{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"organization":["Institute for Security Studies"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":1466,"relation":"eq"},"page":9,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=9","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=10","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-000238","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000238","title":"Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-25","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario is projected to accelerate Africa's average annual economic growth to 6% between 2027 and 2050, resulting in a total GDP nearly US$1 trillion higher than the baseline by 2050. This trajectory is expected to increase average GDP per capita by approximately US$510 and reduce the number of people in extreme poverty by 63 million, bringing the poverty rate down to 11.5% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000238#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, Africa's economy is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 6% from 2027 to 2050, which is one percentage point higher than the 5% growth projected in the Current Path scenario. This would result in a total GDP increase of nearly US$948 billion (in 2017 dollars) by 2050 relative to the baseline, with the most significant absolute increases occurring in South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000238#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"By 2050, the average GDP per capita in Africa (at purchasing power parity) is projected to be approximately US$510 higher under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario than under the Current Path, despite a projected population exceeding 2.5 billion by that year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000238#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The combination of technological innovations and improved transport and energy infrastructure is projected to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty to 299 million by 2050, which is 63 million fewer than the Current Path. This would lower the poverty rate to 11.5%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the baseline. The most significant absolute reductions in poverty are expected in Nigeria and DR Congo, with low-income countries seeing the largest gains (38.6 million fewer people in poverty) and lower-middle-income countries seeing 23 million fewer.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000238#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy infrastructure","economic growth"],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Egypt","South Africa","Democratic Republic of the Congo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000267","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000267","title":"AFRICA LEAPFROGGING FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-25","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=01-introduction","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document defines development leapfrogging as the ability of developing economies to skip intermediate technological stages and move directly to advanced systems. It argues that Africa is uniquely positioned for this due to limited legacy infrastructure, which reduces 'path dependency' and allows for the adoption of decentralised and digital solutions. Key examples include mobile finance, solar mini-grids, and the use of AI in agriculture and health. However, the document notes that full realisation of this potential depends on enabling conditions such as regulatory frameworks, digital infrastructure, and skilled human capital.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000267#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Development leapfrogging allows developing economies to bypass the historical industrial pathways of developed nations by adopting newer technologies and institutional models, leading to faster productivity gains.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000267#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa's lack of extensive legacy infrastructure, such as centralised energy grids and large transport networks, provides a strategic advantage by reducing path dependency and increasing flexibility to adopt efficient new technologies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000267#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current examples of leapfrogging in Africa include the use of drones for precision agriculture and logistics, mobile communications for financial inclusion, and solar mini-grids for rural electricity access.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000267#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While AI enhances productivity in sectors like health diagnostics and crop monitoring, its progress is hindered by limited data ecosystems, skills shortages, and concerns regarding data governance and bias.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000267#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The successful deployment of frontier technologies in Africa is contingent upon supportive enabling conditions, specifically innovation policies, regulatory frameworks, digital infrastructure investments, and skills development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000267#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","precision agriculture"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["thematic analysis","scenario modelling"]},{"id":"issafri-000276","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000276","title":"The origins of Africa’s infrastructure deficit","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-25","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=11-large-infrastructure&topic=02-origins-of-africa-infrastructure-deficit","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research paper argues that Africa's infrastructure deficit is a cumulative result of colonial-era designs focused on extraction, post-independence mismanagement, and the impact of 1980s debt crises and Structural Adjustment Programs. It notes that colonial railways shaped current urban locations and that recent investments have often focused on prestige projects or specific corridors funded by external partners like China.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000276#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Colonial-era infrastructure was designed for foreign extraction and military purposes rather than domestic development, creating linear corridors from resource-rich areas to ports. This left systems fragmented and poorly aligned with population needs, except in areas of permanent European settlement like South Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000276#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Post-independence infrastructure was characterized by a shift from rail to road transport, the pursuit of 'white elephant' prestige projects—particularly in the 1980s following the Lagos Plan of Action—and a lack of basic urban infrastructure like sanitation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000276#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The debt crises of the 1980s and subsequent Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) led to a significant decline in public infrastructure spending and deferred maintenance. SAPs prioritized fiscal consolidation and privatization, which failed to attract sufficient private investment in energy, transport, and water sectors, though telecommunications did see growth through operators like MTN, Vodacom, and Airtel.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000276#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Recent infrastructure trends since the 2000s include grandiose urban 'smart city' projects inspired by cities like Dubai and Singapore, as well as a resurgence in railway construction in Eastern Africa funded by China, such as the Addis Ababa–Djibouti and Mombasa–Nairobi lines.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000276#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["rail transport","water distribution system","sanitation","urban planning","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Ghana","South Africa","Mozambique","Kenya","Ethiopia","Djibouti","Nairobi"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["historical analysis","policy analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000277","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000277","title":"Technological Leapfrogging and the Formalisation of Africa’s Informal Sector","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-25","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=05-technological-leapfrogging","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper examines the role of technological leapfrogging in transitioning Africa's large informal economy into the formal sector. It highlights that in 2024, the informal sector accounted for 58% of the labour force and 27% of GDP, with projections suggesting a decline to 50% of the labour force and 24% of GDP by 2050. The author identifies digital ID systems as the critical first step for formalisation, noting that roughly half of the world's one billion people without official identification live in Africa. The document asserts that digitisation—including biometric IDs, mobile payment solutions, and PAYG models—can expand the tax base and improve access to credit and social protections without imposing heavy compliance costs on small-scale operators.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000277#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa's informal sector represents a significant portion of the economy, though it is projected to shrink slightly by 2050. In 2024, it comprised approximately 27% of GDP and 58% of the total labour force, with forecasts predicting a decrease to 24% of GDP and 50% of the labour force by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000277#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Digital ID systems are identified as the essential starting point for formalisation. Africa is home to approximately half of the one billion people globally who lack official identification, although countries like Nigeria and South Africa have advanced biometric ID programs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000277#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Widespread adoption of digital ID coverage has the potential to generate significant economic value. A McKinsey study involving seven countries, including Ethiopia and Nigeria, estimated that such coverage could unlock value equal to 3–13% of GDP by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000277#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Technological tools allow governments to expand the tax base and increase domestic revenue mobilisation with low burdens on small operators. Specifically, mobile payment platforms, biometric IDs, and digital transaction records enable the monitoring of economic activity without onerous compliance requirements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000277#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","Nigeria","Brazil","People's Republic of China","Ethiopia","India","United Kingdom","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic forecasting","policy analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000309","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000309","title":"Progress and Challenges with Infrastructure in Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-25","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=11-large-infrastructure&topic=03-progress-challenges","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Africa has seen infrastructure improvements, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, but continues to face a substantial deficit driven by population growth and urbanisation. Financing is characterized by a tension between concessional Western multilateral loans and more commercial, opaque Chinese lending via the Belt and Road Initiative. Recent efforts, such as the PIDA framework and the 2025 Africa Infrastructure Financing Summit, aim to align investment with pan-African priorities and global sustainability goals, including a transition toward renewables and electric mobility.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000309#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Infrastructure development in Africa has improved over the last two decades, though progress varies by region. Between 2003 and 2025, sub-Saharan Africa increased its average Africa Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) score by approximately 50%, while North Africa saw a more modest increase of about 12% due to its higher starting baseline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000309#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite progress, a significant infrastructure deficit remains because public financing is limited by debt and competing priorities in health and education, while private investment is unevenly distributed across a few commercially viable projects and countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000309#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China has become a primary source of infrastructure finance through the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on trade-enabling assets like roads, railways, and ports. However, Chinese lending is often less transparent and carries higher interest rates and shorter maturities compared to the more concessional and transparent financing provided by the IMF and World Bank.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000309#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African Union's Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) is working to align financing with continental priorities. At the October 2025 Africa Infrastructure Financing Summit in Luanda, investors committed US$18 billion to fund 38 bankable projects and 11 additional projects aligned with the AU's blueprint.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000309#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Infrastructure planning is shifting toward sustainability and climate resilience, specifically through the adoption of renewables and electric mobility. A notable example is the 2024 launch of the Dakar Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Senegal, the first large-scale fully electric BRT network in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000309#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["transportation","climate resilience","renewable energy","electromobility","sustainable finance","Sustainable Development Goals","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["North Africa","sub-Saharan Africa","Senegal","Luanda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","comparative analysis","policy assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000324","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000324","title":"Large Infrastructure Scenario Impact on Financing for Infrastructure","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-25","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=11-large-infrastructure&topic=10-scenario-impact","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The analysis compares two scenarios for African infrastructure financing up to 2050. Under the 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario, government spending is projected to reach US$267 billion by 2050, exceeding the 'Current Path' forecast by US$44 billion. Average annual public spending from 2027 to 2050 is expected to be US$171 billion in this scenario, compared to US$150 billion under the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000324#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"National governments are the lead funders of infrastructure in Africa, providing 41% of total commitments between 2016 and 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000324#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"By 2050, government spending on infrastructure under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario is projected to be US$267 billion (in 2017 constant dollars), which is US$44 billion more than the US$223 billion forecast for the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000324#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 2027 and 2050, the average annual public infrastructure spending under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario is projected at US$171 billion (2017 constant dollars), whereas the Current Path projects US$150 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000324#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-001927","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001927","title":"Somali piracy returns: a warning from the Western Indian Ocean","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-18","source_url":"https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somali-piracy-returns-a-warning-from-the-western-indian-ocean","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Piracy has re-emerged off Somalia's coast in 2026, with the Joint Maritime Information Center raising its threat assessment to 'severe' following several hijackings in April and May. The document highlights that while international naval efforts like Operation Atalanta and Combined Task Force 151 have previously suppressed piracy, they are currently stretched thin due to crises in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The author argues that piracy is driven by the collapse of sea-dependent livelihoods caused by illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. While Türkiye has signed agreements to safeguard Somali territorial waters, the document suggests Turkish forces may prioritize their own deep-sea drilling assets. The report concludes that unless the Somali federal government and partners address community grievances and governance gaps, the region remains vulnerable to a sustained piracy cycle.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001927#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Piracy has returned to the Somali coast in 2026, with the Joint Maritime Information Center upgrading the threat level to 'severe' after multiple attacks on dhows and merchant vessels in April and May.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001927#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The resurgence of piracy is linked to the collapse of coastal livelihoods, specifically driven by illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing which leaves populations with few income alternatives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001927#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"International naval responses are currently compromised by redeployments to the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and the US-led Combined Task Force 151 is hindered by the US-Iran conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001927#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Türkiye has assumed responsibility for safeguarding Somalia's territorial waters through agreements signed since 2024, but may prioritize protecting its own deep-sea drilling mission that arrived in April 2026.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001927#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Recent hijackings, such as the seizure of the Eureka oil tanker on 2 May, indicate a potential increase in sophistication and the possible emergence of a third pirate group.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001927#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["governance"],"geography_discussed":["Gulf of Aden","Yemen","Puntland","Saudi Arabia","Strait of Hormuz","Red Sea","Bahrain","Turkey","Galmudug"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","security assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000029","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000029","title":"AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-04","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=01-introduction","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Africa faces a critical gap between rapid labour force growth and the creation of formal jobs. By 2043, the labour force is expected to almost double from its 2023 level of 576 million. While the services sector continues to dominate GDP, a 'Combined' scenario involving pro-growth policies could increase Africa's GDP to US$8.9 trillion by 2043, compared to US$6.4 trillion on the 'Current Path'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000029#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa's labour force is growing significantly faster than the demand for formal employment, with only 2.6 to 3 million formal jobs created annually, leading to a concentration of growth in the informal sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000029#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African labour force is projected to almost double by 2043 from its 2023 size of 576 million, with nearly 25% of all global labour force entrants coming from Africa by that date.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000029#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa's labour force participation rate is higher than the global average, reaching 64.5% for the continent and 67.7% for sub-Saharan Africa in 2023, compared to a global average of 60.5%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000029#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic forecasts for 2043 show that a 'Combined' scenario with pro-growth policies would result in a GDP of US$8.9 trillion, a 39.5% increase over the 'Current Path' forecast of US$6.4 trillion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000029#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African economy is shifting toward services; on the 'Current Path', the services sector's contribution to GDP is expected to rise from 53% in 2023 to 56.5% by 2043, while agriculture's share is forecast to drop from 14% to 7.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000029#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["economic growth","gross domestic product","industrial manufacturing"],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa","People's Republic of China","World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000169","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000169","title":"Size and Quality of Labour in Africa compared with China and India","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-04","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=04-size-and-quality-of-labour","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes Africa's labour force relative to China and India, noting that while Africa has a rapidly growing and youthful workforce that could attract labour-intensive industries, it lags significantly in education, health, and overall labour productivity. Forecasts suggest that without substantial improvements in human capital, the productivity gap between Africa and its Asian counterparts will widen by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000169#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa's labour force is growing rapidly and is expected to surpass China's by 2034 and exceed 1 billion people by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000169#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa significantly trails China and India in adult education levels. In 2023, the mean years of education for African adults was 6.8 years, compared to 7.6 in India and 8.9 in China. This gap is forecast to widen by 2043 on the 'Current Path' scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000169#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Health outcomes in Africa are poorer than in China and India, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In 2023, Africa's burden of ill health was nearly double that of China, with 392,000 DALYs per million people compared to China's 209,000.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000169#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African labour productivity is substantially lower than that of China and India and is forecast to decline further in relative terms. By 2043, African labour productivity is projected to be less than half of India's and only about 13% of China's.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000169#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["public health","economic development"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["comparative analysis","forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-000187","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000187","title":"AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-04","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=09-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report warns that Africa's labour force growth is outstripping job supply, leaving many dependent on a low-productivity informal sector. It argues that while agriculture and services will provide most jobs, manufacturing offers the highest long-term impact. To avoid social instability and the risk of a missed demographic dividend, the authors advocate for digitisation to formalise the informal economy, massive upskilling in AI and STEM, and a shift in mindset from seeking jobs to creating them through entrepreneurship.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000187#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current trends indicate that the growth of the African labour force will exceed the number of available jobs, forcing many citizens into an informal sector marked by income insecurity, low productivity, and a lack of social protection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000187#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While agriculture and services are expected to provide the most additional employment due to their current economic dominance, the manufacturing sector is identified as having the largest positive impact on job creation in the medium and long term because of its capacity for technological integration and value addition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000187#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The gap between the expectations of connected youth and their actual opportunities could lead to increased civil unrest, social discontent, and higher rates of legal or irregular migration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000187#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Digitisation is presented as a critical tool to empower the informal sector by providing access to finance and creating productive linkages, as well as modernising agriculture for smallholder farmers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000187#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African governments and agencies are implementing AI strategies focused on upskilling, entrepreneurship, and infrastructure. Specific examples include Nigeria's National AI Strategy (NAIS), which aims to provide AI skills to 70% of youth aged 16-35 by 2027, and Rwanda's initiative for 100% internet coverage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000187#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To effectively reduce unemployment and poverty, the report argues for a cultural shift toward entrepreneurship—moving from 'getting an education to get a job' to 'getting an education to create jobs'—and suggests that massive scale social grants and public work programs will be necessary for survival for many.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000187#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agriculture","industrial manufacturing"],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Kenya","Ghana","Rwanda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","policy analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000306","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000306","title":"Defining the concept of work","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-04","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=02-concept-of-work","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines the International Labour Organisation's definition of employment and highlights the disconnect between having a job and escaping poverty. It identifies the 'working poor' as those whose employment incomes are insufficient to lift them out of extreme poverty, noting that 29.3% of employed people in Africa lived below US$2.15 per day in 2024, with figures exceeding 70% in Madagascar and the DR Congo.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000306#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines an employed person as anyone aged 15 or older who has worked at least one hour for pay in a given week, or is temporarily absent for reasons such as illness, maternity, or annual leave, regardless of whether the employment is formal or informal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000306#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'working poor' are defined as the employed population living in extreme poverty because their employment-related incomes cannot ensure decent living conditions or lift their families out of poverty. This is driven by factors such as underemployment, high dependency ratios, a high cost of living, and low wages.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000306#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In 2024, approximately 238 million employed people globally (6.9%) lived in extreme poverty, defined as less than US$2.15 per day in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000306#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa has a higher proportion of working poor than other regions, with 29.3% of the total employed labour force in Africa estimated to be living below US$2.15 per day in 2024. In Madagascar and the DR Congo, this figure exceeds 70% of the employed labour force.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000306#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Democratic Republic of the Congo","South Africa","Madagascar"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"issafri-000326","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000326","title":"AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-04","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that African governments must rely on social grants and employment schemes to support populations not absorbed by the economy. It highlights South Africa's expansive but potentially unsustainable grant system and the Expanded Public Works Programme. The text discusses the transition from conditional to universal grants and the use of biometric identification systems, like India's Aadhaar, to reduce corruption. A critical barrier identified is Africa's low tax-to-GDP ratio (16.5%), exacerbated by tax breaks for investors, which limits the funding available for these social protections.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000326#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa has significantly expanded its social grant system, with beneficiaries increasing from four million in 1994 to over 28 million today, though 40% of the population still lives in poverty based on a US$6.85 extreme poverty benchmark.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000326#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) in South Africa has provided over eight million work opportunities since 2004, serving as a short-term bridge to improve employability through skills and experience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000326#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Digital biometric identification systems, such as India's Aadhaar project which enrolled over 1.4 billion adults, can mitigate corruption in grant distribution by enabling direct transfers to bank accounts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000326#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African governments face severe funding constraints for social programs due to a low average tax-to-GDP ratio of 16.5%, which is lower than that of Asia and the Pacific (19.1%), Latin America and the Caribbean (21.9%), and OECD countries (33.5%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000326#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia successfully expanded its tax base between 2007 and 2013, with total taxes collected increasing from US$1.3 billion to US$3.8 billion, and the tax contribution to government revenue rising from 48% in 2007 to 82% in 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000326#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["poverty reduction","fiscal policy"],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","India","Ethiopia","Kenya","Brazil","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","policy analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000969","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000969","title":"India and Africa: bridging the gap between words and deeds","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1779880998089-20260527-africa-india-report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the mismatch between India's diplomatic rhetoric and its actual economic and institutional footprint in Africa. While India possesses comparative advantages rooted in historical ties, shared post-colonial values, and expertise in digital public infrastructure and pharmaceuticals, it lags behind rivals like China in trade, investment, and credit provision. The author identifies fiscal constraints, bureaucratic inefficiency, and reputational risks as primary barriers and recommends a coordinated 'multi-actor Africa policy' focused on high-impact sectors and strategic partnerships with anchor states including South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000969#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"India possesses significant comparative advantages in Africa based on historical links, shared developmental challenges, and a non-paternalistic partnership model. This includes a diaspora of nearly three million people of Indian origin living across all 54 African countries, which serves as a conduit for diplomatic and commercial interaction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000969#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a substantial gap between India's stated strategic ambitions and its material economic impact in Africa. In 2023, India's bilateral credit to Africa was approximately US$4.7 billion, which is significantly lower than China's estimated US$62 billion for the same period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000969#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India has successfully exported digital governance architectures to Africa, with Kenya adapting India's Aadhaar system for its Huduma Namba identity management and Rwanda implementing the Irembo platform based on features from India's Unified Payments Interface and DigiLocker.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000969#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India's health diplomacy is a key strength, providing an estimated 40% to 45% of Africa's generic medicines. During the pandemic, the Vaccine Maitri initiative supplied tens of millions of doses to over 40 African states.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000969#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Several factors hinder India's effectiveness in Africa, including tight public finances (with a 2024/25 fiscal deficit of around 4.8% of GDP), bureaucratic fragmentation across multiple delivery entities, and reputational damage caused by controversies involving business interests like the Gupta family and the Adani Group.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000969#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report proposes using four 'strategic anchor states'—South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt—as hubs to pilot and scale initiatives in manufacturing, technology, energy, and logistics to create regional spillover effects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000969#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["trade policy","South–South cooperation"],"geography_discussed":["Kenya","Nigeria","Egypt","Rwanda","Botswana","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","economic analysis","strategic review"]},{"id":"issafri-002044","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002044","title":"ENTREPRENEURS OF INSECURITY","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1779348294119-20260519-CAR-Chad-Cameroon-kidnapping-CAO.report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Kidnapping for ransom (KFR) in Chad has evolved from sporadic rural banditry into a structured, transnational criminal economy, particularly concentrated in the 'Triangle of Death' border region between Chad, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. The report identifies a professionalized hierarchy of actors, including 'godfathers', perpetrators, and community enablers, who exploit state fragility, porous borders, and economic marginalization. While the state relies on fragmented military responses, the report argues that KFR is sustained by a complex interplay of conflict economies, including artisanal gold mining and insurgent activities by groups like ISWAP and Boko Haram. The consequences include mass displacement, eroded trust in state institutions, and generational trauma, necessitating a multi-sectoral strategy that combines security reform with community engagement and legal updates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"KFR in Chad has transitioned from opportunistic roadside banditry in the 1990s to a professionalized, transnational criminal enterprise. In the southwest, specifically Mayo-Kebbi Ouest and Est, at least 1,500 abductions have been recorded over the last 20 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The KFR operational structure consists of three layers: 'godfathers' or sponsors who provide instructions, perpetrators (including ex-soldiers and marginalized pastoralists), and accomplices such as traditional rulers and taxi drivers who act as informants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Perpetrators target 'pockets of solvency', specifically pastoralists, transhumant traders, and gold collectors. In northern Chad, the gold rush in Tibesti has made local and foreign miners from Sudan and Niger primary targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"KFR is intertwined with other forms of abduction, including political kidnappings by state security personnel, cultural abductions for social control, and exploitative kidnappings by terror groups like JAS and ISWAP for sexual slavery or recruitment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Chadian state's response is characterized as fragmented and overly militarized, often ignoring the root socio-economic causes. This has led to a decline in public trust and a 'double taxation' effect where citizens pay both ransoms and fees to security actors for food and fuel.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional security cooperation is hindered by inter-state tensions and a lack of coordinated frameworks. While the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) focuses on terrorism, there is no dedicated collective force specifically targeting KFR in the affected borderlands.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Women's roles in KFR are complex; while often viewed as victims, evidence suggests they also act as perpetrators, providing logistics, surveillance, and gun running, or as enablers within a 'sexual economy' used by kidnappers to gain intelligence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic impact of KFR includes the forced sale of assets to pay ransoms, which leads to rising poverty and generational deprivation. It also disrupts essential services as civil servants, such as teachers and doctors, refuse to relocate to high-risk areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002044#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Cameroon","Central African Republic","Nigeria","Libya","Sudan","Niger","N'Djamena","Mayo-Kebbi Ouest Region","Logone Oriental Region","Tibesti Region"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["thematic report","policy analysis","field research"]},{"id":"issafri-002045","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002045","title":"Peace & Security Council Report","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1782295088731-psc-report-185-2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the African Union's (AU) efforts to create a coherent foreign policy framework to navigate a fragmented international order, while highlighting the need for deeper economic integration similar to the EU. It details the evolving threat of Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Lake Chad Basin and the emerging extremist hub in the Borgu-Kainji axis. Additionally, it argues for a youth-focused approach to combat transnational organized crime, citing the rise of cybercrime and drug trafficking in West Africa. Finally, it outlines Burundi's priorities as AU chair, emphasizing water security, youth empowerment, and the urgent need for internal financial autonomy to ensure political sovereignty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002045#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The African Union is working toward a foreign policy framework to address a \"fragmented international order\" and improve collective bargaining, though it lacks the supranational authority and deep economic integration that support the European Union's external coordination.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002045#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Lake Chad Basin, Boko Haram factions have adapted by using fragmented commandos and rear bases in forests and islands. By 2025, ISWAP demonstrated a qualitative leap in capability through the use of drones for combat and intelligence and improved improvised explosive devices (IEDs).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002045#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Borgu-Kainji axis, spanning parts of Nigeria, Benin, and Niger, is emerging as a convergence zone for extremist groups. Jihadist-group violence in this region rose by 86% from 2024 to 2025, with the death toll increasing by 262%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002045#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transnational organized crime (TOC) in Africa is increasingly driven by youth due to socioeconomic failures. This includes the rise of 'kush' drug abuse in Sierra Leone and Liberia, and 'hustling kingdoms'—informal cybercrime academies—in Nigeria and Ghana.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002045#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nigerian confraternities have evolved into global criminal networks involved in cyberfraud and money-laundering; for example, a 2017 Canadian investigation dismantled a network estimated at US$5 billion linked to these groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002045#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African Union faces a critical lack of financial autonomy, with some programs remaining overwhelmingly funded by external partners up to 90%, which limits the organization's strategic autonomy and political sovereignty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002045#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate finance","water security","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["World","Nigeria","Niger","Benin","Chad","Cameroon","Liberia","Sierra Leone","Ghana","Burundi","South Africa","Kenya","Egypt","Morocco"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","security assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000833","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000833","title":"Niger-Benin: a narrow window for diplomatic reset","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-23","source_url":"https://issafrica.org/iss-today/niger-benin-a-narrow-window-for-diplomatic-reset","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The briefing examines the strained bilateral relationship between Benin and Niger following Niger's 2023 coup and the subsequent withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) from ECOWAS. It highlights how the election of Romuald Wadagni in Benin on 12 April 2026 offers a window for de-escalation, as both nations face economic losses and rising insecurity. The author suggests that the African Union, specifically through the AU Mission for Mali and the Sahel, is best positioned to facilitate a formal reset based on mutual territorial assurances to overcome mistrust and security gaps in the W-Arly-Pendjari Complex.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000833#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The relationship between Benin and Niger has been severely strained since Niger's 2023 coup, characterized by border closures, mutual accusations of supporting coups, and disputes over a French military presence in northern Benin.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000833#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic interdependencies persist despite diplomatic collapse, most notably the Niger-Benin oil pipeline, which has continued to operate intermittently despite both nations attempting to weaponize it in 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000833#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The diplomatic crisis has caused significant economic damage to Benin's port of Cotonou, where imports dropped by 34% and the number of vessels decreased by approximately 24% between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000833#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Security in the Benin-Niger-Nigeria border region has deteriorated, with violence increasing by 86% from 2024 to 2025, including a deadly attack in April 2025 that killed 54 Beninese soldiers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000833#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African Union (AU) is identified as the most credible facilitator for a reset, specifically through the AU Mission for Mali and the Sahel, which can leverage its Bamako base and engagement with both AES and ECOWAS.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000833#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Burkina Faso","Ivory Coast","Mali","Nigeria","France","W-Arly-Pendjari Complex","Alibori Department","Atakora Department","Kourou-Koalou area"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","diplomatic assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000010","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000010","title":"Agriculture","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-21","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes the stagnation of African agricultural productivity, attributing it to historical factors like slavery, colonialism, and a lack of tenure reform. It contrasts a 'Current Path' forecast—characterized by increasing food import dependence and low yields—with an 'Agriculture scenario' where targeted interventions in AgTech, irrigation, and soil health lead to significant poverty reduction and GDP growth. The report emphasizes the need for food self-sufficiency and value addition within Africa over a reliance on raw commodity exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa's agricultural yields have historically lagged behind the rest of the world; by 2020, they were approximately 3.7 tons per hectare below the global average.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the 'Current Path' forecast, Africa's agricultural import bill is projected to rise from US$114 billion in 2019 to US$510 billion by 2043, increasing vulnerability to international price fluctuations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Agriculture scenario' predicts that by 2043, Africa could produce 486 million metric tons of additional food compared to the Current Path, reducing the import bill by US$212 billion and increasing export earnings by US$227.6 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Insecure land tenure is a primary barrier to productivity; an estimated 90% of rural land in Africa is not formally documented, and up to 60% of land in sub-Saharan Africa is held under customary ownership.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change and environmental degradation severely impact yields, with 95% of the continent's cultivation relying on rain rather than irrigation, and an estimated 4 million hectares of forest cut down annually.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa exports high volumes of raw commodities with minimal value addition; for example, 90% of the continent's cashew nuts are exported for processing overseas, and Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire receive only 5% to 6% of the US$130bn annual cocoa market revenue.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural technologies (AgTech), including AI-driven soil mapping and mobile-based credit and insurance, can significantly increase farm-level incomes and yields.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Agriculture scenario' is expected to reduce the number of extremely poor Africans (living on less than US$1.90 daily) to 339 million (15%) by 2043, compared to 398 million (18%) in the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 10-year Fertilizer and Soil Health Action Plan 2023-2033 aims to triple fertiliser use from 18 kg/ha in 2020 to 54 kg/ha by 2033.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Poor infrastructure and high post-harvest losses hinder food security; agricultural loss and waste in Africa is 24%, reaching up to 30% in West Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000010#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agricultural productivity","food security","climate change adaptation","agricultural irrigation","deforestation","land tenure","smallholder","carbon dioxide emissions","ecological restoration"],"geography_discussed":["Zimbabwe","People's Republic of China","Brazil","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Angola","Egypt","South Africa","Ethiopia","Ghana","Ivory Coast","Nigeria","Morocco","Kenya","Uganda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","historical analysis","scenario modeling","policy assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000030","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000030","title":"Conclusion: Aiming at food security and sustainable economic growth","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-21","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=11-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report concludes that Africa's path to economic development lies in transitioning from a reliance on global export markets to a focus on domestic food self-sufficiency. It emphasizes the need for coordinated government support for smallholder farmers, investment in AgTech, and the adoption of sustainable, indigenous farming practices to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change, particularly in the Sahel region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000030#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"African leaders should shift their focus from international agricultural trade toward the production of staple foods for domestic consumption and the advancement of regional trade. Prioritising staple foods and intensive smallholder farming can increase rural incomes and reduce poverty, eventually enabling the growth of agribusiness and large-scale exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000030#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change poses a significant threat to African agriculture, with the Sahel region experiencing the most substantial and sustained decline in rainfall recorded globally. While the IFs forecasting platform includes some climate effects, it may underestimate the total impact of temperature and rainfall variability, including floods, wildfires, and droughts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000030#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural technology (AgTech) and digital platforms can mitigate risks for smallholder farmers by providing non-traditional credit assessments, insurance, and direct connections to vendors. These tools are critical because commercial bank lending to the agricultural sector is currently less than 4%, hampered by high risks, lack of collateral, and poor infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000030#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A successful agricultural transition requires focusing on indigenous crops—such as cassava, cowpea, soybeans, and yams—and sustainable indigenous practices. Low- and lower-middle-income countries should prioritise food self-sufficiency and move up the agro-processing value chain before attempting to enter global export markets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000030#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food security","smallholder","climate change","sustainable agriculture","climate change adaptation","rain"],"geography_discussed":["Sahel","South Africa","Mali","Niger","Burkina Faso","Chad","Mauritania","Ghana","Ivory Coast"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario modelling","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"issafri-000039","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000039","title":"Discrimination in the Family","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-21","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=04-discrimination","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed"],"summary":{"text":"The report details systemic gender discrimination in African households, highlighting the prevalence of child marriage, the disproportionate burden of unpaid care work on women, and legal and cultural barriers to equal divorce and inheritance rights.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000039#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Child marriage remains widespread in Africa, with an estimated 23% of girls marrying before age 18 and the continent hosting 130 million child brides. While the prevalence declined by seven percentage points between 2009 and 2018, Africa's 2021 Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI) score for child marriage was 41, which is worse than the global average of 36.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000039#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The highest prevalence of child marriage is found in West Africa (SIGI score of 46) and Central Africa (45), with Niger having the highest global rate at 62%. Conversely, countries with low levels of child marriage include Algeria, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, and Tunisia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000039#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["West Africa","Central Africa","North Africa","Niger","Central African Republic","Chad","Mali","Mozambique","Burkina Faso","South Sudan","Guinea","Nigeria","Algeria","Namibia","Rwanda","South Africa","Tunisia","Ivory Coast","Uganda","Somalia","Mauritania","Botswana","Burundi","Comoros","Eswatini","The Gambia","Madagascar","Senegal","Sudan","Tanzania","World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"issafri-000059","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000059","title":"AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-21","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=01-introduction","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines the persistent gender gap in Africa despite a comprehensive framework of international and regional policies. It highlights the economic costs of gender inequality and establishes the basis for forecasting the impact of reducing these gaps on the continent's development by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000059#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Despite the adoption of numerous international and regional protocols—including the Maputo Protocol and the African Union's Agenda 2063—gender equality remains a distant prospect in Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is identified as the worst-performing region in the UNDP’s Gender Inequality Index.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000059#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current progress toward gender parity is slow and has been hindered by recent shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. A McKinsey report indicates Africa's overall gender parity is 0.58, suggesting it could take 140 years to achieve full equality at the current rate.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000059#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Gender inequality imposes significant economic costs on the continent. Between 2010 and 2014, annual economic losses due to gender gaps in sub-Saharan Africa reached US$95 billion, and discriminatory social institutions cost Africa approximately 7.5% of its GDP in 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000059#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global social norms regarding gender roles remain stagnant. The UNDP 2023 Gender Social Norms Index report indicates that about 50% of the global population believes men make better political leaders and over 40% believe men make better business leaders.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000059#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["gender equality","economic growth","human rights"],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa","World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","economic modeling","policy review"]}]}