De-Risking Decarbonization

The author contends that a 100 percent renewable energy pathway to decarbonization is risky because it depends on the simultaneous success of multiple uncertain elements, including wind and solar scaling, transmission grid expansion, seasonal storage, load management, and public funding. Using a probabilistic example, the text illustrates that if five essential elements each have a 90% chance of success, the cumulative probability of success drops to 59%. The document proposes 'de-risking' the energy transition by pursuing multiple independent technology paths in parallel, which mathematically increases the overall likelihood of achieving full decarbonization.

• Relying exclusively on 100 percent renewable energy to achieve full decarbonization by mid-century is considered a risky strategy because it depends on several essential but uncertain elements: wind and solar scaling, a nationwide transmission grid, seasonal storage, load management programs, and public acceptance of system costs.
• The cumulative risk of a single-path strategy is high; if five necessary components each have a 90% probability of success, the overall chance of achieving full decarbonization is only 59%.

APA

Phillips, B. (2018). De-Risking Decarbonization. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/2018/11/de-risking-decarbonization/

Chicago

Phillips, Bruce. De-Risking Decarbonization. Clean Air Task Force, 2018. https://www.catf.us/2018/11/de-risking-decarbonization/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Phillips |first1=Bruce |title=De-Risking Decarbonization |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=30 November 2018 |url=https://www.catf.us/2018/11/de-risking-decarbonization/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{phillips2018derisking, author = {Phillips, Bruce}, title = {{De-Risking Decarbonization}}, publisher = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2018}, month = nov, url = {https://www.catf.us/2018/11/de-risking-decarbonization/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }