incohérences |date=31 March 2026 |url=https://institutclimatique.ca/etude-institut-fraser-tarification-carbone-industriel-incoherences/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{canadianclimateinstitute2026tude, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{Étude de l'Institut Fraser sur la tarification du carbone industriel : incohérences}}, publisher = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://institutclimatique.ca/etude-institut-fraser-tarification-carbone-industriel-incoherences/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }