SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2)

This document is a final impact assessment template for the Socio-Economic Impact Assessment System (SEIAS), specifically detailing the design, intended outcomes, and projected impacts of a proposed carbon tax in South Africa. It outlines a phased approach to internalise the costs of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to encourage a transition to a low-carbon economy while mitigating adverse effects on industrial competitiveness and low-income households.

• The proposed carbon tax is designed as a broad-based pricing mechanism to internalise the costs of GHG emissions, starting with a marginal tax rate of R120 per ton of CO2 equivalent. During the first phase (4–5 years), the effective tax rate is expected to range between R6 and R48 per ton of CO2 equivalent due to tax-free allowances.
• Economic modelling indicates that the carbon tax will significantly reduce South Africa's GHG emissions, with estimated decreases of 13% to 14.5% by 2025 and 26% to 33% by 2035 compared to a business-as-usual scenario.
• The tax is intended to be revenue-neutral during its first phase, with no direct impact on electricity prices. This is achieved through a phased introduction, modest effective rates, and credits for the electricity generation levy and renewable energy premiums.
• Specific sectors are projected to experience significant output declines relative to a baseline without the tax by 2035, most notably coal generation, which is expected to be 46% lower.
• Low-carbon energy sectors are expected to see substantial growth; by 2035, output from nuclear, wind, hydro, gas, and solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is projected to be more than 200% greater than in a scenario without the tax.
• To protect international competitiveness, the Bill includes a trade exposure allowance, which was adjusted from a company-based to a sector-based allowance that accounts for both exports and imports.
• The carbon tax will be implemented through a coordinated effort between the South African Revenue Service (SARS), which handles tax liability and collection, and the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), which leads the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) process.
• The government intends to use revenue recycling to support low-income households and workers, including proposed budget allocations for enhanced free basic electricity, alternative energy, and improved public passenger transport.
• The carbon tax is designed to align with the Paris Agreement and South Africa's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), aiming for emissions to peak between 2020 and 2025, plateau until 2035, and decline thereafter.
• The tax includes a carbon offset mechanism capped at 10% of the liability to ensure firms prioritize their own emission reductions while providing a cost-effective mitigation tool.

APA

Centre for Environmental Rights (2017). SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2). https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Socio-economic-impact-assessment.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Centre for Environmental Rights. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2). 2017. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Socio-economic-impact-assessment.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Centre for Environmental Rights |title=SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2) |date=July 2017 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Socio-economic-impact-assessment.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centreforenvironmentalrights2017socioeconomic, author = {{Centre for Environmental Rights}}, title = {{SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (SEIAS) FINAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE (PHASE 2)}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2017}, month = jul, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Socio-economic-impact-assessment.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }