The RFS, the Rebound Effect, and an Additional 431 Million Tons of CO2

The author contends that the RFS2 biofuel mandate leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions because increased fuel supply lowers prices, encouraging higher overall consumption. Citing a study by Hill et al., the text asserts that even with a conservative 50% gasoline displacement rate, the RFS2 is projected to result in a cumulative increase of 431 million metric tons of CO2 from 2006 to 2022.

• The 'rebound effect' occurs when policies designed to reduce a commodity's use inadvertently lower its price, leading consumers to use more of it; in the case of the RFS2, increased biofuel supply lowers fuel prices, causing drivers to buy more fuel and emit more greenhouse gases.
• The net climate impact of the RFS2 depends on the displacement rate of fossil fuels; if displacement is not one-for-one, emissions only decrease if the carbon intensity savings outweigh the increase in total fuel use.
• Research indicates low displacement rates for RFS2 biofuels; one CATF-supported analysis by Steven Stoft found that every 100 gallons of mandated biofuel displaced only 32 energy-equivalent gallons of petroleum fuel.
• A study by Hill, Tajibaeva, and Polasky concludes that assuming a conservative 50% displacement rate and that all biofuels meet GHG targets, the RFS2 will cause a net increase of 22 million metric tons of GHG emissions in 2022 and a cumulative increase of 431 million metric tons from 2006 to 2022.

APA

Lewis, J. (2016). The RFS, the Rebound Effect, and an Additional 431 Million Tons of CO2. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/2016/09/the-rfs-the-rebound-effect-and-an-additional-431-million-tons-of-co2/

Chicago

Lewis, Jonathan. The RFS, the Rebound Effect, and an Additional 431 Million Tons of CO2. Clean Air Task Force, 2016. https://www.catf.us/2016/09/the-rfs-the-rebound-effect-and-an-additional-431-million-tons-of-co2/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Lewis |first1=Jonathan |title=The RFS, the Rebound Effect, and an Additional 431 Million Tons of CO2 |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=13 September 2016 |url=https://www.catf.us/2016/09/the-rfs-the-rebound-effect-and-an-additional-431-million-tons-of-co2/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{lewis2016rfs, author = {Lewis, Jonathan}, title = {{The RFS, the Rebound Effect, and an Additional 431 Million Tons of CO2}}, publisher = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2016}, month = sep, url = {https://www.catf.us/2016/09/the-rfs-the-rebound-effect-and-an-additional-431-million-tons-of-co2/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }