AIR QUALITY IMPACTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS DUE TO LARGE STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSIONS IN AND AROUND SOUTH AFRICA’S MPUMALANGA HIGHVELD PRIORITY AREA (HPA)

This report provides an air-pollution dispersion model and health risk assessment for 14 industrial facilities in and around South Africa's Mpumalanga Highveld Priority Area (HPA). The analysis compares actual 2016 emissions against a scenario where facilities comply with the 2020 Minimum Emissions Standards (MES), finding that current emissions cause significant early deaths and exceed multiple international air quality guidelines.

• In 2016, ambient PM2.5 pollution from 14 industrial facilities caused between 305 and 650 early deaths in the region. The highest contributors to these deaths were Lethabo power station (57 to 122), Kendal power station (46 to 99), and Kriel power station (34 to 76). Compliance with the 2020 Minimum Emissions Standards (MES) is estimated to reduce these annual early deaths by 60%, preventing between 182 and 388 deaths per year.
• Cumulative emissions from the 14 facilities in 2016 led to acute exposures that exceeded World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for all pollutants. Specifically, the highest 24-hour average PM2.5 exposure was 45 µg/m3 (nearly double the WHO guideline of 25 µg/m3), the highest 24-hour average SO2 was 241.4 µg/m3 (over 1200% of the WHO standard), and the highest one-hour average NO2 was 2020 µg/m3 (over 1000% of the WHO standard). Implementing the 2020 MES would eliminate WHO guideline exceedances for 24-hour average PM10 and PM2.5.
• All 120 analyzed sensitive sites, primarily hospitals and schools, exceeded the WHO 24-hour average SO2 guideline of 20 µg/m3 in 2016. The maximum concentration was 178 µg/m3 at Duvha Primary School, with a modeled average peak of 66.4 µg/m3 across all sites. Compliance with the 2020 MES would bring SO2 exposures within WHO guidelines for 93% of these sites.
• In 2016, 28 of the 120 sensitive sites experienced unhealthy acute NO2 exposures exceeding the WHO one-hour guideline of 200 µg/m3, with the highest exposure recorded at Camden Combined School (1079 µg/m3). Even under the 2020 MES, 14 sites would still exceed the 200 µg/m3 limit, led by Camden Combined School at 588 µg/m3.
• The 14 facilities account for a dominant portion of the pollution allowed by South African national air quality limits. In 2016, they contributed 92% of the daily ambient SO2 limit, 85% of the hourly ambient SO2 limit, 82% of the hourly ambient NO2 limit, and 68% of the daily ambient PM2.5 limit. Compliance with the 2020 MES would reduce these contributions to 20% for daily SO2, 21% for hourly SO2, 53% for hourly NO2, and 28% for daily PM2.5.
• The 14 sources are responsible for substantial PM2.5 exposures across at least 30% of the modeled area. Compliance with the 2020 MES would completely eliminate the area exposed to relatively high concentrations of PM2.5, which would improve air quality for populations in Pretoria and Johannesburg.
• Compliance with the 2020 MES would lead to major reductions in total emissions from the 14 facilities compared to 2016 levels: SO2 emissions would decrease by 78%, NO2 emissions by 43%, and PM10 emissions by 51%.

APA

Gray, H. A. (2019). AIR QUALITY IMPACTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS DUE TO LARGE STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSIONS IN AND AROUND SOUTH AFRICA’S MPUMALANGA HIGHVELD PRIORITY AREA (HPA). Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Andy-Gray-Report.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Gray, H. Andrew. AIR QUALITY IMPACTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS DUE TO LARGE STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSIONS IN AND AROUND SOUTH AFRICA’S MPUMALANGA HIGHVELD PRIORITY AREA (HPA). Centre for Environmental Rights, 2019. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Andy-Gray-Report.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gray |first1=H. Andrew |title=AIR QUALITY IMPACTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS DUE TO LARGE STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSIONS IN AND AROUND SOUTH AFRICA’S MPUMALANGA HIGHVELD PRIORITY AREA (HPA) |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=3 June 2019 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Andy-Gray-Report.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gray2019air, author = {Gray, H. Andrew}, title = {{AIR QUALITY IMPACTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS DUE TO LARGE STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSIONS IN AND AROUND SOUTH AFRICA’S MPUMALANGA HIGHVELD PRIORITY AREA (HPA)}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2019}, month = jun, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Andy-Gray-Report.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }