Advanced Clean Trucks Rule Impact Methodology

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) developed an in-house methodology to model the impact of the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule on diesel emissions and public health. By layering ACT's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales mandates onto U.S. EPA emissions projections for 2032 and 2038, the model estimates avoided diesel fuel consumption and subsequent pollutant reductions. The analysis considers three scenarios: current adoption (11 states), expanded adoption (20 states), and full adoption across 48 contiguous states. To determine health impacts, the model uses the EPA's CO-Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) screening model to translate emission reductions into lives saved. For example, the model estimates that ACT enforcement in California in 2038 would reduce on-road diesel use by 547,681 gallons, representing a 16% reduction compared to a business-as-usual case, which would save 94 lives.

• The CATF impact model estimates avoided emissions and lives saved by calculating the decrease in diesel fuel consumption caused by the ACT rule, assuming that emission changes are proportional to fuel consumption reductions.
• The methodology evaluates three specific adoption scenarios for the ACT rule for the years 2032 and 2038: the current 11 states that have adopted the rule, a hypothetical 20-state scenario including other California vehicle regulation adopters, and a hypothetical scenario where all 48 contiguous states adopt the regulation.
• To estimate new truck sales subject to ACT, the model combines EPA national vehicle miles traveled (VMT) projections with vehicle retirement estimates; the latter assumes that approximately 45% of the 2022 truck stock must be replaced by 2038.
• Health impacts are calculated using the U.S. EPA's CO-Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) screening model, which translates the percentage of avoided emissions into a number of lives saved at state, county, and metro area levels.

APA

Clean Air Task Force (2025). Advanced Clean Trucks Rule Impact Methodology. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22144113/Advanced-Clean-Trucks-Rule-Impact-Methodology.pdf

Chicago

Clean Air Task Force. Advanced Clean Trucks Rule Impact Methodology. 2025. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22144113/Advanced-Clean-Trucks-Rule-Impact-Methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Clean Air Task Force |title=Advanced Clean Trucks Rule Impact Methodology |date=April 2025 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22144113/Advanced-Clean-Trucks-Rule-Impact-Methodology.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleanairtaskforce2025advanced, author = {{Clean Air Task Force}}, title = {{Advanced Clean Trucks Rule Impact Methodology}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22144113/Advanced-Clean-Trucks-Rule-Impact-Methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }