Induced Seismicity and Next-Generation Geothermal

The document discusses induced seismicity in next-generation geothermal systems, specifically Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), closed-loop systems, and superhot rock (SHR) geothermal. It identifies three primary triggers for seismicity in EGS: volume and pressure changes, temperature changes, and chemical changes. While closed-loop systems have lower risk, they may still induce seismicity through temperature-driven rock contraction. The text highlights historical failures in Basel, Switzerland (2006) and Pohang, South Korea (2017) as reasons for implementing modern mitigation protocols. Recommended safeguards include early geologic mapping, real-time seismic monitoring, and the adoption of regulatory frameworks such as the U.S. DOE's Induced Seismicity Protocol and Switzerland's Good-Practice Guide, which utilize 'traffic light systems' and GRID scores to manage risk based on geologic and social sensitivity.

• Next-generation geothermal technologies, particularly superhot rock (SHR) geothermal, are viewed as capable of providing cost-competitive, continuous, and low-emission firm electricity to meet global demand.
• Induced seismicity in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is primarily triggered by three processes: volume and pressure changes caused by fluid injection or removal, temperature changes leading to rock contraction and fracturing, and chemical alterations that change the 'stickiness' of fault surfaces.
• Closed-loop geothermal systems present a lower risk of induced seismicity than EGS because they do not create reservoirs in surrounding rocks or allow injected fluids to contact them, though they may still trigger events via temperature changes.
• Historical geothermal projects in Basel, Switzerland (2006, magnitude 3.4) and Pohang, South Korea (2017, magnitude 5.4) caused damage and injuries, respectively, but did not employ current leading-practice mitigation protocols.
• The U.S. DOE's Induced Seismicity Protocol for EGS projects requires an understanding of local geology, community engagement, and real-time monitoring via a 'traffic light system' that pauses or modifies operations if seismic thresholds are exceeded.
• The Swiss Seismological Service's Good-Practice Guide introduces a Geothermal Risk of Induced seismicity Diagnosis (GRID) score to categorize projects by technical risk and public concern, requiring more rigorous assessment and Adaptive Traffic Light Systems for higher-score projects.

APA

Clean Air Task Force (2026). Induced Seismicity and Next-Generation Geothermal. https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Induced-Seismicity-Fact-Sheet.pdf

Chicago

Clean Air Task Force. Induced Seismicity and Next-Generation Geothermal. 2026. https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Induced-Seismicity-Fact-Sheet.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Clean Air Task Force |title=Induced Seismicity and Next-Generation Geothermal |date=May 2026 |url=https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Induced-Seismicity-Fact-Sheet.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleanairtaskforce2026induced, author = {{Clean Air Task Force}}, title = {{Induced Seismicity and Next-Generation Geothermal}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Induced-Seismicity-Fact-Sheet.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }