{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"organization":["Institute for Security Studies"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":1466,"relation":"eq"},"page":21,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=21","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=22","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-002145","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002145","title":"From apathy to action: Africa’s role in deep seabed mining","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-06","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-39.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Africa was instrumental in establishing the deep seabed mining regime under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea but became apathetic following the 1994 Implementation Agreement. Currently, Africa is the only regional group that has not sponsored an entity to explore the international seabed area (the Area). While the African Union and the UN Economic Commission for Africa have integrated DSM into blue economy strategies and roadmaps, implementation has lagged. The report argues that investing in DSM is strategically appropriate for Africa as the global transition to a low-carbon economy may impact terrestrial mining. It recommends that African states consider sponsoring exploration contracts and that the AU adopt the Lomé Annexes and revise its Integrated Maritime Strategy to provide a clear legal and policy framework for DSM.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002145#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa played a critical role in the early development of the deep seabed mining regime, with ten African states sponsoring the resolution that led the UN General Assembly to create committees to study the peaceful use of the seabed beyond national jurisdiction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002145#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite its early involvement, Africa is currently the only regional group within the International Seabed Authority (ISA) that has not sponsored a state or private entity to secure a contract for exploration in the international seabed area.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002145#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African regional group in the ISA is actively contributing to the development of exploitation regulations, focusing on the 'Common Heritage of Mankind' principle, the Africa Mining Vision, and the operationalization of the Enterprise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002145#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African Union has identified deep seabed mining as a critical growth area within its blue economy frameworks, specifically mentioning it in Agenda 2063 and the 2019 Blue Economy Strategy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002145#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) developed a strategic roadmap in 2020 with seven goals to facilitate Africa's engagement with DSM, including the development of a legal regulatory framework and applying for exploration contracts, though the author notes no progress in implementing these goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002145#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Investing in deep seabed mining is presented as a strategic necessity for Africa because the global transition to a low-carbon economy will likely affect terrestrial mining industries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002145#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["blue economy","low-carbon economy","critical minerals","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Jamaica","Nauru","Egypt","Ghana","Kenya","Libya","Madagascar","Nigeria","Senegal","Somalia","Sudan","Tunisia","Togo","Ivory Coast","South Africa","Mauritius","Ethiopia","Uganda","Guinea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","legal review"]},{"id":"issafri-002692","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002692","title":"Peace & Security Council Report","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-05","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/psc-report-146v2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the African Union's struggle to deter military coups and combat terrorism, highlighting the limitations of current frameworks and the need for a more holistic approach. It focuses on the Malabo summit's agenda, including the Accra Declaration on unconstitutional changes of government and the establishment of an African Standby Force counterterrorism unit. The document also analyzes the security volatility in the Lake Chad Basin and the fragile humanitarian truce in Ethiopia, arguing for a shift from purely militaristic responses to those incorporating political and social measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002692#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Existing African Union (AU) frameworks have failed to prevent a rise in unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs), with military coups occurring even in countries undergoing AU-brokered political transitions such as Mali and Sudan.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002692#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AU's response to UCGs is primarily reactive and limited by the principle of state sovereignty, as member states often view constitutional amendments and internal protests as internal affairs beyond the AU's mandate.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002692#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa has become the global epicenter of terrorism, with Sub-Saharan Africa accounting for 48% of global terrorism deaths, despite the deployment of various counterterrorism peace-support missions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002692#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AU's counterterrorism strategy is deemed ineffective because it prioritizes uncoordinated militaristic responses over the political, social, and financial drivers of terrorism, while lacking robust intelligence sharing between member states.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002692#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Lake Chad Basin, insecurity remains volatile due to the activities of Boko Haram factions, including ISWAP and JAS, as well as the resurgence of Ansaru, which has reaffirmed its allegiance to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002692#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While a humanitarian truce was declared in Ethiopia on 24 March 2022 between the government and the Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), lasting peace is hindered by root causes and ongoing conflict with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002692#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["World","Equatorial Guinea","Mali","Sudan","Guinea","Burkina Faso","Chad","Ghana","Algeria","Zimbabwe","Cameroon","Nigeria","Niger","Ethiopia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","security analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-001969","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001969","title":"Kaduna’s train attacks add to Nigeria’s deep security problems","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2022-04-07","source_url":"https://issafrica.org/iss-today/kadunas-train-attacks-add-to-nigerias-deep-security-problems","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed"],"summary":{"text":"The March 2022 attacks on the Abuja-Kaduna railway, which resulted in deaths and 168 kidnappings, indicate a shift toward targeting state infrastructure by bandits and violent extremists. These groups, including Boko Haram and Ansaru, fund their operations through a kidnapping economy, with an estimated US$18.34 million paid in ransoms between 2011 and 2020. The attacks threaten the economic viability of the railway, which generates N300 million monthly, and highlight the need for intelligence-led security and the resolution of underlying socio-economic issues like poverty and corruption.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001969#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The March 28, 2022, attack on a Kaduna-bound train resulted in at least eight deaths and the kidnapping of 168 passengers, an event attributed to the failure of authorities to act on intelligence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001969#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is an increasing connection between bandits and jihadist groups, such as Ansaru and Boko Haram, who are primary actors in terror and violent crime across north-central and north-west Nigeria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001969#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Recent violence indicates a strategic shift toward targeting state infrastructure, including military bases and airports in Kaduna State, moving beyond traditional banditry to cause mass terror and casualties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001969#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Banditry is sustained by a 'kidnapping economy'; SB Morgen Intelligence estimates that Nigerians paid approximately US$18.34 million (N8.98 billion) in ransoms between June 2011 and March 2020, with 60% of that total paid from January 2016 to March 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001969#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Abuja-Kaduna railway is a critical economic asset generating at least N300 million monthly; attacks on this line threaten local economies, public transport, and the resuscitation of other rail networks like Lagos-Kano and Port Harcourt-Maiduguri.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001969#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Kaduna State","Abuja","Lagos","Kano","Port Harcourt","Maiduguri","Zaria","Kaura Namoda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"issafri-001851","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001851","title":"Transitional justice: Testing the waters in the Lake Chad Basin","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-04","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/WAR-39.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the applicability of transitional justice in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), noting that while the region is not yet post-conflict, there is a need for mechanisms to address mass human rights abuses. It finds that LCB countries are at different stages of conceptualising these tools and that a balance between restorative and retributive justice is necessary. The document highlights the importance of local ownership, the role of traditional and religious conflict resolution mechanisms, and the need to address root causes of violent extremism such as structural inequalities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001851#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Countries within the Lake Chad Basin are at varying stages of developing and conceptualising transitional justice tools, necessitating a regional approach that still allows for country-specific models tailored to national peculiarities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001851#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a general preference among interviewed community members for restorative justice over retributive justice, largely due to the administrative and structural failures of domestic judicial systems in the LCB.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001851#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transitional justice is frequently misunderstood by community members as being synonymous with disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) processes, specifically as a means for the outright reintegration of Boko Haram associates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001851#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The timing for implementing transitional justice varies by country and community based on the conflict cycle; some areas in Cameroon show signs of a post-intervention phase, while Nigeria faces complexities due to the lack of a cessation of hostilities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001851#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Traditional and religious mechanisms are viewed as legitimate and effective alternatives to formal courts, such as the use of the Qur'an for oaths of non-recidivism in Cameroon, the 'diah' practice in Chad, and 'sulhu' mediation in Nigeria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001851#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A transitional justice framework alone is insufficient to resolve the crisis; state institutions must also address the root causes of violent extremism, including structural inequalities and the inequitable management of resources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001851#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["restorative justice","governance"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","field research"]},{"id":"issafri-002688","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002688","title":"Peace & Security Council Report","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-03","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/psc-144.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the drivers of recent coups in West Africa and the need for the AU to strengthen normative frameworks against unconstitutional changes of government. It assesses the shift in EU financing from the Africa Peace Facility (APF) to the European Peace Facility (EPF), warning that this may increase European militarism and reduce AU leadership in peace operations. Additionally, it evaluates the transition from AMISOM to ATMIS in Somalia and the potential for joint AU-UN mediation to resolve the political stalemate in Sudan.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002688#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Recent coups in West Africa, including those in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso, are attributed to governance failures, such as the inability of states to provide security, education, and health, and the use of constitutional amendments to extend presidential terms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002688#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Existing AU normative instruments, such as the Lomé Declaration and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, are becoming less effective, and there is a call to update them to address 'legalistic contortions' used to extend executive power.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002688#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU's transition from the Africa Peace Facility (APF) to the European Peace Facility (EPF) in 2021 has removed the AU as the primary channel for EU financing of military missions in Africa, potentially undermining AU leadership and increasing EU interventionism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002688#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The European Peace Facility (EPF) allows for the supply of lethal weapons to partners, raising concerns about arms proliferation in Africa and the possibility that the model used for Ukraine could be replicated on the continent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002688#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on 1 April 2022 is viewed by some as a name change only, as it maintains a similar troop capacity of 18,000 and a similar mandate.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002688#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Sudan, a joint AU-UN mediation effort is proposed to break the stalemate following the 25 October 2021 coup, combining the AU's regional legitimacy with the UN's resource capacity to create a new political dispensation rather than simply restoring the previous partnership.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002688#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["governance","climate change","food security","climate diplomacy"],"geography_discussed":["Mali","Guinea","Burkina Faso","Guinea-Bissau","Chad","Ghana","Somalia","Sudan","Ukraine","South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","security assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-002825","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002825","title":"Socio-economic resilience in the shadow of Boko Haram","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-03","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war-38.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the erosion of socio-economic resilience in the Lake Chad Basin due to the Boko Haram conflict. It details the disruption of fishing, agriculture, and livestock trade, the negative impact of state-imposed trade bans and extortion, and the specific vulnerabilities of women. It argues that the lack of state development presence pushes communities toward 'perverse social contracts' with violent extremist groups for survival.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Boko Haram has generated revenue by seizing control of regional economic activities and imposing coercive taxes on local populations in areas under its territorial control.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State counterinsurgency efforts have paradoxically increased community vulnerability through the banning of essential goods—such as fish, fuel, and fertiliser—and the closure of traditional trade routes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The fishing sector has been severely impacted by the banning of access to the Lake Chad islands and the destruction of equipment by weeds in accessible areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural production has declined as farmers were driven from fertile islands to unsuitable sandy mainland areas, leading to increased competition for land and food insecurity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Livestock traders face significant financial losses due to the death of animals and the necessity of using longer, more expensive routes to reach the primary market in Nigeria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Women in the Lake Chad Basin are disproportionately affected by the crisis, facing bankruptcy, displacement, and gender-based violence, while often becoming the sole breadwinners for their households.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The absence of state development services in peripheral areas has led some communities to enter into 'perverse social contracts' with groups like ISWAP to secure their livelihoods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Security forces have contributed to economic instability through the extortion and harassment of traders and transporters at checkpoints.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The combination of conflict, COVID-19 border closures, and climate change—specifically frequent flooding—has further eroded the resilience of the population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002825#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","flood","agriculture","livestock","international trade","food security"],"geography_discussed":["Benin","Central African Republic","Sudan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["socio-economic impact assessment","resilience analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-001164","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001164","title":"Better ways to build peace and resilience in South Sudan","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-02","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/EAR-45.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report assesses the cyclical nature of violence in South Sudan and the failure of successive peace agreements to establish lasting stability. It argues that durable peace requires a multi-level approach that links local and national processes, prioritises long-term investment over 'quick-fix' events, and integrates livelihood support with social cohesion. The authors highlight the devastating humanitarian cost, noting that 8.3 million people needed assistance as of October 2021, and emphasize that resilience-building must address root causes of inequality and justice rather than treating resilience as an end goal. A key identified opportunity for innovation is addressing the gendered dimensions of conflict-driven hunger, which the report argues has been overlooked in national peace frameworks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Sudan has faced decades of cyclical violence, and recent delays in implementing the latest peace agreement have led to an increase in inter-communal and sub-national violence linked to national political actors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The humanitarian crisis is severe, with an estimated 8.3 million people requiring assistance as of October 2021, including 1.7 million internally displaced persons and 1.4 million malnourished children.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is a significant driver of humanitarian need, with 780,000 people affected by flooding in 2021 alone, particularly in Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile States.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Effective grassroots peacebuilding in South Sudan depends on the active involvement of traditional leaders and influential community and local government figures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Peacebuilding efforts often fail when they focus on short-term 'quick impact' activities or standalone conferences rather than long-term, iterative processes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical need for vertical and horizontal linkages between peace initiatives; without these, 'pockets of stability' are difficult to sustain, especially where national actors are parties to local conflicts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Resilience-building should not be viewed as an end goal in itself but must be grounded in equality, justice, and the addressing of root causes of social exclusion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conflict acts as a distinct shock and stressor that undermines resilience, yet few resilience measurement frameworks explicitly integrate conflict measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A significant gap exists between the recognized priorities of women—such as food security and sustainable livelihoods—and the actual provisions in national peace frameworks like the R-ARCSS.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The gendered dimensions of conflict-driven hunger and food rights represent a promising but overlooked area for innovation in both humanitarian practice and peacebuilding.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001164#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","food security","gender equality","flood"],"geography_discussed":["Jonglei","Unity","Upper Nile","Greater Equatoria","Koch County","Rubkona County","Tonj East County","Malakal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["synthesis","policy assessment","gap analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-002818","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002818","title":"Nigeria in 2050","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-02","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/WA-37.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Nigeria faces severe developmental challenges including endemic corruption, insecurity, and an overdependence on oil exports. Projections indicate that without intervention, Nigeria will have the highest number of poor people globally by 2050. The report proposes a 'Super Nigeria' scenario combining improvements in governance, human capital, infrastructure, agriculture, and economic diversification to potentially make Nigeria the fifth largest economy globally by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Nigeria is projected to have the highest number of poor people globally by 2050 if it remains on its current development path, with the absolute number of poor people expected to peak at about 120 million in 2038.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country's population is expected to grow rapidly, reaching approximately 452 million by 2050, which would make Nigeria the third most populous country in the world after India and China.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nigeria's economy is heavily dependent on the oil and gas sector, which accounts for over 90% of export earnings and more than half of government revenue, leaving the country vulnerable to commodity price shocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Severe security threats, including Boko Haram, ISWAP, and banditry, have caused massive loss of life and displacement, with Boko Haram violence alone estimated to have caused 350,000 deaths since 2009.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The education system is characterized by chronic underfunding and high illiteracy, with Nigeria having the world's highest number of out-of-school children, totaling approximately 10.5 million children aged 5–14.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public health outcomes are among the worst globally, with Nigeria having the highest maternal mortality ratio among lower middle-income African countries at 831 deaths per 100,000 live births.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Infrastructure deficits significantly hinder productivity, with the core infrastructure stock estimated at only 20% to 25% of GDP, far below the international benchmark of 70%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy poverty is widespread; as of 2019, roughly 80 million people lacked access to electricity, and the country relies heavily on fossil fuel back-up generators due to an unreliable national grid.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The agricultural sector is unable to meet the nutritional demands of the growing population, with a projected unmet demand of nearly 50% of total demand by 2050 under the current path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A combined 'Super Nigeria' scenario—integrating governance, human capital, infrastructure, agriculture, and economic diversification—could result in Nigeria having the fifth largest economy globally by 2050 with a GDP of about US$6.6 trillion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002818#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","desertification","renewable energy","carbon dioxide emissions","Climate-smart agriculture","petroleum industry","environmental degradation","gas flaring","deforestation"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Malaysia","Lagos","Benin","Niger"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis","socio-economic assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-002144","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002144","title":"Cyber diplomacy and Africa’s digital development","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-01","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-38.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that African states must transition from being 'junior partners' in global cyber diplomacy to active participants by developing common continental positions and leveraging their demographic position as a future technology market. It highlights the risks of 'norm colonisation' from cyber superpowers and the vulnerability of fragile democracies to information warfare. The author recommends that the African Union recruit 'cyber champions' from digitally mature states and uncouple trade negotiations from cyber diplomacy to ensure a unified approach to digital governance and security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002144#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"African states are frequently marginalized in international cyber discussions, often viewed as 'junior partners' whose presence is primarily to fill quotas in coalitions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002144#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The lack of unified, continent-wide positions leads to fragmented cyber policies across Africa, suggesting a need for 'cyber champions' from mature digital states to streamline these efforts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002144#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African nations face risks of 'norm colonisation,' where the surveillance cultures of superpowers, particularly China through the rollout of 'smart cities' and affordable hardware, influence domestic norms in environments with weak checks and balances.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002144#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fragile democracies in Africa are particularly susceptible to 'information warfare' or operations using AI to manipulate public opinion during critical periods such as elections, as seen in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002144#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African states may suffer 'collateral damage' from geopolitical cyber conflicts between superpowers rather than being the primary targets, as demonstrated by the 2016 'Anonymous' attacks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002144#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant gap in the ratification and implementation of cybercrime frameworks; the Malabo Convention has failed to achieve widespread adoption, and the Budapest Convention is often viewed as a 'foreign' instrument.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002144#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa can use its demographic growth—projected by the World Bank to provide one in four of the world's people by 2050—to position itself as a critical future marketplace and source of innovation to gain leverage in setting global digital rules.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002144#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["capacity building"],"geography_discussed":["Kenya","South Africa","Mauritius","Nigeria","Ethiopia","People's Republic of China","United States","United Kingdom","Zimbabwe","Ghana","Algeria","Egypt"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","strategic assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-002437","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002437","title":"Race to sustainability?","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-01","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-7.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes Egypt's path to 2050, highlighting critical risks from rapid population growth (projected to reach 150 million) and severe water shortages expected by 2025. It identifies systemic economic issues, including a large informal sector and high youth unemployment, alongside health crises driven by non-communicable diseases. Through the International Futures (IFs) platform, the authors simulate seven sectoral interventions—covering demography, economy, governance, energy, health, education, and agriculture—concluding that a combined policy push could nearly double the economy's size and significantly reduce extreme poverty by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Egypt's population is projected to grow to nearly 150 million by 2050, with a significant youth bulge that could increase the risk of instability if their needs are not met.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country faces a critical water shortage projected for 2025, a situation complicated by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the fact that agriculture consumes over 80% of freshwater resources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic growth is hindered by poor governance, patronage politics, and a massive informal sector estimated to constitute over 50% of GDP, where most jobs lack written contracts or social insurance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Egypt's health system is strained by a high prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which cause over 85% of total deaths, and a severe shortage of doctors due to mass emigration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite high primary education outcomes, bottlenecks exist at secondary and tertiary levels, with many graduates lacking the technical and soft skills required for the modern labour market.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Egypt is highly vulnerable to climate change, with projections that rising sea levels will affect 12% to 15% of fertile land in the Nile Delta and hotter temperatures will reduce agricultural productivity by 15%–20% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, and over 40% of its total food needs are met by imports, leaving the country vulnerable to international price shocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Simulations show that increasing female labour participation and access to modern contraception would have the most significant immediate impact on GDP and poverty reduction by 2033.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A combined scenario of holistic policy reforms across all sectors could result in a GDP of roughly US$2.3 trillion by 2050, nearly doubling the size of the economy compared to the current path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002437#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water scarcity","climate change adaptation","renewable energy","food security","sea level rise","carbon dioxide emissions","carbon tax","sustainable development","nuclear power","hydropower","solar energy","wind power"],"geography_discussed":["Cairo","Alexandria","Ethiopia","Tunisia","Morocco","Algeria","Sinai Peninsula"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis","sectoral assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-001519","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001519","title":"Are parenting programmes enough to prevent violence?","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2022","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-171.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study found that while parenting programmes can reduce parenting stress and improve children's mental health, their overall effectiveness is undermined by systemic issues such as intimate partner violence, substance misuse, and poor adult mental health. The intervention showed a trend toward reduced spanking and increased positive parenting among Afrikaans-speaking caregivers, but failed to achieve a community-wide shift due to linguistic barriers and severe socio-economic stressors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001519#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The intervention achieved a community-wide reduction in parenting stress and improvements in children's mental health, with internalising and externalising behaviours decreasing by 2% and 3% respectively. However, a community-wide shift toward positive parenting was not achieved.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001519#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Parenting programmes were effective in increasing parental involvement and reducing the use of spanking, although shouting and beating children with objects did not decrease.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001519#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The effectiveness of parenting interventions is significantly undermined by interconnected stressors, specifically intimate partner violence, substance misuse, and poor mental health. Intimate partner violence was associated with a 12% decrease in positive parenting.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001519#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The intervention faced significant linguistic and social barriers; isiXhosa-speaking caregivers did not participate in the programmes because suitable facilitators could not be identified during the research period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001519#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Parenting programmes influenced the behaviour of non-participants through social networks. Caregivers who attended sessions showed greater activity and influence, seeking and receiving social support and sharing knowledge with others.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001519#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among Afrikaans-speaking women, community-wide improvements in positive parenting were observed between waves three and four, driven by engagement in the social activation process and indirect exposure to the programmes, though these changes did not persist to wave five.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001519#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["mental health"],"geography_discussed":["Western Cape","George"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["impact assessment","longitudinal study","social network analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-001540","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001540","title":"Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2022","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Africa, where risks are amplified by existing governance deficits and poor development. It emphasizes that while climate-driven scarcity can fuel conflict, causality is complex and depends on political and historical contexts. The authors advocate for integrating climate action into the broader development agenda, transitioning from a narrative of vulnerability to one of economic opportunity through renewable energy and climate-resilient infrastructure. Key recommendations include strengthening the evidence base for climate security, increasing climate finance flows, and expanding climate diplomacy beyond the UNFCCC to platforms like the G20 and the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001540#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change does not cause security risks in isolation; rather, risks emerge from the interaction of climate stressors with political, economic, social, and environmental factors. These risks are intensified in areas with governance deficits, inadequate infrastructure, and economic exclusion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001540#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water security is identified as a primary channel for climate security risks. The combination of climate-driven scarcity and non-climate drivers—such as pollution, inefficient use, and governance failures—can lead to political instability and conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001540#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Lake Chad Basin, the lake has shrunk by approximately 90% since the 1960s due to climate change, drought, and water resource overuse. This environmental degradation has increased farmer-pastoralist conflicts and complicated the impact of the Boko Haram insurgency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001540#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While climate change can multiply conflict risks—with research suggesting a 0.5% temperature increase raises armed conflict risk by 10% to 20%—direct causality is difficult to quantify. Attributing conflict solely to biophysical impacts ignores critical political and historical contexts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001540#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate action can be used as a tool for economic development. Transitioning to decentralized renewable energy and investing in climate-friendly technologies can create new employment and diversify economies, while weatherproofing agriculture and tourism protects the backbone of the African economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001540#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current climate governance is described as siloed and insufficient. The authors argue that climate security discussions are missing from the UNFCCC and that African nations must move from making pledges in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to actual implementation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001540#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate finance","renewable energy","energy transition","water security","food security","climate change adaptation","climate change mitigation","just transition","Nationally Determined Contributions","economic diversity","climate governance","climate diplomacy"],"geography_discussed":["Chad Basin","Nigeria","Somalia","Cameroon","Chad","Niger","Sahel","Horn of Africa","Southern Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","risk assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-001602","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001602","title":"Value of ‘theory of change’ for community-based organisations","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2022","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief-177.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the development of Theories of Change (ToCs) for three community-based organisations (CBOs) in the Western Cape and Northern Cape. It finds that while ToCs provide a strategic framework linking theory to practice and align community-led interventions with global best practices, their success depends heavily on organisational ownership, in-person engagement, and inclusivity regarding language barriers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001602#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Community-based organisations (CBOs) are well-positioned to design contextually relevant interventions due to their deep understanding of the populations they serve and their established methods of meaningful community engagement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001602#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The development of Theories of Change (ToCs) can provide CBOs with a strategic framework that connects theory to practice and establishes a foundation for monitoring, measuring, and reporting the impact of their work.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001602#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is strong alignment between the community-led interventions of the studied CBOs and established violence prevention literature, confirming the value of ground-up programme strategies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001602#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The effectiveness of ToC development is significantly influenced by the mode of engagement; in-person meetings fostered more meaningful connections and greater organisational buy-in compared to virtual consultations, which suffered from technical disruptions and a lack of personal touch.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001602#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Language barriers can hinder the inclusivity of the ToC process, particularly when consultants and CBO staff do not share a primary language; this can be mitigated by using reflection tools like worksheets in the staff's preferred language.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001602#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For a ToC to be successfully adopted and owned by an organisation, the process must be led by the end users rather than being commissioned as an external administrative task.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001602#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief","case study"]},{"id":"issafri-002622","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002622","title":"Violence Prevention Forum: What is violence prevention? A new definition","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2022","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-169-01.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights"],"summary":{"text":"The Violence Prevention Forum (VPF) developed a shared definition of violence prevention in 2021 through a collaborative process involving government, NGOs, researchers, and the private sector. The resulting definition describes violence prevention as \"the whole of society working deliberately and sustainably to remove sources of harm and inequality, and heal woundedness, by intentionally growing an ethic of mutual care, respect and inclusion to build peace.\" The VPF emphasizes that preventing violence requires addressing structural causes such as poverty, racism, and inequality, and advocates for a \"whole-of-society approach\" that is accessible across all 11 official South African languages.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002622#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Violence Prevention Forum (VPF) established a shared definition of violence prevention: \"the whole of society working deliberately and sustainably to remove sources of harm and inequality, and heal woundedness, by intentionally growing an ethic of mutual care, respect and inclusion to build peace.\"","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002622#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The development of this definition was a multisectoral process involving representatives from government departments, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), academia, international organisations, development partners, donors, the private sector, and children.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002622#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The VPF identifies that effective violence prevention must address deeply rooted structural drivers, specifically poverty, inequality, racism, and prejudice.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002622#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The definition was designed based on specific principles to ensure it is accessible and proactive, including the use of non-violent, jargon-free language and a \"whole-of-society approach.\"","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002622#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The shared definition is intended to serve as a foundation for advocacy, policy development, and the creation of indicators to measure the success of interventions across South Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002622#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To ensure maximum accessibility, the VPF intends to make the definition available in sign language and all 11 of South Africa's official languages, with a specific version developed by and for children.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002622#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"issafri-000825","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000825","title":"Getting Goudoumaria right: are Boko Haram defectors reintegrating safely?","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2021-12-08","source_url":"https://issafrica.org/iss-today/getting-goudoumaria-right-are-boko-haram-defectors-reintegrating-safely","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Goudoumaria reception centre in Niger provides socio-economic rehabilitation for Boko Haram defectors, but the programme faces significant challenges including funding shortages, inadequate vocational training, and gender-based stereotypes. While it has processed at least 375 individuals, issues such as long detention periods for the first cohort and a lack of psychosocial support for the second have hindered effectiveness. Economic instability and insufficient installation allowances have led some beneficiaries to return to Boko Haram, highlighting the need for improved monitoring and sustainable reintegration strategies to ensure regional stabilisation in the Lake Chad Basin.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000825#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Goudoumaria reception centre has provided socio-economic rehabilitation to at least 375 former Boko Haram associates, including 30 women, utilizing a process of religious re-education, re-socialisation, and vocational training.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000825#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The first group of approximately 243 beneficiaries experienced excessive stays at the centre from July 2017 to December 2019 due to funding delays and legal ambiguities, leading to feelings of imprisonment and attempted escapes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000825#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic reintegration has been largely unsuccessful as many ex-associates found their vocational training unsuitable for the market, sold their installation kits to survive, or found the 50,000 CFA installation allowance insufficient.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000825#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Programmatic failures and poor economic outcomes have discouraged potential defectors and resulted in at least two beneficiaries returning to Boko Haram.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000825#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Gender-based issues persist within the programme, including the reporting of at least one rape and a systemic failure to recognize women as full beneficiaries, often limiting their access to the programme to their status as wives or daughters of combatants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000825#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Funding instability has negatively impacted subsequent cohorts; the second group of 46 people had a shorter stay, fewer vocational options (reduced from nine to six), and no psychosocial support, while a third group currently lacks an adapted programme due to a lack of funding.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000825#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Diffa Region","Goudoumaria","Cameroon","Nigeria"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["program evaluation"]},{"id":"issafri-001047","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001047","title":"Unscrambling subsidiarity in the African Union","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-12","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AR-37-Rev.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that subsidiarity in the African Union (AU) is currently used as a political tool rather than a clear legal principle, leading to competition and inconsistency between the AU and regional mechanisms (RMs). It highlights that the lack of operational definitions and contradictory legal frameworks—such as the 2007 MoU and the PSC Protocol—creates confusion in the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). The authors suggest shifting the focus from a division of competences to a model of complementarity, where regions act as 'first responders' while the AU remains the 'primary actor'. Key recommendations include establishing a comprehensive legal, policy, and financial framework, utilizing the AU Peace Fund for alignment, and creating operational liaison offices between the AU Commission and RMs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001047#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Subsidiarity in the African context is primarily a political tool used to regulate activities between regional and continental levels, rather than a defined legal principle, and is often used by regional bodies to protect themselves from an AU peace and security architecture perceived as intrusive.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001047#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AU's legal framework for managing relations between continental and regional levels is characterized by ambiguity and contradictions, which leads to inconsistent decision-making and competition over the ownership of solutions within the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001047#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There are three main trends in how subsidiarity is implemented: using regions as vehicles for AU involvement, member states using regional frameworks to circumvent AU involvement, and regional mechanisms (notably SADC) asserting themselves as the sole first responders to crises.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001047#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The assumption that geographical proximity automatically ensures effectiveness is questioned, as evidenced by Mozambique's preference for a bilateral Rwandan intervention over a SADC deployment, and the Central African Republic's preference for the ICGLR over ECCAS and CEMAC.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001047#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The European Union's African Peace Facility (APF) helps assert the primacy of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) by requiring PSC endorsement for peace support operations to receive funding.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001047#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["governance","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["World","European Union","Burundi","Mozambique","Central African Republic","Benin","Togo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","institutional review"]},{"id":"issafri-001163","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001163","title":"Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-12","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that Ethiopia's political transition since 2018 has been undermined by escalating inter-ethnic and communal violence. This instability is driven by a combination of militant ethno-nationalism, deep ideological divides between pan-Ethiopianism and ethnonationalism, and rivalries among political elites who mobilise the masses. The document highlights the role of state fragility, where institutional indifference, incompetence, and the complicity of some officials have allowed conflicts to proliferate. Specific regional tensions are detailed, including disputes over autonomy in the SNNP region and racial and economic grievances in Benishangul Gumuz. The report concludes that stability requires a comprehensive political settlement, an inclusive national dialogue, and the professionalisation of security forces to dismantle illicit arms networks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The liberalisation of the political space after 2018, occurring alongside rising militant ethno-national sentiments and deepening political divisions, contributed to a proliferation of violence across the country.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Violence between October 2019 and late 2020 was primarily driven by inter-group tensions, perceived security threats, and competing demands for autonomy, economic resources, and secessionist aspirations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State institutions failed to prevent or stop violence due to fragility, indifference, and in some instances, the active complicity of officials who incited conflict or impeded mediation for personal job security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Ethiopian political landscape is split between two competing ideologies: ethnonationalism, which views the state's history as one of domination over oppressed nationalities, and pan-Ethiopianism, which views the institutionalisation of ethnicity as a ploy to undermine a united Ethiopia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The formation of the Prosperity Party (PP) and its 'Medemer' philosophy created suspicions that the administration is unitarist, leading to antagonism from groups like the TPLF and fueling conflicts over 'ideological purity' in Oromia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Benishangul Gumuz, violence is driven by racial divisions based on skin tone (tikur vs key), economic deprivation, and fears that the government intends to scrap self-administration in favor of an imperial mode of rule.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Political elites have used the concept of 'group worth' to mobilise the masses, linking individual value to the group's status to justify violence against 'out-groups'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State responses to violence have often been counterproductive, with repressive tactics and heavy-handed security interventions leading to increased deaths and property loss, particularly in the Wolayta zone.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001163#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Oromia Region","Amhara Region","Benishangul-Gumuz Region","Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s (SNNP)","Gambela Region"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["conflict analysis","political assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-002748","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002748","title":"Costs and benefits of preventing violence","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-12","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-47.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that community-based organisations (CBOs) in South Africa provide violence prevention and youth development services at a low cost—under R7,000 per family per year—while generating significant tangible and intangible social benefits. Using case studies of Net vir Pret and Seven Passes Initiative, the analysis suggests a benefit-to-cost ratio of more than 2:1. The authors highlight the adaptability of CBOs compared to state institutions and call for the South African government to develop funding benchmarks to sustainably support these organisations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002748#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Violence prevention and community development programmes delivered by community-based organisations (CBOs) provide benefits to stakeholders that exceed costs by a ratio of more than 2:1.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002748#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The annual cost for NGOs to deliver a suite of services, including youth development, after-school care, and parenting support, is estimated to be less than R7,000 per family served.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002748#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Specific evidence-based parenting programmes are highly cost-effective; for example, one trained facilitator delivering four programmes for children aged 0 to 18 costs R967.80 per family.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002748#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A cost-benefit study of the PLH teen programme showed a return on investment ratio of 1:3.7, with input costs of R12,007.52 to prevent one case of abuse against savings of R44,615.40 per case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002748#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"CBOs demonstrate greater flexibility and adaptability than state institutions, as evidenced by their ability to pivot to WhatsApp support and innovative food security measures during COVID-19 lockdowns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002748#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conducting cost-benefit analyses for social programmes in South Africa is hindered by the difficulty of monetising intangible social goods, the lack of benchmarked NGO salaries, and a shortage of long-term data on impacted families.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002748#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Comparisons with United States programmes, such as the Nurse-Family Partnership (which has a 2.73:1 benefit-cost ratio), indicate that the costs of US-based interventions are significantly higher than those of NGO-delivered programmes in South Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002748#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["public finance"],"geography_discussed":["United States","United Kingdom","Washington"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","case study"]},{"id":"issafri-001298","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001298","title":"Monitoring violence prevention","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2021-11","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ monitoring-vp-rev.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the gaps in South Africa's violence-prevention M&E framework, noting that government monitoring focuses on financial compliance and service access rather than long-term outcomes. It highlights the reporting burden on NGOs, the lack of a unified national results framework, and the disconnect between administrative data and the lived experiences of communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001298#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa lacks a shared national results framework for measuring the activities and outcomes of violence-prevention policies, leading to fragmented reporting across different policy instruments and provincial departments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001298#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Government monitoring of violence-prevention programmes primarily focuses on outputs and access to services—such as the number of children or families reached—because this data is easily verifiable, rather than tracking qualitative outcomes or the reduction of risk factors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001298#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The M&E system is heavily driven by financial accountability and the Public Finance Management Act of 1999, turning reporting into a compliance exercise for auditors rather than a tool for assessing programme effectiveness.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001298#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a systemic failure to integrate the outcome data and evaluations from NGOs into national reporting, meaning the actual contribution of community-based interventions to violence prevention is not adequately recorded.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001298#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"NGOs face a significant administrative and financial burden to meet government reporting requirements, which are often not covered by the limited state funding provided for services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001298#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The rigid nature of public finance systems and service level agreements hinders the agility of NGOs, making it difficult for them to reallocate funds to respond to emergent community needs, such as those arising during the Covid-19 pandemic.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001298#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Western Cape","Gauteng","Limpopo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","institutional assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-001300","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001300","title":"The state of peace and security in East Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-11","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that East Africa remains fragile due to violent extremism, insurgency, and resource-based conflicts, despite governance progress in some states. It highlights the prevalence of unregistered firearms, particularly in Somalia, and the role of anocracies in driving political instability. The document maps the overlapping mandates of regional organisations like the EAC and IGAD and recommends stronger inter-REC coordination and standardised regional monitoring to address information gaps.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The eastern African sub-region is characterized by high volatility, with Somalia and South Sudan identified as two of the five least safe and most insecure countries globally.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Political instability in the region is linked to the nature of state power, where most countries are classified as anocracies (except Kenya) and political victory often results in a winner-take-all control of resources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between January 2015 and July 2019, over 27,000 incidents of violence affected communities in the Horn and Great Lakes regions, with Somalia, the DRC, South Sudan, and Sudan being the worst affected.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conflict in pastoralist areas has evolved from traditional cattle raiding to commercialized livestock theft, disputes over extractive resources, and violent extremism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The region faces a significant challenge with illicit arms, with an estimated 9,073,000 unregistered firearms; Somalia and its breakaway regions of Somaliland and Puntland are the most militarized.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Diplomatic tensions between Rwanda and Uganda are driven by strategic interests in the DRC, accusations of espionage, and the alleged infiltration of security apparatuses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The maritime border dispute between Kenya and Somalia threatens to undermine counter-terrorism efforts against al-Shabaab and complicates regional maritime security and piracy responses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional intergovernmental organisations, including the EAC and IGAD, have overlapping mandates and memberships, but often suffer from capacity and resource constraints that hinder regional diplomacy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State-level peacebuilding varies, with Rwanda's post-genocide reconciliation and Gacaca courts cited as a success story, while South Sudan struggles with ethnicised political power.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Everyday peace indicators show that while Burundi and Tanzania have higher perceptions of safety, Kenya and Uganda report higher crime victimisation rates, particularly regarding theft.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001300#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change"],"geography_discussed":["World","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Kenya","Somalia","South Sudan","Ethiopia","Sudan","Burundi","Rwanda","Uganda","Tanzania","Somaliland","Puntland","Zanzibar Islands"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scoping study","baseline assessment","actor mapping"]}]}