{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"organization":["Institute for Security Studies"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":1466,"relation":"eq"},"page":13,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=13","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?organization=institute-for-security-studies&page=14","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-000236","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000236","title":"The Contribution of Labour, Capital and Technology to Growth","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=03-contribution-of-labour","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes Africa's economic growth drivers, arguing that while labour-fueled growth is unlikely to emulate other regions due to a late demographic dividend, future growth must rely on physical capital accumulation and multifactor productivity (MFP). It highlights that for low- and lower-middle-income African countries, poor physical capital is the primary drag on growth, whereas upper-middle-income countries are constrained by poor human capital.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000236#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa's historical economic growth was hindered by the loss of labour through slavery and the legacy of colonialism, which left sub-Saharan populations with limited education and infrastructure to engage in global trade.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000236#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Post-independence industrialisation efforts in countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and the former Ivory Coast failed because they lacked a foundation in agriculture and domestic economic linkages, relying instead on subsidies and aid.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000236#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa may enter a demographic window of opportunity by mid-century; the ratio of working-age persons to dependents improved to 1.3 to one by 2023 and is projected to reach 1.6 to one by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000236#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Due to high dependency ratios and low employment growth, labour contributes the least to sustainable growth in low- and lower-middle-income African countries; growth is instead driven by multifactor productivity (MFP) and capital accumulation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000236#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The primary constraints to growth vary by income level: physical capital (infrastructure) is the largest drag for low- and lower-middle-income groups, while human capital (education and health) constrains upper-middle-income countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000236#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["economic growth","infrastructure investment","agriculture","food security"],"geography_discussed":["Ghana","Nigeria","Burkina Faso","Guinea","Ivory Coast"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["growth-accounting analysis","scenario forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-000253","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000253","title":"African Responses to Climate Change","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research paper examines the role of Africa's natural carbon sinks, particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel, and evaluates the potential for a global carbon tax to fund the continent's energy transition and conservation efforts. It analyzes various carbon pricing scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment model aligns best with the Paris Agreement's principles of fairness and historical responsibility.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000253#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Deforestation and land-use changes are significant drivers of global emissions, contributing between 11% and 20% of the total. Africa experienced the second-highest deforestation rate between 2000 and 2018, with 49 million hectares lost, primarily due to cropland expansion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000253#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Congo Basin is a critical global carbon sink, absorbing 4% of world CO2 emissions, with peatlands storing approximately 30 billion metric tonnes of carbon. However, the region has lost 30% of its forest cover since 2001, largely within the DR Congo, due to unregulated mining, logging, and agricultural expansion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000253#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Desertification affects approximately 45% of Africa's land area, with the Sahel region being particularly impacted. The African Union's Great Green Wall initiative, launched in 2007, aims to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land and capture 250 million tons of CO2 by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000253#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current global carbon pricing is fragmented and largely insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals; only 1% of emissions covered by a carbon price are at a recommended price range sufficient to curb emissions. Collectively, carbon taxes and emission trading systems cover 24% of global emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000253#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), starting in 2026, targets carbon-intensive goods like steel, aluminium, and cement. There are concerns that CBAM may harm African economies, including South Africa, which is considering a challenge at the World Trade Organisation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000253#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among four illustrative carbon tax scenarios, the 'Differentiated Pay' scenario—where tax rates are based on income classification—is the most effective at reducing emissions and aligns with the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'. This scenario could result in atmospheric CO2 levels being 3.4% lower in 2063 compared to the current path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000253#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon sequestration","deforestation","carbon price","carbon tax","desertification","land degradation","energy transition","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","Paris Agreement","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Congo Basin","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Mozambique","Sahel","South Africa","European Union","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","scenario modeling"]},{"id":"issafri-000258","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000258","title":"The AfCFTA Conclusion: Advancing Africa’s trade","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=12-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the necessity of the AfCFTA for overcoming Africa's fragmented markets and limited intra-continental trade. It highlights that success depends on regional value chains, infrastructure investment, and the removal of non-tariff barriers. The authors emphasize that while the AfCFTA is crucial for long-term growth, national governments must manage the short-term political and economic pain of tariff losses and address the challenges of integrating unequal economies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000258#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"African economies are currently too fragmented and small to attract significant foreign investment or build competitive productive capacity at scale without intensified trade agreements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000258#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The ultimate success of the AfCFTA relies on the creation of regional value chains characterized by efficient multimodal transit corridors, fast customs procedures, and frictionless trade, alongside strong national and continental leadership to harmonize policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000258#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AfCFTA cannot solve the high cost of critical manufacturing inputs because these are primarily sourced from non-member, higher-income countries; therefore, Africa must establish separate trade agreements with those external producers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000258#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Digital technologies are expected to increase trade in services but may reduce trade in physical goods, reflecting a global trend toward knowledge-intensive value chains.