annexures-1-f9f3564c86a643a7.pdf

This Climate Resilience Assessment (CRA), conducted by Environmental Resources Management Southern Africa Pty (Ltd) in January 2017, evaluates climate-related risks for the proposed 1,200 MW Thabametsi coal-fired power station in Lephalale, Limpopo Province, South Africa. The report identifies key vulnerabilities related to increasing temperatures, water scarcity, and extreme weather events, proposing adaptation measures to enhance the project's long-term resilience.

• The Thabametsi Power Station is proposed as a 1,200 MW coal-fired facility to be constructed in two phases: Phase 1 (630 MW) and Phase 2 (570 MW). The plant will utilize circulating fluidised bed (CFB) technology, sub-critical steam conditions, and dry cooling technologies.
• Climate projections for the Lephalale area for the 2040-2060 period, based on a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, indicate that temperatures are likely to rise by 2-3°C compared to a 1961-2000 baseline. This increase is expected to lead to more heatwave events and a higher frequency of 'hot' (above 30°C) and 'very hot' (above 35°C) days.
• There is significant uncertainty regarding future precipitation in the region; while some climate models project an increase in seasonal and annual precipitation, others project a decrease. However, dry spells between March and August are projected to increase in duration, raising the risk of drought.
• Increasing temperatures are identified as a high risk that will likely reduce the thermal efficiency of the power plant, leading to higher costs per MWh generated and increased efficiency losses. This risk is expected to remain 'High' even after adaptation because there are limited options to prevent these losses.
• Water shortages and water quality issues are rated as high risks due to increasing water stress in the Mokolo / Limpopo Water Management Area (WMA) North and the Crocodile (West) WMA. The project's water source for Phase 1, the Mokolo dam, is fully allocated and will rely on the Mokolo Crocodile (West) Water Augmentation Project Phase 2 (MCWAP-2) from 2019, which faces uncertainty regarding available surplus from the Crocodile River catchment.
• The project faces a risk to its 'social license to operate' because residents may blame industrial users for water shortages in a region already suffering from water stress and infrastructure issues. This risk is ranked as 'Medium' after adaptation measures, as the plant's ability to address widespread community concerns is limited.
• Flooding of the Mokolo river poses a risk of infrastructure damage and polluted water overflows from ash dump ponds and other drainage systems. While precipitation projections are uncertain, national studies suggest flood risks may increase to the point where design standards are exceeded.
• Proposed adaptation measures include 'hard' engineering solutions such as raising key infrastructure above ground level to create a flood buffer, installing covers on the raw water dam to minimize evaporation, and implementing an adaptive management approach to monitor risks over time.

APA

Centre for Environmental Rights (n.d.). annexures-1-f9f3564c86a643a7.pdf. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Annexures-1.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Centre for Environmental Rights. annexures-1-f9f3564c86a643a7.pdf. n.d. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Annexures-1.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Centre for Environmental Rights |title=annexures-1-f9f3564c86a643a7.pdf |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Annexures-1.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centreforenvironmentalrightsndannexures1f9f3564c86a643a7pdf, author = {{Centre for Environmental Rights}}, title = {{annexures-1-f9f3564c86a643a7.pdf}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Annexures-1.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }