Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power

The report argues that next-generation geothermal technologies, specifically Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and closed-loop systems, can expand U.S. geothermal resource potential from 40 GW to over 5,000 GW by engineering reservoirs in ubiquitous hot rock. It outlines a two-phase pathway: reaching 'liftoff' by 2030 through 2-5 GW of deployment across 5-10 geologic settings, followed by scaling to 90-132 GW by 2050. Key barriers identified include high up-front capital costs, long federal permitting timelines (7-10 years), and the need for power purchase agreements (PPAs) that value clean firm and flexible power. The report highlights that the industry can leverage the existing oil and gas workforce and supply chain to accelerate deployment.

• Next-generation geothermal technologies significantly expand the available resource base in the U.S. from an estimated 40 GW for conventional hydrothermal systems to over 5,000 GW by creating reservoirs in ubiquitous hot rock.
• The U.S. could deploy 90-132 GW of next-generation geothermal power by 2050 to support a decarbonized grid, with potential increasing to over 300 GW if land for other renewables is restricted or other nascent technologies fail to commercialize.
• The cost of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is on a trajectory to reach a national average LCOE of $60-70/MWh by 2030 and a DOE target of $45/MWh by 2035, driven by iterative drilling and reservoir engineering improvements.
• Geothermal power offers unique value as a clean firm and flexible resource; implementing flexible operations to store energy in the subsurface could nearly double its economic deployment by 2050 to 177 GW.
• The industry can leverage a transferable workforce of over 300,000 people from the oil and gas and electric power sectors, with approximately 61% of the oil and gas workforce possessing directly transferable skills for subsurface activities.
• Federal permitting for projects on public lands currently takes 7-10 years, but could be reduced by up to 3 years through streamlined categorical exclusions, tandem resource and plant siting, and centralized permitting expertise.
• High up-front capital costs are a primary barrier, with a 30 MW facility costing approximately $450 million in equity today; the report suggests $5 billion in early capital is needed to finance a portfolio of 10 first-of-a-kind demonstrations.
• Next-generation geothermal can provide additional value streams beyond electricity, including direct-use heat for industrial processes and the extraction of lithium from geothermal brines.

APA

Blankenship, D., Gertler, C., Kamaludeen, M., OConnor, M., & Porse, S. (2024). Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power. Clean Air Task Force. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/09154348/doe-liftoff-nextgen-geothermal.pdf?_gl=1*1yetcss*_ga*R0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuMTEwNzk1MTMxNy4xNzUzNDc4NzUx*_ga_88025VJ2M0*czE3NTM4OTQwNjQkbzkkZzAkdDE3NTM4OTQwNjUkajYwJGwwJGgxOTA0ODQ2NDc4*_fplc*R1RyJTJGRXlvTW96WGJpYXk3UEZtVjNwc2dqNFA4VVFqTSUyRjNNYm9KZjlpRG5scFo3aWxuUUlDc3VxJTJGVyUyQjhaJTJCbnpmTkhrYVZNbjM1Z0xQN0lIUmVRZ05lalhhSURiMTg2U2xBU3FFYndXSU94Y0wzQks3WG03cjYlMkJXZ3NkQUN3JTNEJTNE*_gcl_au*MTc5Mzg2MTIzMi4xNzUzNDc4NzUy

Chicago

Blankenship, Doug, Charles Gertler, Mohamed Kamaludeen, Michael OConnor, and Sean Porse. Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power. Clean Air Task Force, 2024. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/09154348/doe-liftoff-nextgen-geothermal.pdf?_gl=1*1yetcss*_ga*R0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuMTEwNzk1MTMxNy4xNzUzNDc4NzUx*_ga_88025VJ2M0*czE3NTM4OTQwNjQkbzkkZzAkdDE3NTM4OTQwNjUkajYwJGwwJGgxOTA0ODQ2NDc4*_fplc*R1RyJTJGRXlvTW96WGJpYXk3UEZtVjNwc2dqNFA4VVFqTSUyRjNNYm9KZjlpRG5scFo3aWxuUUlDc3VxJTJGVyUyQjhaJTJCbnpmTkhrYVZNbjM1Z0xQN0lIUmVRZ05lalhhSURiMTg2U2xBU3FFYndXSU94Y0wzQks3WG03cjYlMkJXZ3NkQUN3JTNEJTNE*_gcl_au*MTc5Mzg2MTIzMi4xNzUzNDc4NzUy.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Blankenship |first1=Doug |last2=Gertler |first2=Charles |last3=Kamaludeen |first3=Mohamed |last4=OConnor |first4=Michael |last5=Porse |first5=Sean |title=Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=March 2024 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/09154348/doe-liftoff-nextgen-geothermal.pdf?_gl=1*1yetcss*_ga*R0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuMTEwNzk1MTMxNy4xNzUzNDc4NzUx*_ga_88025VJ2M0*czE3NTM4OTQwNjQkbzkkZzAkdDE3NTM4OTQwNjUkajYwJGwwJGgxOTA0ODQ2NDc4*_fplc*R1RyJTJGRXlvTW96WGJpYXk3UEZtVjNwc2dqNFA4VVFqTSUyRjNNYm9KZjlpRG5scFo3aWxuUUlDc3VxJTJGVyUyQjhaJTJCbnpmTkhrYVZNbjM1Z0xQN0lIUmVRZ05lalhhSURiMTg2U2xBU3FFYndXSU94Y0wzQks3WG03cjYlMkJXZ3NkQUN3JTNEJTNE*_gcl_au*MTc5Mzg2MTIzMi4xNzUzNDc4NzUy |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{blankenship2024pathways, author = {Blankenship, Doug and Gertler, Charles and Kamaludeen, Mohamed and OConnor, Michael and Porse, Sean}, title = {{Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/09154348/doe-liftoff-nextgen-geothermal.pdf?_gl=1*1yetcss*_ga*R0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuR0ExLjEuMTEwNzk1MTMxNy4xNzUzNDc4NzUx*_ga_88025VJ2M0*czE3NTM4OTQwNjQkbzkkZzAkdDE3NTM4OTQwNjUkajYwJGwwJGgxOTA0ODQ2NDc4*_fplc*R1RyJTJGRXlvTW96WGJpYXk3UEZtVjNwc2dqNFA4VVFqTSUyRjNNYm9KZjlpRG5scFo3aWxuUUlDc3VxJTJGVyUyQjhaJTJCbnpmTkhrYVZNbjM1Z0xQN0lIUmVRZ05lalhhSURiMTg2U2xBU3FFYndXSU94Y0wzQks3WG03cjYlMkJXZ3NkQUN3JTNEJTNE*_gcl_au*MTc5Mzg2MTIzMi4xNzUzNDc4NzUy}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }