South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

The briefing evaluates the draft second NDC from the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) and the recommendations from the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), arguing that the DFFE's targets lack sufficient ambition and scientific justification compared to the PCC's evidence-based approach.

• The DFFE's draft NDC maintains the 2026 to 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target range of 350 Mt CO2e to 420 Mt CO2e and proposes a 2031 to 2035 target range of 320 Mt CO2e to 380 Mt CO2e.
• The Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) recommends a more ambitious target range for 2031 to 2035, specifically 248 Mt CO2e to 329 Mt CO2e, based on a variety of scientific models and studies.
• Research by the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at UCT indicates that South Africa's fair share of the remaining carbon budget from 2021 to 2050 is between 6 Gt CO2e and 9 Gt CO2e, and that net zero by 2050 is achievable while increasing GDP per capita by 120% by 2055.
• A National Business Initiative (NBI) study suggests that reaching net zero by 2050 is technically possible if coal power is retired by the mid-2040s and renewable energy deployment increases tenfold to 6-7 GW per annum, potentially delivering 5 million net job years.
• South Africa faces significant economic risks from carbon border mechanisms, with the World Bank reporting that 75% of current exports to the EU are from sectors at moderate to high trade risk, including chemicals, plastics, rubber, agriculture, mining metals.
• The July 2025 International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion established that states have a duty to mitigate GHG emissions beyond the Paris Agreement and that NDCs must align with the 1.5°C target to fulfill these obligations.
• The briefing argues that the DFFE draft lacks transparency and scientific justification, as the three UCT studies it references have not been released for public scrutiny.

APA

Abdinor, B. (2025). South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/news/south-africas-second-nationally-determined-contribution-ndc

Chicago

Abdinor, Brandon. South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Centre for Environmental Rights, 2025. https://cer.org.za/news/south-africas-second-nationally-determined-contribution-ndc.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Abdinor |first1=Brandon |title=South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=28 August 2025 |url=https://cer.org.za/news/south-africas-second-nationally-determined-contribution-ndc |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{abdinor2025south, author = {Abdinor, Brandon}, title = {{South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://cer.org.za/news/south-africas-second-nationally-determined-contribution-ndc}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }