{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"organization":["Institute for Security Studies"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":1466,"relation":"eq"},"page":25,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=25","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=26","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-002759","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002759","title":"Angola’s new president","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-04","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar38.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"President João Lourenço has made progress in opening political space and fighting corruption since taking office in 2017, but these gains are offset by a severe economic crisis and the politicisation of the military. While the anti-corruption drive has targeted the former Dos Santos elite, it is accused of lacking transparency and being used for political punishment. Angola faces a deepening recession, with oil production declining and public debt reaching 90% of GDP, leading to austerity measures that increase social tension and poverty. The report highlights risks including potential social convulsion in urban centres, low morale in the armed forces, and ongoing factionalism within the ruling MPLA party.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"President João Lourenço has opened up the political space and reduced repression of the media and civil society, though the government still owns most media outlets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The anti-corruption campaign is perceived as a tool for political targeting and lacks transparency, with the government failing to disclose the total value of recovered assets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Angolan Armed Forces (FAA) have undergone a process of politicisation, with the appointment of former political commissars to leadership roles weakening command structures and national cohesion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Angola is experiencing a severe economic crisis characterized by a four-year recession, declining oil production, and a public debt that stands at 90% of GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Austerity measures required by the International Monetary Fund, including the introduction of a 14% value-added tax (VAT) and the removal of subsidies, are increasing poverty and social tension.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Extreme climatic conditions, specifically consecutive droughts in the south, have put at least 2.3 million people at high risk of malnutrition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The ruling MPLA party remains factionalised, and the government has repeatedly postponed local elections due to fears of opposition gains in the provinces.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 was criticised for being heavy-handed and for lacking adequate healthcare infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002759#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["drought"],"geography_discussed":["Luanda","Portugal","Monaco","United Kingdom","United Arab Emirates","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Brazil","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["political analysis","economic assessment","security analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-002757","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002757","title":"Angolan futures 2050","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-03","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar35.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes Angola's vulnerability to oil market volatility and its low human development outcomes. It argues that while GDP is projected to grow, absolute poverty will increase due to rapid population growth unless the government prioritizes human development. The authors evaluate five sectoral scenarios, concluding that investing in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure provides the most significant economic and health benefits, while prioritizing education and reproductive healthcare for women is the fastest way to boost incomes and reduce maternal mortality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Angola's economy is highly vulnerable to global oil market volatility, with crude oil exports accounting for more than 95% of export earnings in 2017. Proven oil reserves are expected to be depleted by the early 2030s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Rapid population growth is projected to hinder income growth. The population is expected to reach 80 million by 2050, and the ratio of working-age people to dependants will not reach the 'demographic dividend' threshold of 1.7 to one until the second half of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Poverty is pervasive and expected to grow in absolute terms for at least a decade due to population growth, despite projected declines in the poverty rate. Approximately 22 million Angolans currently live in poverty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Educational attainment is low, particularly for women; nearly one-third of adults have no education, and 70% of those are women. The report identifies deprivation of education as the most powerful driver of poverty in the country.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Basic infrastructure is severely lacking, with only 60% of the population having access to safe water and 40% to improved sanitation. Improving these rates to 70% and 75% respectively by 2035 could reduce childhood malnourishment by one-third.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Angola faces significant health challenges, including a high maternal mortality ratio of roughly 452 deaths per 100,000 births and high rates of childhood malnutrition (38% of children under five in 2018).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The agricultural sector performs far below its potential, with only 0.2% of cropland actually irrigated. This leads to high food insecurity and a projected increase in crop import dependence to nearly 60% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Governance is characterized by poor regulatory quality and high corruption. Angola is classified as an 'anocracy,' meaning it possesses both democratic and autocratic characteristics, which the report suggests may lead to instability during a transition to democracy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The government spends over three times more of its GDP on the military than its lower-middle-income African peers, while underspending on core infrastructure and education.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the tested scenarios, the 'Water, Sanitation & Hygiene' (WASH) scenario provides the largest boost to GDP, while the 'Education & Family Planning' scenario has the most dramatic impact on GDP per capita and the reduction of extreme poverty by mid-century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002757#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","solar energy","wind power","hydropower","fossil fuel subsidy","climate change","deforestation","food security","water security","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["Luanda","Cabinda Province","Namibe Province","Benguela Province","Democratic Republic of the Congo","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["integrated assessment","scenario modelling","long-term forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-002758","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002758","title":"South Africa first! Getting to Thuma Mina","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-03","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar36.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that South Africa is on a pathway of economic divergence from its middle-income peers due to poor human capital, lack of investment, and an electricity crisis. It proposes the 'Thuma Mina' scenario, which suggests that targeted structural interventions in five key sectors could increase average incomes by 60% by 2044 compared to a 24% increase on the current path. Key recommendations include solving the electricity crisis, improving the quality of health and education, and revitalising manufacturing through increased foreign and domestic investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa is currently on a trajectory of economic divergence from both high-income countries and other upper-middle-income countries (OUMICs) through 2044. On the 'Current Path', GDP growth is expected to average 2.15% from 2020–2044, which is significantly lower than the 2.5% expected for OUMICs and 3.8% for High-Growth Middle-Income Countries (High-Growth MICs).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most significant structural drag on South Africa's long-term economic growth is a lack of technological sophistication resulting from poor human development, followed by a deficiency in investment capital.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human capital is identified as the largest constraint on growth, specifically driven by poor health and education outcomes. Life expectancy in South Africa is more than 12 years below that of its peer groups, and the country's communicable disease death rate is nearly five times higher than those of the OUMICs and High-Growth MICs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The education system suffers from severe quality issues and low throughput. Primary school survival rates (87%) are lower than peer averages, and secondary test scores are approximately 20 percentage points below those of peer groups, leaving few students prepared for STEM fields.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The electricity crisis is the primary immediate constraint on growth until at least 2022. The report argues that a transition toward a renewables-based energy system is the best pathway for the country and is foundational to modern industrialisation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Thuma Mina' scenario demonstrates that successful implementation of reforms across health, education, energy, industrialisation, and agriculture could increase average incomes by approximately 60% (US$8,260) per person by 2044, compared to a 24% increase on the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Modern industrialisation, including increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic investment, is viewed as the primary long-term economic game changer for South Africa to revive manufacturing and increase trade.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite the potential of the Thuma Mina scenario, extreme poverty is expected to remain a significant challenge. Even in this best-case scenario, 27 million people are projected to live below the US$5.50 per person per day poverty line by 2044.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa possesses a 'window of demographic opportunity' as the ratio of working-age people to dependents is forecast to be higher than OUMICs from 2024 and High-Growth MICs from 2028, though this requires health and education interventions to be realised.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural and land reform, specifically focusing on tenure security in former homelands and communal areas, is necessary to improve food security and resilience, although it has a smaller overall impact on GDP compared to other sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002758#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","renewable energy","coal power","natural gas","green job","climate change","water management","agricultural productivity","carbon dioxide emissions","economic growth","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["World","Gauteng","KwaZulu-Natal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic forecasting","scenario analysis","structural diagnosis"]},{"id":"issafri-001512","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001512","title":"Dialogue with violent extremist groups","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-137.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document assesses the feasibility of dialogue between governments and violent extremist groups in the Lake Chad Basin based on a survey of 31 civil society organization representatives. While many respondents support exploring dialogue due to the failure of purely militarized responses, significant barriers exist, including deep mistrust, unclear extremist motivations, and ideological conflicts regarding the implementation of Sharia law. The brief recommends that governments conduct further research into actor motivations and initiate nationwide discussions to secure community buy-in.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001512#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Civil society perspectives on the effectiveness of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) are deeply divided, with an almost equal split between those who believe the Force can secure peace and those who doubt its ability to do so.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001512#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is significant disagreement regarding the severity of the military response; just over half of the participants believe the MNJTF's approach is too severe, with one respondent suggesting this has actually aided in recruiting more fighters for Boko Haram.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001512#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A majority of civil society representatives believe that alternative approaches like dialogue are now required because the securitised approach has failed to eradicate Boko Haram and ISWAP or reduce their physical capabilities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001512#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite support for the idea of dialogue, many respondents are skeptical of its likely success due to a profound lack of trust in the integrity of groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP, fearing they would not adhere to any final agreement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001512#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ideological and religious differences present a critical barrier to dialogue, specifically the conflict between the extremists' demand for an Islamic state and the commitment of Lake Chad Basin countries to secular lifestyles and human rights.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001512#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Some community members perceive government engagement in dialogue as a sign of weakness or capitulation, viewing it as a victory for terrorist groups rather than a strategic resolution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001512#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Cameroon","Chad","Niger","Abuja"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief","community perspective analysis","survey"]},{"id":"issafri-001514","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001514","title":"Africa First!","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"de","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-146-german2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that while Africa has seen improvements in health indicators, it is falling further behind the rest of the world in average income and economic productivity. It identifies a 'unproductive structure' of economies dominated by low-end services and a slow demographic transition as primary barriers. To ignite a 'growth revolution' by 2040, the author advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach prioritizing basic infrastructure, a reduction in birth rates to achieve a demographic dividend, and the revitalization of the manufacturing sector to support agriculture and high-value services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001514#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa is experiencing a widening economic gap with the rest of the world; while the continent's economy is projected to grow by 130% between 2020 and 2040, its average income is expected to rise by only 30%, compared to a 150% increase globally.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001514#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The continent's economic underperformance is attributed to an unproductive structure where low-end services dominate and the manufacturing sector is shrinking, which hinders the development of productive economic frameworks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001514#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A slow demographic transition is a critical but neglected factor; Africa will not reach a 'demographic dividend'—where the working-age population outweighs dependents—until 2050, unless birth rates fall below 2.8 children per woman.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001514#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agriculture suffers from low yields and high post-production waste, leaving most African countries as net food importers with an annual agricultural trade deficit of nearly 100 billion US$, which is projected to quadruple by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001514#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author proposes a 'bottom-up' development strategy, arguing that investments in basic sanitation, electricity, water, roads, and primary education must precede large-scale industrial projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001514#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Technological 'leapfrogging', particularly through renewable energy, decentralized grids, and satellite internet (mentioning SpaceX and OneWeb), is seen as a way to accelerate digitalization and formalize the informal economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001514#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Poor governance and a lack of leadership renewal are cited as major obstacles; the continent is described as having the world's youngest population but the 'oldest leadership'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001514#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","climate change","infrastructure","agriculture","industrial manufacturing","urbanization","governance","poverty reduction","economic diversity"],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Seychelles","People's Republic of China","India","Netherlands","United States","France","Australia","Brazil","Cape Town","Nairobi"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic projection","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"issafri-001516","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001516","title":"South African peacebuilding needs new purpose","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-154-2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that South Africa's influence in global peacebuilding has waned since the late 2000s due to a lack of strategic coordination, political will, and effective financial mechanisms. It highlights the failure of the African Renaissance and International Cooperation Fund (ARF) to prioritise conflict resolution and the long-delayed establishment of the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA). The author recommends that the government professionalise its foreign service, expedite the Partnership for Development Bill, and align peacebuilding efforts with trade and investment priorities to reclaim its international standing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001516#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa's peacebuilding efforts are currently uncoordinated and under-prioritised, lacking a strategic plan that connects bilateral and multilateral commitments with long-term foreign-policy goals for trade, development, and investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001516#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African Renaissance and International Cooperation Fund (ARF), a primary financial mechanism for conflict resolution, has been ineffective; only 4% of its disbursements over the last five years were directed toward conflict resolution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001516#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa has experienced a decline in global visibility and political will regarding peacebuilding, evidenced by its absence from international policy processes and a failure to make voluntary contributions to the UN Peacebuilding Fund since 2006.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001516#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is potential for renewal through the recent passage of the Foreign Service Act and the prioritisation of the draft Partnership for Development Bill, which is required to establish the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA) and repeal the ARF Act.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001516#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa's role as AU Chair has not been leveraged to advance peace and security priorities, contrasting with the actions of previous chairs from Egypt and Rwanda.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001516#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["multilateralism"],"geography_discussed":["Burundi","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Sudan","South Sudan","Egypt","Rwanda","Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-001534","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001534","title":"Evidence-led violence prevention","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb139-2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines a framework for evidence-led violence prevention, emphasizing that successful multisectoral collaboration requires skilled facilitation, deep contextual understanding, and the cultivation of trust. It argues against 'plug-and-play' programs, suggesting instead that interventions must be tailored to specific community needs—such as addressing gang violence in urban areas or gender inequalities in rural settings. The brief highlights that while diverse stakeholder groups (including government, researchers, and community members) may face more friction, they produce more creative and informed outcomes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001534#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The composition of the planning group significantly influences the results; while greater diversity among participants makes the process more difficult and increases the need for facilitation, it leads to more creative and informed outcomes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001534#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Skilled facilitation is critical to ensure all voices are heard equally and that tensions are addressed before they escalate into conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001534#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Violence prevention measures must be adapted to the specific histories, resources, and beliefs of a community, as standardized 'plug-and-play' programs are ineffective even if they worked elsewhere.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001534#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Establishing trusting partnerships is a time-consuming but essential prerequisite for addressing complex social problems, as trust cannot be assumed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001534#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Innovation in community-level change requires an environment where failure is accepted as a necessary part of learning, contrasting with the tendency of donors and government institutions to discourage experimentation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001534#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["public policy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief","practice guidelines"]},{"id":"issafri-001535","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001535","title":"Zimbabwe’s currency ‘curse’ and the economic malaise","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb140.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyses Zimbabwe's history of currency instability, from the failure of the US dollar peg and subsequent hyperinflation to the period of full dollarisation (2009\u001319) and the 2019 reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar. It argues that currency choice is secondary to macroeconomic fundamentals, noting that budget deficits and money creation have consistently undermined stability. The author suggests that if the new Zimbabwean dollar cannot be stabilised, the country should consider adopting the South African rand and joining the Common Monetary Area (CMA) to improve trade integration and competitiveness.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001535#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Zimbabwe underwent a period of full dollarisation between 2009 and 2019, which followed the collapse of the Zimbabwean dollar and a period of hyperinflation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001535#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar in June 2019 was intended to address the economic crisis and manage foreign currency supply and demand, but the currency has since depreciated rapidly on both official and parallel markets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001535#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is no recent historical precedent for a country that abandoned its currency due to instability, became dollarised, and then successfully re-introduced a domestic currency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001535#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Zimbabwe's balance of payments is constrained by a substantial current account deficit, a lack of foreign direct investment due to high risk, and no access to international capital markets because of debt arrears.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001535#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author argues that the South African rand would be a more appropriate foreign currency for Zimbabwe than the US dollar because it aligns with Zimbabwe's trade patterns and would avoid the competitiveness issues associated with the US dollar.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001535#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adopting the South African rand would require the agreement of the South African government and likely the other members of the Common Monetary Area (Lesotho, Namibia, and eSwatini), as well as a loan to recapitalise the monetary base.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001535#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document concludes that the choice of currency regime is irrelevant if economic fundamentals are flawed; large budget deficits financed by printing money inevitably lead to inflation and depreciation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001535#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","Israel","Poland","Angola","Bolivia","Peru","Ecuador"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-001537","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001537","title":"COVID-19 and political stability in Ethiopia","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb143-2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that while COVID-19 initially calmed political rivalries by redirecting focus toward the health crisis, it may in the medium term exacerbate instability. The author highlights risks of unorganised riots driven by economic desperation and a potential regime-opposition standoff over how the country should be governed after the state of emergency ends and the ruling party's term expires. It suggests that stability depends on the capacity of political actors to negotiate a constitutionally mandated governance framework and the government's willingness to involve non-state actors in pandemic management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001537#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced political tensions as opposing groups shifted their focus from contentious political issues to the health crisis.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001537#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the short term, the pandemic and the government's containment measures may trigger unorganised riots and protests, driven by increased poverty, economic inequality, and food insecurity, particularly among the urban poor and homeless.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001537#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The postponement of national elections originally scheduled for late August 2020, combined with the end of the ruling party's term, creates a potential legitimacy crisis and a risk of a standoff between the government and opposition forces.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001537#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The state of emergency (SoE) provides the ruling party an opportunity to strengthen its institutional power, centralise security apparatuses, and re-establish command and control, though this may not be accompanied by ideological coherence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001537#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Opposition parties have seen their mobilisation and internal reorganisation efforts halted by the pandemic, potentially leaving them unable to lead orderly challenges to state rule, which may instead result in chaotic movements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001537#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is expected to emerge as a more powerful opposition force because it is implementing its own state of emergency at the regional level in Tigray, enhancing its capacity to mobilise and control.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001537#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["governance"],"geography_discussed":["Tigray Region","Addis Ababa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief"]},{"id":"issafri-001538","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001538","title":"Silencing the guns can reduce forced displacement","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb152.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the link between armed conflict and forced displacement in Africa, noting that the number of forcibly displaced people more than doubled from 11 million in 2013 to 25.7 million in 2019. It assesses the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns' initiative, arguing that while infrastructure like the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Panel of the Wise exists, implementation is hindered by a lack of conceptual coherence and poor governance. The brief highlights that governance deficiencies, corruption, and the illicit trade of firearms—with over 40 million civilian-held firearms in Africa—drive conflict and displacement. It recommends that the AU move from early warning to early action, improve interdepartmental coordination, and address the structural root causes of conflict to facilitate durable solutions like repatriation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001538#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Armed conflict is the primary driver of forced displacement in Africa, with the total number of forcibly displaced persons increasing from 11 million in 2013 to 25.7 million by the end of 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001538#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African Union has not achieved its goal of 'silencing the guns' by 2020, as new conflicts emerged between 2013 and 2019 in countries including Burkina Faso, Burundi, Rwanda, The Gambia, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Mozambique.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001538#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Poor governance, including state mismanagement, corruption, and human rights violations, is a central cause of conflict and subsequent forced displacement across the continent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001538#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant correlation between high levels of corruption and forced displacement; for example, Somalia and South Sudan are among the most corrupt countries globally and are also major refugee-producing nations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001538#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proliferation of uncontrolled firearms exacerbates violence and displacement, with over 40 million firearms held by civilians in Africa, the highest concentrations being in Western, Northern, and Eastern Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001538#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AU possesses the necessary infrastructure for conflict prevention—such as the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS), the Panel of the Wise, and Regional Economic Communities (RECs)—but these must be better coordinated and transitioned from early warning to early action.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001538#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["early warning system","human rights"],"geography_discussed":["Burkina Faso","Burundi","Rwanda","The Gambia","Cameroon","Ethiopia","Mozambique","South Sudan","Somalia","Nigeria","Niger Delta"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","trend analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-001623","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001623","title":"Community mobilisation to support positive parenting","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief148.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights"],"summary":{"text":"The document details a project in Touwsranten, South Africa, that integrated household-level parenting programmes with community-led social activation. This synergistic approach led to a decrease in corporal punishment, reduced child behavioural problems, and improved parent mental health. The project utilised action research and a steering committee to develop contextually relevant activities, such as a parenting manifesto and community events, to foster a collective commitment to non-violent parenting.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001623#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The combination of household-level parenting programmes and a social activation process resulted in warmer parenting behaviours, a reduction in corporal punishment, and improved outcomes for children in the Touwsranten community.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001623#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Child behavioural problems decreased significantly between the baseline and the third wave of the survey, with a 33% reduction for younger children and a 21% reduction for older children.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001623#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The intervention led to a decline in reported parenting stress and symptoms of parent mental health, as well as a slight decrease in intimate partner violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001623#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Participatory action research allowed community members to establish shared values and aspirations, which were then translated into a logo, songs, a manifesto, and a slogan to support positive parenting.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001623#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Community-led activities, such as park repairs, clean-ups, and family events, strengthened social bonds and created opportunities for parents and children to bond in ways that had not previously existed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001623#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project's momentum was sustained through a partnership between community members and the Seven Passes Initiative (SPI), a local NGO providing administrative assistance and dialogue-reflection-action processes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001623#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"issafri-002616","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002616","title":"Preventing violent extremism","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-138.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines how communications strategies can build resilience against violent extremism in West and Central Africa, specifically focusing on the Lake Chad Basin and Côte d’Ivoire. It identifies poverty, unemployment, and illiteracy as primary drivers of extremism and highlights the struggle of local civil society organisations (CSOs) to reach rural, low-tech populations. The brief advocates for the use of positive narratives over counter-narratives due to the lack of religious expertise among CSOs and the risk of retaliation from extremist groups. It emphasizes the effectiveness of radio and face-to-face meetings, while noting significant barriers such as language gaps, cultural norms restricting women's participation, and a lack of government-led strategic guidelines.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002616#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Local actors identify poverty and unemployment as the primary drivers of violent extremism in Côte d’Ivoire and the Lake Chad Basin.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002616#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Communications campaigns primarily target women and young people, who are viewed as the most vulnerable to exploitation by extremist groups, though cultural norms often hinder women's ability to participate in community discussions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002616#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Radio and face-to-face meetings are the most prevalent communication methods in local settings, partly because over 90% of adults in Africa own a short-wave radio.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002616#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Positive narratives are recommended as a more sustainable and safer alternative to counter-narratives, as the latter require specialized religious expertise that most CSOs lack and can provoke violent retaliation from extremist groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002616#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Local CSOs face significant operational hurdles, including a lack of capacity to create content, language barriers, and the difficulty of reaching rural communities in 'red zones' where roads are inaccessible or government restrictions apply.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002616#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a perceived need for governments to integrate formal communications strategies into their national P/CVE action plans to provide guidance and uniformity for local practitioners.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002616#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Measuring the success of communications campaigns is difficult due to a lack of established outcome indicators, with many practitioners relying on simple counts of attendees or callers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002616#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Cameroon","Chad","Niger","Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief","survey analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-002617","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002617","title":"Activating Africa’s national youth policies for successful PCRD","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-141.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that the African Union's PCRD framework is essential for youth-focused peacebuilding, but its success depends on prioritising socio-economic and political opportunities for young people. It highlights that the absence of inclusive youth policies increases the risk of returning to violence. While some states like Côte d'Ivoire have established dedicated youth ministries to foster policy development, others like Libya and the Central African Republic struggle with implementation due to fragile governance and recurring conflict. The brief recommends that the AU and member states prioritise early youth policy development, create dedicated youth ministries, and ensure all policies are accompanied by monitorable action plans.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The African Union's (AU) PCRD framework serves as a fundamental anchor for youth-focused peacebuilding policies across Africa, and its success depends on the prioritisation of political and socio-economic opportunities for the youth population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a heightened risk that violence will resume in post-conflict countries if inclusive, youth-centric policies and frameworks are not established during the transition to peace.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"National youth policies in post-conflict states often fail due to broad goals, generalised implementation methods, and a lack of continuity caused by frequent leadership changes and government restructuring.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The establishment of a dedicated youth ministry or department is a key factor in creating an environment conducive to the development of national youth policies, as seen in the case of Côte d’Ivoire.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Central African Republic, a 2009 National Policy for the Advancement of Central African Youth was never implemented due to the 2012 resurgence of conflict, leaving youth marginalised in governance and peace processes despite comprising 75% of the population under 35.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Libya lacks a functioning youth strategy or policy, and attempts to create a national action plan with the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) failed due to government technical deficits, a harsh socio-economic climate, and frequent violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Liberia has stabilised and re-established its state, but implementation of youth policies remains a challenge, leaving Liberian youth as a potential source of conflict resurgence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Effective youth policies in PCRD states must include concrete action plans that can be monitored and evaluated, as many current policies are formalistic and lack systemic approaches to existing problems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002617#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["governance"],"geography_discussed":["Burundi","Central African Republic","Rwanda","Ethiopia","Uganda","Sierra Leone","Liberia","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Somalia","South Sudan","Libya","Ivory Coast"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","case study"]},{"id":"issafri-002633","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002633","title":"How civil society can contribute to effective prosecutions","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb145.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that the South African National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) was severely damaged by political interference and poor leadership during the state capture years, leading to a loss of public trust and diminished performance. It proposes the creation of a civil society network to support prosecutorial reform, advocate for transparent leadership appointments, and educate the public on the NPA's mandate. Drawing on a similar initiative in Mexico, the brief suggests that coordinated civil society action can help institutionalise merit-based appointments and establish effective complaints mechanisms to ensure the NPA operates without fear, favour, or prejudice.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002633#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) suffered significant degradation in performance, independence, and accountability due to political interference and poor leadership over the last decade, which eroded public trust in the broader criminal justice system.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002633#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"During the presidency of Jacob Zuma, the criminal justice system was manipulated for personal and political gain, facilitating state capture through the closure of the Scorpions and interference in agencies like the South African Police Service (SAPS) and the NPA.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002633#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The NPA faced a severe skills and resource crisis between 2015 and March 2019, with 600 resignations and retirements resulting in 20% of its posts remaining unfilled.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002633#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Civil society's interaction with the NPA was historically adversarial and focused on litigation to protect its independence, specifically regarding the appointment and dismissal of National Directors of Public Prosecutions (NDPPs).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002633#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Data indicates a decline in both public trust and actual performance; public approval of courts dropped from 63.9% in 2013/14 to 41.1% in 2017/18, and fewer convictions were secured in 2017/2018 than in 2002/2003 despite a 153% increase in serious crime arrests.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002633#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document recommends the establishment of a civil society network, inspired by Mexico's 'Fiscalía Que Sirva' initiative, to provide technical expertise, monitor performance, and advocate for legislative amendments to ensure transparent, merit-based appointments of senior NPA officials.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002633#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["governance"],"geography_discussed":["Mexico"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief"]},{"id":"issafri-002634","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002634","title":"Securing and stabilising borders in North and West Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb155_2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the shortcomings of current border security reforms in North and West Africa, noting that they often ignore the unique needs of borderland communities and the complexity of overlapping security mandates. It recommends a shift toward community consultation, the reduction of military roles in favour of law enforcement, and increased cross-border cooperation between neighbouring states.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002634#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Regional governments in North and West Africa increasingly view frontiers as sources of threat and vulnerability, leading to a 'thickening' of borders through increased surveillance and security sector stabilisation (SSS) and security sector reform (SSR) programmes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002634#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 2014 and 2020, at least 489 border projects were funded across North Africa (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia) and West Africa (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d‘Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002634#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current SSS and SSR initiatives are typically designed at the national level and fail to account for the specificities of borderlands, where transnational mobility and informal commerce are often essential to local stability and livelihoods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002634#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Border security is characterised by 'security pluralism,' where multiple law enforcement and military agencies with overlapping mandates operate in the same space, sometimes leading to competition for control or illicit rents.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002634#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a concerning trend of using military units for frontline border tasks, such as arresting low-level migrants and smugglers, which can blur civil-military distinctions and increase tensions with local populations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002634#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Cross-border cooperation varies significantly by region; while Mali and Senegal engage in routine joint patrolling, political tensions between Algeria and Morocco preclude most engagement beyond counter-terrorism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002634#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Donor-funded projects in North and West Africa lack a multilateral focus, with only 32% of projects covering two or more countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002634#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate migration"],"geography_discussed":["Tunisia","Libya","Mali","Algeria","Morocco","Senegal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","programmatic evaluation"]},{"id":"issafri-002659","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002659","title":"Migration: a critical climate change resilience strategy","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-151.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the relationship between climate change and migration in Africa, challenging the narrative of mass international 'climate refugee' flows. It posits that migration is an active resilience strategy used by households to diversify income and spread risk, though the most vulnerable are often trapped by a lack of resources. The brief highlights the prevalence of internal migration, the risks of unplanned urbanisation, and the need for African policymakers to develop governance frameworks tailored to local realities rather than relying on international models.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002659#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change is a significant driver of migration in Africa, but it predominantly triggers internal movement within a country rather than international migration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002659#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Migration serves as a critical resilience and adaptation strategy for vulnerable communities, allowing families to diversify income and spread risk through remittances and temporary movement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002659#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most impoverished individuals often lack the financial and social resources required to migrate, creating a 'poverty trap' where climate change increases vulnerability while simultaneously reducing the ability to adapt through movement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002659#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Urbanisation is a major outcome of climate change, with sub-Saharan Africa projected to have 86 million internal climate migrants by 2050, often leading to the growth of vulnerable informal settlements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002659#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Isolating climate change as the sole driver of migration is difficult because it typically interacts with complex economic, social, and political factors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002659#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"At the end of 2019, 2 million people in sub-Saharan Africa were displaced due to climate-linked disasters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002659#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["urbanization","climate resilience","food security","sea level rise","drought","coastal erosion"],"geography_discussed":["Mozambique","Djibouti","Ethiopia","Kenya","Uganda","Tanzania","Somalia","South Sudan","Zimbabwe","Comoros","Madagascar","Kampala","Addis Ababa","Dar es Salaam"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","conceptual framework"]},{"id":"issafri-002153","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002153","title":"Securitisation of migration in Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-12","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar20.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that framing migration as a security threat—driven largely by EU policies to stem migration to Europe—leads to restrictive border controls and the criminalisation of smuggling. Using Agadez, Niger, as a case study, the author demonstrates that these securitised approaches do not stop irregular migration but instead increase local insecurity, empower high-level smugglers, expose migrants to greater risks, and erode trust between citizens and governments. The document recommends shifting the narrative toward evidence-based migration management and expanding legal pathways for movement within Africa and between Africa and the EU.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002153#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Securitisation of migration occurs when migration is framed as a security threat, leading to restrictive policies such as enhanced border controls, tighter visa rules, surveillance, detention, and deportation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002153#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"European Union policies implemented in Africa, particularly after the 2015–16 migration 'crisis', have increased the securitisation of intra-African migration. Key mechanisms include the Joint Valletta Action Plan, the EU Emergency Trust Fund (EUTF), the European Neighbourhood Policy, and the activities of Frontex.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002153#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African states also contribute to securitisation; upper-middle-income countries like Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, and Botswana often implement stricter visa policies due to fears of job competition and influxes from low-income countries. Additionally, refugees in countries like Tanzania and Kenya are increasingly viewed as national security threats.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002153#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Agadez, Niger, the securitisation of migration has led to five unintended consequences: increased insecurity for residents, the adaptation of the human smuggling industry, greater risks for migrants, potential regional destabilisation, and eroded citizen-government relations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002153#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Securitised interventions in Agadez have dismantled the local 'migration industry' without providing alternative income, which may drive residents toward radicalisation and recruitment by extremist groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002153#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Restrictive policies have not stopped irregular migration but have forced it into more dangerous and expensive routes. While front-line Nigerien smugglers were affected, major actors with high-level government connections remained largely untouched, and Sudanese smugglers have filled the vacuum by creating routes through Chad and Darfur.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002153#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The prevailing narrative that African migration to Europe is an 'invasion' is contradicted by data showing that 53.2% of African migration is intra-continental and sub-Saharan Africans make up only 12.9% of Europe's migrant population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002153#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["European Union","Algeria","Morocco","Egypt","South Africa","Botswana","Tanzania","Kenya","Sahel","Libya","Chad","Sudan","Mali"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","case study"]},{"id":"issafri-002154","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002154","title":"Harnessing public engagement for police accountability in Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-12","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar21-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the role of 'social control' or public accountability in democratic policing, contrasting 'back-end' accountability (addressing misconduct after it occurs) with 'front-end' accountability (public involvement in policy and practice). It identifies challenges to public engagement in fragile democracies, such as social inequalities and the use of police as tools for ruling elites. The author proposes a four-step approach for African contexts: opening communication lines, building trust through dialogue, developing multi-tiered partnerships, and collaborating on community-level problem solving. Case studies from Jamaica, the US, Brazil, and Honduras illustrate various collaborative and confrontational mechanisms of public oversight.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002154#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Police accountability is categorized into three primary pathways: internal control, state control, and social control, with the latter focusing on public accountability or 'accountability from below'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002154#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public engagement in police accountability often focuses on 'back-end' activities, such as exposing abuse and advocating for victims, rather than 'front-end' engagement in developing the rules and policies that govern police behavior.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002154#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Procedural justice—characterized by voice, transparency, fairness, and impartiality—is essential for building police legitimacy and fostering a reciprocal relationship between the police and the community.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002154#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In fragile or developing democracies, public engagement is often resisted by powerful political actors and senior officials who may use the police as instruments of oppression or to protect ruling elites.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002154#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Effective police reform in Africa requires local ownership and must be driven by local realities and jointly developed solutions rather than imported external models.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002154#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests a four-step framework for African contexts: decreasing the distance between police and community via communication, building trust through dialogue, creating multi-level partnerships, and collaborating on community-level problem solving.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002154#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Case studies demonstrate that both collaborative approaches (like the Peace and Justice Project in Honduras) and confrontational advocacy (like the Alliance for Peace and Justice in Honduras) can achieve significant results in reducing crime and removing corrupt officers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002154#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Kenya","Tanzania","Uganda","Jamaica","United States","Brazil"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","literature review","case study analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-002232","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002232","title":"Using social media to promote police accountability in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-12","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-31.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that while social media engagement alone achieves limited results in promoting police accountability in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, it serves as a valuable tool for documenting misconduct and mobilising the public. Analysis shows a general net negative sentiment towards police in all three countries, though the nature of engagement varies: Kenyans and Ugandans frequently tag official police handles, whereas Tanzanians rely more on activist profiles due to a more repressive environment. The study highlights that police responsiveness on social media directly correlates with improved public sentiment, though overall response rates remain very low.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Social media engagement in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda has limited standalone success in promoting police accountability but remains a valuable tool for the effort.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proportion of the African population discussing police behaviour on social media is currently small but is expected to grow as mobile connectivity improves and the public recognizes its utility for demanding government accountability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Kenya, strategic social media campaigns by civil society, such as the #FreeHuruma12 movement, have successfully mobilised the public and achieved tangible results, including the release of wrongfully arrested activists.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public sentiment towards the police was net negative across all three studied countries during the research period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Police responsiveness to social media posts is generally very low, but when they do engage, there is a direct positive impact on public perception.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Tanzania, the space for online accountability is severely restricted by government regulations and a lack of police responsiveness, leading the public to direct conversations toward activist profiles rather than official police handles.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Uganda, the use of personal accounts by high-ranking officers, such as Assistant Inspector General of Police Asan Kasingye, has been effective in driving positive public engagement and mitigating risk through direct communication.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Government measures, including Uganda's social media tax and Tanzania's online content regulations, serve to contain the impact of social media as a mechanism for public accountability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002232#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Nairobi","Mombasa","Nakuru","Kisumu","Eldoret","Dar es Salaam","Arusha","Dodoma","Mwanza","Kampala","Wakiso Town","Mbarara City","Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["sentiment analysis","case study","policy assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-002326","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002326","title":"Drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-12","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mono-202-2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia, focusing on the cyclical relationship between political institutions and nationalist mobilizations. It argues that the 'centralised ethno federation' established by the EPRDF created fault lines that, when combined with recent political liberalization and institutional fragility, led to widespread violence. The author examines specific conflicts in the north, west, and south, applying the concepts of the 'security dilemma' and 'invidious comparison' to explain micro-level violence. The document concludes that sustainable stability requires transforming the ruling party, conducting inclusive national dialogue, and reclaiming state autonomy from mob influence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The surge in violent conflicts in Ethiopia since 2018 is primarily driven by the rise of competing, militant ethnic nationalisms occurring alongside the perceived fragility of state and party institutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EPRDF's 'centralised ethno federation' created a contradictory system where ethnic units had local administration, but hierarchical rule and ideology were issued from the top, undermining the principle of self-rule.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethnic federalism both empowered historically marginalised groups through language rights and disempowered others by creating a sense of Tigrayan domination and a divisive 'native' versus 'newcomer' dynamic.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Amhara nationalism emerged as a mass movement recently, partly as a reaction to ethnic federalism, which was perceived as an instrument to downgrade the Amhara and their history.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 'security dilemma' exists between ethnic groups, where one group's attempt to build military power for security is perceived as a threat by others, leading to a cycle of counter-militarisation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Violence is further fueled by 'invidious comparison,' where individuals tie their personal worth to their ethnic group and seek to establish that group's worth in contrast to others.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The ruling EPRDF coalition has suffered internal fractures, with constituent parties like the ADP and ODP lacking unity and sometimes promoting extreme agendas, which hinders the state's ability to manage conflicts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State fragility is evidenced by the breakdown of command structures in some localities, where security and administrative functions have been overtaken by protest networks or mob influence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic downturn and high unemployment, particularly among youth, have acted as sources of grievance and reduced the opportunity cost for individuals to engage in violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The state's attempt to shift from repressive measures to 'softer' peacebuilding approaches has created a perception of weakness and a reluctance among security forces to act during violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002326#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["governance","human rights"],"geography_discussed":["Amhara Region","Oromia Region","Benishangul-Gumuz Region","Somali Region","Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region","Tigray Region","Addis Ababa","Eritrea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["political analysis","conflict analysis","institutional analysis"]}]}