The US Petrochemical Buildout: America’s Next Big Climate Mistake

A report by the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) warns that 118 planned or underway petrochemical projects in the US could add 153.8 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions annually, potentially increasing the sector's share of total US greenhouse gas emissions from 5.2% to over 7%. The analysis highlights that ten megaprojects account for half of these potential emissions and that 95% of proposed ammonia production is derived from methane gas, contradicting claims that it is a 'clean' fuel.

• Planned petrochemical projects in the US, totaling 118 facilities including new plants and expansions, could increase annual emissions by 153.8 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). This increase is equivalent to the emissions produced by all US domestic commercial aviation or nearly 40 coal power plants. Consequently, the petrochemical sector's contribution to US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could rise from its current 5.2% to more than 7%.
• A small number of large-scale projects drive the majority of the projected emissions, with ten megaprojects accounting for 50% of the potential emissions from the buildout. Conversely, nearly 60% of planned plastic production projects (by potential emissions) are currently on hold, which the authors suggest indicates investor concern regarding overcapacity, community opposition, and environmental damage.
• Ammonia production is a significant growth area, contributing more than one-third of the projected new emissions. While marketed as a 'clean' fuel of the future, 95% of proposed US ammonia production is based on methane gas. Additionally, ammonia and methanol plants are receiving US government subsidies via 45Q tax credits for using carbon capture systems (CCS).
• The petrochemical buildout is concentrated in areas already suffering from industrial pollution, specifically the Ohio River Valley and the Gulf South. In Louisiana's "Cancer Alley" (between New Orleans and Baton Rouge), 26 new projects are planned. In St John the Baptist Parish, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates lifetime cancer rates are 800 times the US average.
• The report's emissions estimates are considered conservative for three reasons: emissions were only estimated for two-thirds of potential projects; the analysis used US Department of Energy methane leakage estimates which may be three times lower than recent studies suggest; and it could not quantify the climate impacts of fertilizer overuse or plastic pollution.

APA

Pace, B., & Durland, L. J. (2024). The US Petrochemical Buildout: America’s Next Big Climate Mistake. Center for International Environmental Law. https://www.ciel.org/the-us-petrochemical-buildout-americas-next-big-climate-mistake/

Chicago

Pace, Barnaby, and Lindsey Jurca Durland. The US Petrochemical Buildout: America’s Next Big Climate Mistake. Center for International Environmental Law, 2024. https://www.ciel.org/the-us-petrochemical-buildout-americas-next-big-climate-mistake/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Pace |first1=Barnaby |last2=Durland |first2=Lindsey Jurca |title=The US Petrochemical Buildout: America’s Next Big Climate Mistake |publisher=Center for International Environmental Law |date=24 September 2024 |url=https://www.ciel.org/the-us-petrochemical-buildout-americas-next-big-climate-mistake/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{pace2024petrochemical, author = {Pace, Barnaby and Durland, Lindsey Jurca}, title = {{The US Petrochemical Buildout: America’s Next Big Climate Mistake}}, institution = {Center for International Environmental Law}, year = {2024}, month = sep, url = {https://www.ciel.org/the-us-petrochemical-buildout-americas-next-big-climate-mistake/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }