Diesel Health Impacts Methodology

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) utilizes the U.S. EPA's CO-Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) screening model to estimate health impacts from 2026 diesel emissions. The methodology employs a damage function approach to translate emissions into ambient PM2.5 concentrations, then into adverse health effects such as premature mortality, and finally into monetized economic damages. For 2026, national attributable premature mortality is estimated to range from 3,700 to 8,500 deaths. Additionally, CATF calculates cancer risk using a California Air Resources Board (CARB) risk factor, estimating 220 lifetime cancers per million population for 2026 based on projected concentrations of 0.25 ug/m3.

• CATF uses the U.S. EPA's CO-Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) screening model to estimate health impacts from 2026 diesel engine emissions, including highway and off-highway sectors, by analyzing the contribution of emissions to ambient concentrations of particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5).
• The estimated national premature mortality attributable to diesel particulate emissions for 2026 ranges from 3,700 to 8,500 deaths. This follows a downward trend from 2016, where premature mortality ranged from 6,300 to 14,200, and 2023, where it dropped to between 3,900 and 8,800.
• The methodology for calculating economic damages involves a three-step process: modeling changes in ambient air pollution, calculating associated adverse health effects (such as premature mortality, hospital admissions, and asthma exacerbation), and assigning economic values using unit values like the value of statistical life (VSL), cost of illness (COI), and willingness to pay (WTP).
• Using a 2015 California Air Resources Board (CARB) risk factor of 8.94 x 10-4, CATF calculates the national lifetime cancer risk from exposure to diesel particulate for 2026 to be 220 cancers per million population, based on projected concentrations of 0.25 ug/m3.

APA

Clean Air Task Force (2025). Diesel Health Impacts Methodology. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01181553/Diesel-Health-Impacts-Methodology.pdf

Chicago

Clean Air Task Force. Diesel Health Impacts Methodology. 2025. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01181553/Diesel-Health-Impacts-Methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Clean Air Task Force |title=Diesel Health Impacts Methodology |date=April 2025 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01181553/Diesel-Health-Impacts-Methodology.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleanairtaskforce2025diesel, author = {{Clean Air Task Force}}, title = {{Diesel Health Impacts Methodology}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01181553/Diesel-Health-Impacts-Methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }