Next-Generation Geothermal at Scale: A State Action Framework

The report argues that while next-generation geothermal has vast potential to provide clean firm power, its growth is hindered by a 'missing middle' financing gap, subsurface uncertainty, and outdated regulatory frameworks. It proposes five deployment levers: characterizing subsurface resources through data digitization and mapping, governing through streamlined permitting and clarified property rights, financing via procurement standards and convertible loans, connecting through improved transmission planning and workforce development, and innovating through sustained R&D and testbeds.

• Next-generation geothermal energy can produce power wherever subsurface rocks are hot, unlike conventional systems that require naturally occurring heat, fluid, and permeability. It has the potential to provide up to 300 GW of power across the U.S. by 2050.
• Superhot rock geothermal, defined by temperatures of 375°C and above, represents the highest-temperature form of geothermal. CATF modeling indicates that just 1% of the U.S. superhot rock resource could produce 4.3 terawatts of clean firm power.
• The industry faces a 'missing middle' financing gap where projects are too risky for late-stage infrastructure investors but too capital-intensive for early-stage venture capital. This is driven by a combination of technical and geological resource risks.
• Transmission and interconnection are identified by developers as the single largest barrier to geothermal deployment. The report notes that transmission planning in the Northwest and Southwest was rated D+ and C- respectively in a 2025 report card.
• Subsurface data is often stored in non-digital formats, limiting accessibility. Digitizing historical well logs is described as a low-cost, high-impact lever, with estimated costs for geothermal-relevant logs ranging from a few hundred thousand to $1.5 million per state.
• Regulatory systems are often inefficient due to poor coordination between multiple agencies. Developers frequently suggest that increasing agency capacity is the most effective use of limited state funding (e.g., $10 million).
• Geothermal property rights are often unclear, particularly regarding split estates. The report recommends a legal presumption that geothermal resources are owned by the surface estate owner, a rule already established in Nevada, Oregon, Texas, and Washington.
• The U.S. faces an imminent shortage of geoscientists, with a projected gap of 130,000 full-time professionals by 2030. However, the existing oil and gas workforce possesses transferable skills that can be rapidly retrained for geothermal.
• Public-private testbeds, such as the DOE-funded FORGE in Utah, are critical for advancing R&D and derisking deployment by allowing companies to test equipment in real-world conditions.
• Next-generation geothermal projects in the West currently cost approximately $7 million per MW of installed capacity, though some developers are targeting $3 million per MW through learning-by-doing.

APA

Garth, A., & Masinter, A. (2026). Next-Generation Geothermal at Scale: A State Action Framework. Clean Air Task Force. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/17201451/NextGenGeothermal_State.pdf

Chicago

Garth, Ann, and Alan Masinter. Next-Generation Geothermal at Scale: A State Action Framework. Clean Air Task Force, 2026. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/17201451/NextGenGeothermal_State.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Garth |first1=Ann |last2=Masinter |first2=Alan |title=Next-Generation Geothermal at Scale: A State Action Framework |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=August 2026 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/17201451/NextGenGeothermal_State.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{garth2026nextgeneration, author = {Garth, Ann and Masinter, Alan}, title = {{Next-Generation Geothermal at Scale: A State Action Framework}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2026}, month = aug, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/17201451/NextGenGeothermal_State.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }