INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN FOR ELECTRICITY 2010-2030

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010-2030 for South Africa outlines a diversified energy strategy to ensure security of supply and promote local industry. The final 'Policy-Adjusted IRP' includes a 9.6 GW nuclear fleet, 6.3 GW of new coal, and 17.8 GW of renewables (wind, solar PV, and CSP). It maintains a carbon emission limit of 275 million tons of CO2 per year after 2024 and incorporates regional hydro imports from Mozambique, Lesotho, and Zambia. The plan also includes a Medium Term Risk Mitigation Project to address anticipated supply shortfalls through 2016.

• The Policy-Adjusted IRP establishes a generation mix for 2010-2030 that includes 9.6 GW of nuclear, 6.3 GW of coal, 17.8 GW of renewables, and 8.9 GW of other generation sources, in addition to existing and committed power plants (which include 10 GW of committed coal).
• The Department of Energy committed to a full nuclear fleet of 9,600 MW to ensure security of supply against potential fuel price increases (such as a 'peak oil' scenario) and to provide dispatchable base-load capacity.
• To accelerate the development of a local industry, the Policy-Adjusted IRP brought forward the installation of renewables, specifically disaggregating them into solar photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), and wind. Solar PV is assumed to roll out at 300 MW per year starting in 2012.
• The plan maintains a carbon dioxide emission constraint of 275 million tons per year after 2024, as established in the Revised Balanced Scenario.
• The government opted to maintain Energy Efficiency Demand-Side Management (EEDSM) at the levels of the Revised Balanced Scenario rather than increasing it to a 6,298 MW option, citing risks to the security of supply if the program under-achieved.
• The plan incorporates import options for electricity, including 3,349 MW of import hydro from Mozambique, Lesotho, and Zambia, as well as coal options from Botswana and Mozambique.
• To mitigate security of supply concerns between 2022 and 2028, the plan introduces Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) earlier than cost-optimization required, securing a minimum of 711 MW between 2019 and 2021.
• The Policy-Adjusted IRP identifies several immediate commitments required before the next IRP iteration, including the first 3.0 GW of the nuclear fleet, solar PV capacity for 2012-2015, and wind installations for 2014-2015 to support local industry clusters.
• The Medium Term Risk Mitigation Project (MTRMP) identifies a high likelihood of energy supply shortfalls until 2015, with a forecasted shortfall of 9 TWh in 2012, necessitating a 'safety net' including a mandatory Energy Conservation Scheme for the 500 largest users.
• The plan notes that while diversification reduces exposure to single-commodity risks (like coal), it increases dependence on imported commodities such as uranium and gas, and regional hydro electricity.

APA

Centre for Environmental Rights (2011). INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN FOR ELECTRICITY 2010-2030. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Integrated-Resource-Plan-2010-2030.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Centre for Environmental Rights. INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN FOR ELECTRICITY 2010-2030. 2011. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Integrated-Resource-Plan-2010-2030.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Centre for Environmental Rights |title=INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN FOR ELECTRICITY 2010-2030 |date=6 May 2011 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Integrated-Resource-Plan-2010-2030.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centreforenvironmentalrights2011integrated, author = {{Centre for Environmental Rights}}, title = {{INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN FOR ELECTRICITY 2010-2030}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2011}, month = may, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Integrated-Resource-Plan-2010-2030.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }