SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2)

The document outlines a phased carbon tax for South Africa starting at R120 per ton of CO2 equivalent, designed to internalise the cost of GHG emissions while protecting industrial competitiveness through allowances. Economic modelling suggests the tax could reduce emissions by 26% to 33% by 2035 compared to business-as-usual, with significant growth in renewable energy sectors and relative declines in coal and heavy industry. The policy includes revenue recycling mechanisms to protect poor households and ensure electricity price neutrality during the first phase.

• The carbon tax is designed as a broad-based pricing mechanism with a marginal rate of R120 per ton of CO2 equivalent, though tax-free allowances of 60% to 95% result in an effective initial rate between R6 and R48 per ton.
• Economic modelling indicates the carbon tax will significantly reduce South Africa's GHG emissions, with estimated decreases of 13% to 14.5% by 2025 and 26% to 33% by 2035 relative to a business-as-usual scenario.
• The tax is expected to drive a structural shift in energy production; by 2035, output from nuclear, wind, hydro, gas, and solar PV generation is projected to be more than 200% higher than without the tax, while coal generation output is expected to be 46% lower.
• To prevent direct costs to the poorest households during the first phase (until 2020), the government commits to electricity price neutrality through a credit for the electricity generation levy and a renewable energy premium credit.
• Certain emissions-intensive sectors are projected to see declines in exports by 2035, specifically the coke production sector (falling from 3.6% to -0.3% annual growth) and the iron and steel sector (falling from 3.3% to 1.4% annual growth).
• The policy includes a carbon offset mechanism capped at 10% of the tax liability to ensure firms prioritise their own emissions reductions while incentivising mitigation in non-taxed sectors.
• The carbon tax is intended to align with a future carbon budgets regime post-2020 to avoid double penalties for companies.
• For liquid fuels, the estimated carbon tax is 11 c/litre for petrol and 13 c/litre for diesel, based on a 60% basic tax-free threshold.

APA

Centre for Environmental Rights (2017). SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2). https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Socio-economic-impact-assessment.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Centre for Environmental Rights. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2). 2017. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Socio-economic-impact-assessment.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Centre for Environmental Rights |title=SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2) |date=July 2017 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Socio-economic-impact-assessment.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centreforenvironmentalrights2017socioeconomic, author = {{Centre for Environmental Rights}}, title = {{SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2)}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2017}, month = jul, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Socio-economic-impact-assessment.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }