21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Olifants River Flows South Africa

The report concludes that Olifants River flows will likely decline substantially due to a combination of projected precipitation decreases and increased evaporation driven by rising temperatures. Using IPCC data and the South African Climate Change Reference Atlas, the author finds that warming is virtually certain, while annual precipitation is very likely to decrease by 5% to 25%. Drawing on analogs from the American Southwest, the analysis argues that even modest precipitation increases would be overwhelmed by temperature-induced evaporation. The document warns that these flow reductions will exacerbate existing water quality issues, such as pollutant concentrations and harmful algal blooms, and advises against the construction of new coal-fired power plants in the region.

• Temperature increases in the Olifants River catchment are virtually certain for the 21st century, with projected median warming ranging from approximately 2.5°C under RCP4.5 to 4.5°C under RCP8.5 by the end of the century.
• Annual precipitation in the Olifants catchment is very likely to decrease, with high-resolution data from the SA Atlas showing consistent drying across all models and scenarios, ranging from -5% to -25%.
• River flows in the Olifants are expected to decline substantially because higher temperatures increase evaporation and evapotranspiration, which can negate even modest increases in precipitation.
• Future precipitation patterns are expected to shift toward fewer rainy days with higher intensity, increasing the likelihood of flash floods and 'flash droughts'.
• Reduced river flows are projected to worsen existing water quality problems by increasing pollutant concentrations, raising water temperatures, and promoting harmful algal blooms.

APA

Udall, B. (2018). 21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Olifants River Flows South Africa. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Annexure-I-Udall-Report.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Udall, Brad. 21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Olifants River Flows South Africa. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2018. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Annexure-I-Udall-Report.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Udall |first1=Brad |title=21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Olifants River Flows South Africa |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=25 April 2018 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Annexure-I-Udall-Report.pdf?x21779 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{udall201821st, author = {Udall, Brad}, title = {{21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Olifants River Flows South Africa}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2018}, month = apr, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Annexure-I-Udall-Report.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }