Reducing Plastic Production to Achieve Climate Goals: Key Considerations for the Plastics Treaty Negotiations

The document asserts that current exponential growth in plastic production is incompatible with global climate goals, as plastics already account for 3% to 8% of global GHG emissions and could consume over 10% of the remaining carbon budget by 2050. It argues that emissions cannot be decoupled from production through electrification or bio-based feedstocks alone. To address this, the brief recommends that the plastics treaty establish a global production baseline, a freeze on production levels, and a phasedown schedule to reduce production by 46% to 70% from 2019 levels by 2050. It further calls for a ban on new production infrastructure, the elimination of public subsidies, and the implementation of trade restrictions to prevent carbon leakage.

• Current plastic production trends are incompatible with the 1.5°C warming limit. Plastics currently contribute between 3% and 8% of global GHG emissions and are projected to consume between 10% and 32% of the remaining global carbon budget by 2050 if production continues to grow exponentially.
• The expansion of plastic production infrastructure creates a long-term 'lock-in' of fossil fuel dependency. Between 2023 and 2027, over 1,400 new petrochemical projects are projected to begin operations, which will increase demand for fossil fuels even as demand declines in the energy and transport sectors.
• Public financing and subsidies artificially lower the cost of plastic production and encourage infrastructure expansion. These include government-mediated loans, tax breaks, and beneficial interest rates provided through national development banks and wealth funds.
• To align with a 1.5°C pathway, global plastic production must be reduced significantly from 2019 levels (460 Mt/year). Two models suggest production should not exceed 140 Mt or 246 Mt by 2050, representing a minimum reduction of 46% to 70%.

APA

González, D. D., Radvany, R., & Azoulay, D. (2023). Reducing Plastic Production to Achieve Climate Goals: Key Considerations for the Plastics Treaty Negotiations. Center for International Environmental Law. https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Reducing-Plastic-Production-to-Achieve-Climate-Goals_Sept21_V5.pdf

Chicago

González, Daniela Durán, Rachel Radvany, and David Azoulay. Reducing Plastic Production to Achieve Climate Goals: Key Considerations for the Plastics Treaty Negotiations. Center for International Environmental Law, 2023. https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Reducing-Plastic-Production-to-Achieve-Climate-Goals_Sept21_V5.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=González |first1=Daniela Durán |last2=Radvany |first2=Rachel |last3=Azoulay |first3=David |title=Reducing Plastic Production to Achieve Climate Goals: Key Considerations for the Plastics Treaty Negotiations |publisher=Center for International Environmental Law |date=September 2023 |url=https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Reducing-Plastic-Production-to-Achieve-Climate-Goals_Sept21_V5.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gonzlez2023reducing, author = {González, Daniela Durán and Radvany, Rachel and Azoulay, David}, title = {{Reducing Plastic Production to Achieve Climate Goals: Key Considerations for the Plastics Treaty Negotiations}}, institution = {Center for International Environmental Law}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Reducing-Plastic-Production-to-Achieve-Climate-Goals_Sept21_V5.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }