{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"organization":["Institute for Security Studies"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":1466,"relation":"eq"},"page":5,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=5","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=6","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-000182","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000182","title":"DR CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CD&topic=06-interventions","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document details specific quantitative adjustments (multipliers) across several thematic scenarios—including governance, health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, trade (AfCFTA), and financial flows—designed to shift the DR Congo's development path from a 'Current Path' toward improved outcomes by 2043. These interventions aim to close gaps between the DR Congo and other regions, such as South America and South Asia, in areas like maternal mortality, democracy, and economic freedom.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000182#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The governance scenario aims to improve democracy, economic freedom, and government transparency by 2043. Specifically, it targets an 18.6% improvement in average democracy and a 14.5% improvement in economic freedom above the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000182#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Health interventions focus on reducing mortality and increasing contraceptive use. The scenario projects that maternal mortality in the DR Congo will drop to 19.3 per 100,000 live births by 2043, compared to 27.1 in the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000182#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The agriculture scenario includes multipliers to increase yields (1.6) and land equipped for irrigation (1.5), while reducing crop production loss rates (0.8) and losses during transport from producer to consumer (0.8).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000182#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Large Infrastructure/Leapfrogging scenario targets energy and digital connectivity, including a 1.2 multiplier for other renewables energy production and a 3x multiplier for ICT mobile broadband.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000182#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the AfCFTA scenario, the document projects an increase in multifactor productivity growth by approximately 20 percentage points relative to the Current Path forecast for the 2026-2035 period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000182#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The financial flows scenario proposes increasing foreign aid receipts (1.15 multiplier) and portfolio investment stocks (1.5 multiplier), noting a need for increased aid from China and OECD countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000182#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","agriculture","agricultural irrigation","infrastructure","trade policy","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["South America","South Asia","Africa","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario modeling","long-term forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-000183","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000183","title":"EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario—integrating 11 sectoral improvements—would significantly increase Equatorial Guinea's GDP per capita to US$49,924 by 2043, compared to US$30,522 under the Current Path. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and the AfCFTA are identified as the strongest drivers of economic growth, while the Free Trade scenario is most effective at reducing extreme poverty. However, this accelerated growth is projected to increase carbon emissions to 5.3 million tons by 2043, a 150% increase over the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000183#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to increase Equatorial Guinea's GDP per capita to US$49,924 by 2043, which is nearly 64% higher than the Current Path forecast of US$30,522.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000183#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the individual sectoral scenarios, manufacturing, infrastructure, and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are the most significant drivers of GDP per capita growth. The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario has the highest impact, raising GDP per capita to US$32,835 by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000183#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is expected to reduce the extreme poverty rate (using the US$1.90 threshold) to 60% by 2043, compared to 73.3% in the Current Path forecast. The Free Trade scenario is the most effective single intervention for poverty reduction, potentially lowering the extreme poverty rate to 70.9%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000183#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The service sector is projected to be the dominant part of the economy, with its contribution to GDP increasing by US$26.4 billion by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario compared to the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000183#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While Equatorial Guinea currently has low net carbon emissions due to its forest area, the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would lead to a significant increase in emissions, reaching 5.3 million tons by 2043, which is nearly 150% higher than the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000183#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","industrial manufacturing","infrastructure","economic growth"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000184","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000184","title":"Libya: Introduction","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LY&topic=01-introduction","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Libya is an upper-middle-income country in North Africa characterized by a vast desert interior and a densely populated Mediterranean coast. Its economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil, which provides over 90% of government revenues and export earnings, though output is volatile due to political instability. Since the 2011 collapse of the Gaddafi regime, the country has faced political fragmentation, recurring civil conflict, and a contested hybrid governance system with parallel institutions in the east and west. Geographically, Libya serves as a strategic transit point for migration toward Europe, a role that heavily impacts the country.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000184#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Libya's economy is critically dependent on the petroleum sector, with oil accounting for more than 90% of both export earnings and government revenues. While the country possesses the largest proven oil reserves in Africa—approximately 2.8% of the global total—economic output remains volatile because of political instability and interruptions in production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000184#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country is currently in a prolonged transitional phase following the 2011 uprising and the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. This period is defined by political fragmentation, a lack of unified national institutions, and a contested hybrid governance system featuring parallel institutions in the east and west of the country.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000184#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Libya's geography, specifically its 1,770-kilometre Mediterranean coastline and its borders with six countries, makes it a strategic transit hub for migration from the Sahel and North Africa toward Europe.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000184#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite its status as an upper-middle-income country with a 2023 GDP per capita of approximately US$9,988, there are significant economic disparities. Wealth is concentrated among urban public-sector employees, while rural populations rely on subsistence or informal activities; the informal economy is estimated to be up to 15.4% of GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000184#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["crude oil","climate migration","drought","agriculture"],"geography_discussed":["Tunisia","Algeria","Niger","Chad","Sudan","Egypt","Tripoli","Benghazi"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["geographic profile","economic overview","political assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000190","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000190","title":"Mali: Introduction","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ML&topic=01-introduction","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Mali is a low-income Sahelian nation facing severe environmental degradation and political volatility. The country is characterized by three natural zones—Sudanese, Sahelian, and Saharan—and is highly vulnerable to climate change, having experienced significant rainfall declines since the 1980s. Politically, Mali has a history of military coups and recurring rebellions, most recently leading to its withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2024 and the formation of the Confederation of Sahel States with Burkina Faso and Niger. The document also notes the presence of violent extremist groups and the shift in external relations from France toward Russia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000190#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Mali's geography is divided into three distinct natural zones: the cultivated Sudanese zone in the south, the semi-arid Sahelian zone in the center, and the arid Saharan zone in the north. The desert covers 30% of the country, and 59% of the territory is classified as having annual rainfall of less than 400 mm.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000190#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Sahel region is experiencing extreme climate impacts, including the most substantial and sustained decline in rainfall recorded globally during the 1980s. By 2030, the region is expected to face severe impacts such as rising temperatures, more frequent droughts, prolonged heatwaves, and variable rainfall.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000190#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mali has faced chronic political instability, including multiple military coups (1968, 1991, 2012, and 2020) and recurring Tuareg rebellions in the north (1963, 1986, 1990, 2006, and 2012).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000190#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Following a 2020 coup, Mali's military leadership shifted its external alliances, ending bilateral cooperation with France in 2022, requesting the withdrawal of MINUSMA in 2023, and moving closer to Russia. Additionally, Mali withdrew from ECOWAS in January 2024 to form the Confederation of Sahel States (CSS) with Burkina Faso and Niger.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000190#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","desertification","drought","environmental degradation","rain","heat wave"],"geography_discussed":["Sahel","Burkina Faso","Niger","Libya","Chad","France","Russia","Bamako"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["geographic analysis","political history","environmental assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000196","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000196","title":"LESOTHO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=combined-agenda-2063","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document evaluates the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario for Lesotho, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions to drive economic growth. By 2043, this scenario is projected to increase GDP per capita to US$7,375 and reduce poverty from 59.5% (2019) to 27.7%, though it is expected to increase carbon emissions to 1.4 million tons due to ambitious growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000196#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions, could increase Lesotho's GDP per capita to US$7,375 by 2043, which is US$2,135 higher than the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000196#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the sectoral interventions, improving intra-Africa trade is projected to have the largest positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, adding US$413 over the Current Path, followed by infrastructure (US$253) and stability (US$154). The least impact is expected from Financial Flows (US$58.9) and Health/WaSH (US$53.4).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000196#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementation of the Combined Agenda 2063 measures could reduce Lesotho's poverty rate from 59.5% in 2019 to 27.7% by 2043, representing a 17.5 percentage point decrease compared to the Current Path and lifting an additional 360,000 people out of extreme poverty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000196#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total GDP of Lesotho is forecast to reach US$12.3 billion by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, a 62% increase over the Current Path forecast of US$7.6 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000196#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is expected to increase carbon emissions from 0.7 million tons in 2019 to 1.4 million tons by 2043, which is 0.2 million tons higher than the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000196#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","infrastructure","agriculture","economic growth","poverty reduction","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000210","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000210","title":"Malawi: Conclusion","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MW&topic=05-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes Malawi's development futures, noting that while a 'Combined scenario' shows GDP per capita 35% higher than the 'Current Path' by 2043, this is insufficient to reach lower-middle-income status by 2030. It highlights persistent gaps in urbanization, industrialization, and healthcare, while emphasizing the critical impact of climate variability on rain-fed agriculture. Key recommendations include expanding Special Economic Zones, adopting climate-smart agriculture, and implementing nature-based solutions for flood prevention.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000210#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under the Combined scenario, Malawi's GDP per capita is projected to be 35% higher than the Current Path by 2043, but the country remains unlikely to reach lower-middle-income status by 2030 unless it maintains an annual GDP growth rate exceeding 10%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000210#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Urbanization and health outcomes are projected to fall short of the MW2063 initiative targets; only 25% of the population is expected to be urban by 2043 (against a 60% goal for 2063), and life expectancy is projected to reach 71 years by 2043 (below the 76-year target for 2042).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000210#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate variability, specifically recurring droughts, floods, and cyclones, continues to threaten food security and rural livelihoods due to the agricultural sector's heavy reliance on rain-fed farming.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000210#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To mitigate climate change and land degradation, the document recommends an ecosystem-based approach and nature-based solutions, such as catchment rehabilitation, to prevent flood damage by reducing run-off during heavy rainfall.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000210#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests improving domestic revenue mobilization through digitization, citing the use of e-filing in Kenya and e-invoicing in São Tomé and Príncipe as successful examples of expanding the tax base to the informal sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000210#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Climate-smart agriculture","adaptation finace","nature-based solutions","ecological restoration","agricultural irrigation","sustainable finance","early warning system","land degradation","urbanization","economic diversity"],"geography_discussed":["Rwanda","Kenya","São Tomé and Príncipe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"issafri-000221","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000221","title":"GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document projects that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase Guinea-Bissau's GDP per capita to US$7,867 by 2043, lift 900,000 additional people out of extreme poverty, and grow the economy to US$16.4 billion. However, this growth is associated with an increase in carbon emissions to 1.2 million tons by 2043. The Agriculture and Free Trade scenarios are identified as having the greatest potential for improving development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000221#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase Guinea-Bissau's GDP per capita to US$7,867 by 2043, which is US$3,900 higher than the Current Path forecast and US$1,365 higher than the average for low-income countries in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000221#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Agriculture and Free Trade scenarios are expected to have the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, while Health/WaSH and Governance scenarios are projected to have the least impact.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000221#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, an additional 900,000 people would be lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path, leaving 450,000 people (14.9% of the population) below the poverty line by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000221#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total GDP (MER) for Guinea-Bissau is estimated to reach US$16.4 billion by 2043 in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, representing a 123% increase over the Current Path estimate of US$7.3 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000221#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is linked to higher environmental impact, with carbon emissions projected to rise from 0.12 million tons in 2019 to 1.2 million tons by 2043, exceeding the Current Path estimate of 0.78 million tons.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000221#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","agriculture","industrial manufacturing","economic development","poverty reduction","infrastructure","governance"],"geography_discussed":["Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000227","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000227","title":"Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document evaluates the impact of different policy interventions on Mozambique's future. It finds that while individual sectoral scenarios like Large Infrastructure and Agriculture boost GDP per capita, a 'Combined scenario' integrating multiple sectors offers the most significant gains, potentially reducing extreme poverty from 65.1% to 40% by 2043. However, this accelerated growth is projected to increase carbon emissions to 47.6 million tons by 2043. The energy sector, dominated by gas, is expected to become the primary economic driver under the Combined scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Among individual sectoral scenarios, Large Infrastructure provides the highest boost to GDP per capita by 2043, increasing it by US$256 over the Current Path, followed by Agriculture (US$228) and Governance (US$131).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined scenario, which integrates all sectoral interventions, is projected to result in an average annual growth rate of approximately 8.5% between 2023 and 2043, making Mozambique the 16th-largest economy in Africa by 2043 with a GDP of US$93.5 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined scenario significantly reduces extreme poverty (measured at US$3 per day) to 40% by 2043, compared to 65.1% on the Current Path, representing 15.4 million fewer people in extreme poverty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic structural transformation under the Combined scenario would see the energy sector become the dominant driver of the economy, with its GDP share rising from 24.9% in 2024 to 33.9% by 2043, while the manufacturing sector's share increases from 7.6% in 2023 to 14.7% in 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined scenario is expected to reduce the size of the informal sector to 22.6% of GDP by 2043, which is 5.8 percentage points lower than the Current Path projection of 28.4%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Life expectancy in Mozambique is projected to reach 73 years by 2043 on the Current Path, and 75.1 years under the Combined scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Accelerated economic activity under the Combined scenario is projected to increase carbon emissions from fossil fuels to approximately 47.6 million tons by 2043, compared to 33.3 million tons on the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy production in Mozambique is heavily reliant on gas, which is projected to constitute 88.5% of total energy production by 2043 on the Current Path and 91% in the Combined scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000227#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","fossil fuel","natural gas","economic diversity","infrastructure","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Southern Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","scenario analysis","long-term forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-000234","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000234","title":"GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario for The Gambia projects a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043, nearly doubling the overall economy to US$18.5 billion. While the scenario predicts a drastic reduction in extreme poverty—leaving only 0.15% of the population below the poverty line—it also forecasts a rise in carbon emissions to 1.7 million tons, indicating a high cost of environmental degradation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000234#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase The Gambia's GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043, which is US$2,873 higher than the Current Path forecast and exceeds the projected average for low-income countries in Africa (US$3,790).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000234#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Trade liberalisation and agricultural production are identified as the most impactful policies for improving economic and human development, while health/WaSH and infrastructure are expected to have the least impact on GDP per capita by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000234#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Extreme poverty is expected to decline significantly under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, with only 6,000 Gambians (0.15% of the population) living below the poverty line by 2043, lifting an additional 85,000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000234#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The overall size of the economy is projected to almost double by 2043, reaching an estimated GDP (MER) of US$18.5 billion in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, compared to US$10 billion in the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000234#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario comes with a high environmental cost, with carbon emissions projected to rise from 220,000 tons in 2019 to 1.7 million tons by 2043, surpassing the Current Path estimate of 1.3 million tons.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000234#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","environmental degradation","agriculture","economic development","poverty reduction","infrastructure","industrial manufacturing"],"geography_discussed":["Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario forecasting","economic projection"]},{"id":"issafri-000244","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000244","title":"Mauritania: Conclusion and Recommendations","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MR&topic=05-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report concludes that while Mauritania's macroeconomic indicators are trending upwards, growth remains heavily dependent on the extractive sector and is hindered by poor infrastructure, weak governance, and climate change risks. It recommends a holistic development strategy focusing on climate resilience, public finance efficiency, human capital investment, and economic diversification to leverage the country's resource endowments and youthful population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000244#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Mauritania's current economic growth is primarily driven by the extractive sector and is characterized by persistent inequality and poverty. Structural transformation is obstructed by factors including the high cost of electricity, low quality of human capital and infrastructure, and risks associated with climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000244#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country possesses significant economic potential rooted in its natural resources (iron, gold, and gas), its capacity to become a regional hub for solar and hydrogen production, and its strategic geographic position for trade integration with neighbors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000244#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To strengthen climate resilience, the government should implement sustainable management of natural resources, ensure transparent management of oil and gas revenues for investment in social development, and invest in renewable energies like solar and hydrogen to improve energy stability and export potential.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000244#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic diversification should prioritize the agricultural sector through investments in irrigation, farming technology, and digitization to reduce reliance on imports and improve food security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000244#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Long-term growth requires improving the education system—specifically emphasizing the gender component of the 2020 reform—and expanding vocational training tailored to emerging job market needs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000244#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate risk","climate resilience","climate change adaptation","renewable energy","solar energy","natural resource management","economic diversity","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy recommendations","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000245","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000245","title":"Kenya Development Futures: Geographic Futures","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=KE&topic=conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies Kenya as a pivotal East African economic powerhouse with the potential for a 685% GDP increase by 2043 under a Combined scenario. It argues that implementing eight sectoral interventions could raise GDP per capita to US$10,950 and reduce extreme poverty from 64.6% in 2019 to 6.4% by 2043. To ensure sustainable and equitable growth, the document recommends strengthening anti-corruption efforts, expanding education and healthcare, investing in modern irrigation, and accelerating the transition to renewable energy through geothermal, solar, and wind projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000245#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Kenya's economy has the potential to grow by 685% in terms of GDP by 2043 under the Combined scenario, though progress toward Vision 2030 and Sustainable Development Goals is currently hindered by public debt, corruption, infrastructure deficits, human capital bottlenecks, and rapid population growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000245#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of eight sectoral interventions could elevate Kenya to an upper-middle-income status by 2043, increasing GDP per capita to US$10,950 and lowering extreme poverty from 64.6% in 2019 to 6.4%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000245#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve environmentally sustainable development, Kenya must fully transition to renewable energies, specifically by accelerating geothermal, solar, and wind projects and incentivizing private sector investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000245#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document recommends a series of policy actions across multiple sectors, including empowering the EACC for anti-corruption, integrating ICT into education, utilizing public-private partnerships for infrastructure (citing the Mombasa to Nairobi expressway), and expanding social protection and healthcare funding.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000245#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","geothermal energy","solar energy","wind power","sustainable development","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["East Africa","Mombasa","Nairobi","Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic forecasting","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"issafri-000250","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000250","title":"MOROCCO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MA&topic=05-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report projects that Morocco's GDP could reach US$384 billion by 2043 in a combined scenario of sectoral interventions, making it Africa's sixth-largest economy. Key growth drivers include transitions to high-value manufacturing, improvements in education and health, and the full implementation of the AfCFTA. The document recommends strategic investments in renewable energy, water management, and infrastructure to mitigate challenges like water scarcity and energy dependence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000250#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under a 'Combined scenario' integrating all sectoral interventions, Morocco's GDP is projected to grow to US$384 billion by 2043, with GDP per capita reaching US$13 996, representing a 33% increase over the Current Path forecast. This would make Morocco the sixth-largest economy in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000250#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Demographic and urban shifts are expected by 2043, with the population increasing to 43.9 million and the urbanisation rate rising to 72.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000250#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Specific sectoral improvements are forecast to drive economic gains: full implementation of the AfCFTA could increase exports by 70% above the Current Path, while increased investment in manufacturing and R&D could grow the economy by 6.8% by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000250#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To address water stress and scarcity, the document recommends reorganising the water sector, establishing a National Water Management Agency, and introducing cost-based water pricing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000250#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests that enhancing agricultural productivity through technology and irrigation could make Morocco a net exporter of agricultural products by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000250#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","water scarcity","water management","agricultural productivity","food security","urbanization","industrial manufacturing","infrastructure"],"geography_discussed":["European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic forecasting","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"issafri-000252","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000252","title":"Comoros: Introduction","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=KM&topic=01-intro","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Comoros is a lower-middle-income island state characterized by a tropical climate prone to intense cyclones and a history of political instability. Its economy relies heavily on subsistence farming, fishing, and EU budgetary support, while its development is hindered by frequent coups and the compounding effects of natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000252#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Comoros is highly vulnerable to tropical storms and cyclones due to its location in the warm Indian Ocean. In 2019, Cyclone Kenneth affected 345,000 people and destroyed 80% of the country's crop production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000252#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country's economic recovery from the 2019 cyclone was further impeded by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, which negatively impacted the export market for cash crops, the service sector, and tourism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000252#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Comoros' development has been severely obstructed by a turbulent political history involving more than 15 attempted, plotted, or successful coups d'état since gaining independence in 1975.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000252#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economy of Comoros is classified as lower-middle-income and is primarily dependent on fishing and subsistence farming, with limited manufacturing focused on processing agricultural products.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000252#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["tropical cyclone","climate change vulnerability","biodiversity","natural disaster"],"geography_discussed":["Madagascar","Grande Comore","Anjouan","Mohéli","Maoré","Moroni"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["geographic profile","political economy analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000261","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000261","title":"Mauritania: Introduction","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MR&topic=01-introduction","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Mauritania is a lower-middle-income country in Northwest Africa characterized by an arid climate, a mining-led economy, and a multi-ethnic society. While the country has transitioned toward a semi-presidential republic with peaceful leadership transitions, it continues to face challenges including corruption, restricted civil liberties, and entrenched slavery.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000261#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Mauritania's geography is dominated by the Sahara Desert, which covers 90% of its territory, and it possesses very limited arable land, totaling only 0.5%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000261#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country's arid to hyperarid climate is marked by significant rainfall variance, ranging from 100 mm in the north to 600 mm in the south, which increases water stress and desertification.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000261#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economy is heavily reliant on the mining sector, which represents approximately 30% of the GDP; notably, Mauritania provides 10% of global iron exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000261#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite a trend toward democracy and the first peaceful transition of power in 2019, the country struggles with corruption and the persistence of slavery, which affected about 90,000 people in 2018.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000261#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["desertification","mining"],"geography_discussed":["Western Sahara","Algeria","Mali","Senegal","Nouakchott"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["geographic profile","socio-economic overview"]},{"id":"issafri-000269","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000269","title":"ESWATINI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=combined-agenda-2063","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario for Eswatini, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions to drive economic growth and poverty reduction. By 2043, this scenario could raise GDP per capita to US$22,901 and reduce poverty from 60% in 2019 to 24.5%. While the scenario projects significant growth in the service and ICT sectors and an overall GDP increase to US$29.3 billion, it also forecasts an increase in carbon emissions to 1.4 million tons by 2043 due to the scale of economic expansion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000269#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions, could increase Eswatini's GDP per capita to US$22,901 by 2043, representing an increase of US$7,739 over the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000269#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the specific interventions, improving intra-Africa trade is projected to have the highest impact on GDP per capita by 2043, adding US$1,137 above the Current Path, followed by manufacturing (US$861) and leapfrogging (US$807).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000269#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementation of the Combined Agenda 2063 measures could reduce poverty in Eswatini from 60% in 2019 to 24.5% by 2043, lifting 400,000 additional people out of poverty compared to the Current Path, though 380,000 people would still live in extreme poverty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000269#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total GDP of Eswatini is forecast to reach US$29.3 billion by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, a 54.2% increase over the Current Path forecast of US$19 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000269#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic growth under this scenario is expected to increase carbon emissions from 0.4 million tons in 2019 to 1.4 million tons by 2043, which is 0.3 million tons higher than the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000269#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","agriculture","industrial manufacturing","poverty reduction","infrastructure","governance"],"geography_discussed":["Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000278","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000278","title":"Ethiopia: Introduction","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ET&topic=01-introduction","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document describes Ethiopia as a landlocked, low-income country in the Horn of Africa characterized by diverse topography and a complex ethnic federal system. It details the country's climatic patterns, including three annual rainfall seasons and projected temperature increases by 2030. The text also outlines Ethiopia's historical role in Pan-Africanism and its current political instability, marked by conflicts with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Army.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000278#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Ethiopia's mean annual temperatures are projected to rise by between 0.44°C and 1.47°C by the year 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000278#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country experiences three distinct rainfall seasons: Kiremt (mid-June to mid-September), which provides 50-80% of annual rain; Belg (February to May); and Bega (October to December). Increased rainfall during the Bega season is noted as a risk for crop harvest loss, leading to adaptation strategies such as early planting and the use of short-maturing crops during the Kiremt season.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000278#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia's political stability is challenged by ethnic-based disputes over land, resources, and power. While a peace agreement was reached with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in November 2022, the country faces ongoing instability due to an insurgency in Oromia and clashes with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) throughout 2024, including conflicts in South Oromia’s Guji Zone around October 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000278#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change adaptation","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Horn of Africa","Eritrea","Djibouti","Somalia","Sudan","South Sudan","Kenya","Uganda","Addis Ababa","Dire Dawa","Mekele","Tigray Region","Oromia Region","Guji Zone"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["geographic overview","political analysis","climatic assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000279","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000279","title":"Comoros: Conclusion","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=KM&topic=05-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes development scenarios for Comoros, contrasting a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' of sectoral interventions. It identifies systemic barriers including corruption, poor infrastructure, and climate change, while proposing a comprehensive policy framework focusing on governance, agricultural productivity, human capital, and the mobilization of international finance to reduce poverty and expand the formal economy by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A 'Combined scenario' of eight sectoral interventions could significantly boost Comoros' economy by 2043, increasing GDP to US$4,801 million—a 67.6% increase over the 'Current Path' projection of US$2,865 million. Under this scenario, GDP per capita is projected to reach US$6,674, which is US$2,072 higher than the Current Path's US$4,602.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined scenario is projected to reduce the informal sector's share of GDP to 24.6% by 2043, compared to 29.2% on the Current Path. This shift would result in approximately 298,600 fewer informal laborers, reducing the proportion of informal labor from 52.1% to 39% of the total workforce.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Extreme poverty in Comoros could be significantly reduced under the Combined scenario, with only 182,950 people (14.6% of the population) living in extreme poverty by 2043. This represents an improvement where nearly 185,409 more people are lifted out of poverty compared to the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Comoros faces several interconnected obstacles to prosperity, including insecurity, poor governance, a weak business climate, lack of infrastructure, shortage of human capital, and a heavy dependence on low-productivity agriculture without diversification. Climate change is also identified as a main obstacle.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To improve agricultural productivity and diversify the economy, the government is advised to invest in productivity-enhancing technologies, provide farmers with drought-resistant and high-yield seedlings, and support R&D focused on agricultural productivity, energy production, and resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends strengthening human capital by expanding education and vocational training, particularly in rural areas. Health system improvements should include investing in infrastructure, combating child malnutrition through nutrition programs, and providing free access to vaccines for children under 5 and treatments for tropical diseases like malaria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To attract more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which currently remains low compared to other lower-middle-income African countries, Comoros should create a transparent business environment and utilize the AfCFTA to increase market size for investors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","agricultural productivity","economic diversity","governance","infrastructure","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Rwanda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic forecasting","policy analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000283","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000283","title":"Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report forecasts that Mauritius will maintain steady economic growth and a high income per capita relative to its African peers, while facing challenges from an ageing population and a high dependence on energy imports. It projects a decline in extreme poverty and a gradual increase in carbon emissions as the economy expands, despite the country's high readiness to respond to climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000283#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Mauritius is experiencing a demographic shift toward an older population, with those aged over 65 expected to make up an additional 10 percentage points of the total population by 2043. This trend, combined with a low total fertility rate of 1.4 births per woman in 2019, is projected to result in a population decrease of 22,000 people by 2043 compared to 2019 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000283#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economy is projected to grow steadily, with GDP increasing from US$16.7 billion in 2019 to US$27.3 billion by 2043. GDP per capita is forecast to reach US$29,114 by 2043, maintaining Mauritius' position as one of the highest income per capita countries in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000283#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Mauritian economy is dominated by the services sector, which accounted for 69.7% of GDP in 2019. This shift toward services has led to a skilled labour shortage and increased wage income inequality, particularly affecting women due to low labour force participation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000283#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Extreme poverty, measured at the US$5.50 per person per day line for upper middle-income countries, was 7.7% in 2019 and is projected to be eliminated by 2036, eventually falling to 1.2% by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000283#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mauritius is almost entirely dependent on energy imports, which met 97% of demand in 2019. Local production is minimal and consists of hydro and other renewables, with the latter primarily derived from sugar cane bagasse.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000283#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Carbon emissions are projected to rise from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 1.8 million tons by 2043, driven by economic and manufacturing growth. Despite this, the country is ranked high for readiness and low for vulnerability in the ND-GAIN Country Index regarding climate change resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000283#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country faces significant climate risks from cyclones; over the last 40 years, 13 cyclones caused damages exceeding US$400 million. Forecasts indicate that while rainy days are decreasing, storms are more frequently reaching cyclone strength.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000283#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","renewable energy","hydropower","climate resilience","tropical cyclone","water-supply management","agriculture"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Madagascar","Port Louis"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","economic analysis","demographic analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000292","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000292","title":"MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report projects that a Combined scenario of 11 sectoral interventions would increase Mauritius's GDP per capita by US$5,380 and its overall economy by US$7.1 billion by 2043. While the scenario accelerates the elimination of extreme poverty and reduces domestic inequality, it is also projected to result in a slight increase in carbon emissions of 0.3 million tons. The economic growth is driven primarily by the services sector, though the country faces challenges including a skilled labour shortage, corruption in offshore financial services, and low female labour force participation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000292#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Combined scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to increase Mauritius's GDP per capita by US$5,380 by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast, representing an 18.5% increase. The 'Free Trade scenario' is identified as having the largest individual impact on GDP per capita, increasing average incomes by US$1,003 by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000292#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the Combined scenario, the Mauritian economy is projected to be 26% larger by 2043, an increase of US$7.1 billion. This growth is heavily concentrated in the services sector, which is projected to be US$6.7 billion larger than in the Current Path forecast, while the manufacturing and ICT sectors are expected to see more muted growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000292#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined scenario is projected to accelerate the elimination of extreme poverty (defined as US$5.50 per day) by one year and reduce the poverty rate by 0.5 percentage points by 2043. Additionally, domestic inequality is projected to decline, with the Gini index score decreasing from 0.36 in 2019 to 0.31 by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000292#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic growth under the Combined scenario is expected to lead to a slight increase in carbon emissions, with Mauritius projected to emit 0.3 million tons more carbon by 2043 than under the Current Path forecast. However, the country's emissions growth is slower than the rest of Africa, placing it 42nd on the continent by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000292#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite its status as a highly developed country with a diversified economy and positive health and education outcomes, Mauritius faces several systemic challenges: a shortage of skilled labour, allegations of corruption in the offshore financial services sector, low levels of FDI inflows, and low female labour force participation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000292#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","economic diversity","poverty reduction","industrial manufacturing"],"geography_discussed":["Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000299","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000299","title":"LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document forecasts that Liberia's GDP per capita will reach US$4,358 by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, driven primarily by agriculture, financial flows, and free trade. This scenario is projected to lift 2.2 million additional people out of extreme poverty and double the size of the economy to US$21.6 billion, though it will also increase carbon emissions to 2.1 million tons due to heightened economic activity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000299#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a synergistic effect, is projected to increase Liberia's GDP per capita to US$4,358 by 2043. This represents an increase of US$1,792 over the Current Path forecast and is US$568 higher than the projected average for low-income African countries in 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000299#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agriculture, Financial Flows, and Free Trade are identified as the sectors with the highest potential to improve economic development in Liberia. By 2043, the Agriculture scenario is expected to contribute US$346.6 to GDP per capita, followed by Financial Flow (US$233.3) and Free Trade (US$207). Conversely, Health/WaSH, Governance, and Education are expected to have the least impact.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000299#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty in Liberia. By 2043, only 4.9% of the population (368,000 people) would live below the poverty line, meaning 2.2 million more Liberians would be lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000299#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The overall size of the Liberian economy is projected to more than double by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, reaching an estimated GDP (MER) of US$21.6 billion, compared to US$10.8 billion in the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000299#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increased economic activity under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to lead to higher carbon emissions. Total emissions are expected to rise to 2.1 million tons by 2043, compared to 1.5 million tons in the Current Path forecast and 330,000 tons in 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000299#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agriculture","carbon dioxide emissions","economic development","poverty reduction","industrial manufacturing","infrastructure","governance"],"geography_discussed":["Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]}]}