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000258#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional integration faces significant political obstacles due to immediate short-term losses in tariff revenue and increased poverty, which must be mitigated by national leadership through social safety nets and labor market flexibility.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000258#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A primary structural challenge for the AfCFTA is the integration of highly unequal economic partners, specifically contrasting upper-middle-income nations like South Africa and Botswana with low-income countries such as Mozambique, Eswatini, and Lesotho.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000258#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["economic diversity","infrastructure"],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","Botswana","Mozambique","Eswatini","Lesotho","People's Republic of China","United Kingdom","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-000263","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000263","title":"State Futures in the Global South","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=01-introduction","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document establishes a conceptual framework for analyzing the future of state governance in the Global South. It defines state governance as the structures and processes used to exercise authority and manage resources, emphasizing a shift away from Global North-centric democratic models toward 'accountable governance'. The research employs a foresight-driven approach to investigate how technology, economic transitions, and geopolitical shifts influence governance trajectories across seven defined regions of the Global South.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000263#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The research challenges the Global North's perspective that state governance is a linear progression from non-democratic to democratic systems, arguing that this view ignores indigenous governance systems often suppressed by colonialism and imperialism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000263#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For many countries in the Global South, the primary objective for governance development is the achievement of accountable governance and the creation of structures that support responsible governance, rather than the adoption of Western-style democracy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000263#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis identifies several key drivers and forces that are reshaping governance models in the Global South, specifically technology, economic transitions, geopolitical shifts, and the role of non-state actors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000263#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa","Middle East and North Africa","Latin America and the Caribbean","Central Asia","South Asia","Southeast Asia","East Asia","Global North"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["foresight analysis","conceptual framework"]},{"id":"issafri-000265","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000265","title":"Efforts and Achievements in the AfCFTA Negotiations","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=08-efforts-achievements-afcfta-negotiations","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The AfCFTA agreement, effective since January 2021, is being implemented in three phases covering trade in goods, services, investment, and digital trade. While 47 of 55 countries had ratified the agreement by January 2024, progress varies across specific instruments, such as the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000265#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The AfCFTA negotiations are structured into three distinct phases: Phase 1 covers trade in goods and services; Phase 2 addresses intellectual property rights, investment, and competition policy; and Phase 3 focuses on e-commerce, women, and youth in trade. A Protocol on Digital Trade, adopted in February 2024 with eight additional annexes adopted in February 2025, aims to harmonise standards for cybersecurity, data protection, and digital payments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000265#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AfCFTA aims for 97% tariff liberalisation of goods by 2034. Under Phase I, member states agreed to fully liberalise 90% of tariff lines to zero rates, while 7% are designated as sensitive products with a 10% tariff rate, and 3% are entirely excluded from liberalisation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000265#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), ratified by 44 countries by January 2024, allows transactions in 42 African currencies without using third-party currencies like the US dollar or Euro. South Africa has not ratified PAPSS due to concerns over currency stability, regulatory alignment, and trade-payment risks, despite controlling over 80% of Africa's manufactured goods trade.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000265#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementation of the AU Protocol of Free Movement of Persons has been slow, with only 34 countries signing and only four countries—Rwanda, Niger, Mali, and São Tomé and Príncipe—ratifying it. This slow pace is noted as a concern for the success of the AfCFTA, especially regarding trade in services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000265#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Guided Trade Initiative (GTI), launched in October 2022 as a 'pilot phase', initially involved seven State Parties across five regions to test the legal, institutional, and trade policy environment of the AfCFTA.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000265#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["trade policy","e-commerce"],"geography_discussed":["Eritrea","Benin","Liberia","Libya","Madagascar","Somalia","South Sudan","Sudan","South Africa","Rwanda","Niger","Mali","São Tomé and Príncipe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","progress report"]},{"id":"issafri-000266","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000266","title":"The Lagos Plan of Action and Structural Adjustment","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=06-lagos-plan","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the shift in African development from state-led industrialization and the pan-Africanist Lagos Plan of Action (1980) to the market-oriented Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) of the 1980s. It argues that while the Lagos Plan sought collective self-reliance, it failed due to a lack of national integration and monitoring. Conversely, SAPs—driven by the 'Washington Consensus'—forced devaluation, privatization, and spending cuts in health and education, which the author contends led to a 'race to the bottom,' stunted industrialization, and a decline in per capita income between 1980 and 1994.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000266#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 1980 Lagos Plan of Action aimed to create a self-reliant regional African economy and an African Economic Community to reduce dependence on the global economic system. However, it failed because African governments did not integrate it into national frameworks and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) lacked the authority to enforce compliance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000266#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The World Bank and IMF implemented Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) based on the 'Washington Consensus,' which viewed Africa's economic issues as internal governance failures rather than systemic global problems. These programmes required highly indebted countries to privatize the economy and reduce spending on education and health to prioritize debt repayment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000266#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"SAPs led to the abandonment of national industrial policies in countries including Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, and Tanzania. The shift toward trade liberalization and a 'small state' resulted in a lack of industrialization and unequal development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000266#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic impact of these policies was severe: per capita average income in Africa peaked in 1980 and declined until 1994, with an average income decrease of approximately 12% between 1980 and 1990, and a further 2% decline in the early 1990s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000266#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 1987 Brundtland Report ('Our Common Future') introduced the concept of 'sustainable development,' linking economic growth, social equality, and the environment. This report, and the subsequent 1992 Rio Earth Summit, prompted the World Bank and IMF to re-evaluate the effectiveness of their Structural Adjustment Programmes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000266#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sustainable development","industrial policy","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Ethiopia","Ghana","Kenya","Mauritius","Mozambique","Nigeria","Senegal","Tanzania","Brazil","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["historical analysis","policy assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000268","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000268","title":"AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=04-poverty","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that while the percentage of Africans living in extreme poverty has declined since the 1990s, the absolute number of poor people continues to rise due to rapid population growth. Africa is projected to miss the 2030 SDG goal of eliminating extreme poverty, with several countries likely to maintain poverty rates above 50% by that date. The document attributes these challenges to high inequality, over-reliance on natural resources, and bad governance, noting that Sub-Saharan Africa carries the largest global burden of extreme poverty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000268#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"While the proportion of the African population in extreme poverty has decreased since the early 1990s, the absolute number of people affected has steadily increased since 1960 and is expected to continue rising for several years. This trend is driven by rapid population growth, modest economic growth, and high inequality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000268#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa is projected to fail to meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of reducing the extreme poverty rate to below 3% by 2030. By 2030, seven countries—Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, the Central African Republic, Burundi, the DR Congo, and Lesotho—are expected to have more than 50% of their populations living in extreme poverty based on the US$2.15 threshold.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000268#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Using the US$2.15 monetary threshold, 29% of Africa's population was extremely poor in 2023. This ratio is forecast to drop to 26% by 2030 and 18% by 2043. However, due to population growth, the absolute number of extremely poor Africans will only decrease slightly from 437 million in 2023 to 409 million in 2043, contrasting sharply with the rest of the world where extreme poverty is projected to fall from 292 million to 174 million in the same period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000268#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest global burden of extreme poverty, as North Africa has effectively eliminated it. Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Africa had the highest extreme poverty rate in 2023 (49%), while Eastern Africa had the lowest (33%). In 2023, Madagascar had the highest rate at 78%, with South Sudan, Burundi, Malawi, and Mozambique all exceeding 70%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000268#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The inability to reduce extreme poverty is linked to factors including corruption, bad governance, high-income inequality, low asset ownership, restricted access to public services, and an over-reliance on natural resources. Additionally, high fertility rates limit the per capita income increases resulting from economic growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000268#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["economic growth","Sustainable Development Goals"],"geography_discussed":["Mozambique","Madagascar","Malawi","Central African Republic","Burundi","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Lesotho","Mali","South Africa","Uganda","Kampala","European Union","North Africa","sub-Saharan Africa","Central Africa","Southern Africa","Western Africa","East Africa","South Sudan","World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","trend analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000271","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000271","title":"AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=07-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document concludes that African development is a non-linear, complex process requiring a shift from 'grand schemes' to the 'mundane functions' of governance and technical implementation. It emphasizes that success depends on national ownership, a social contract between citizens and the state, and consistent investment in knowledge creation and innovation to move up the productivity curve. The author outlines eight requirements for transformation, including strategic prioritization of catalytic interventions like agriculture and digital infrastructure, and the capacity for implementation through capable civil services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000271#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Development in Africa is characterized by diversity and non-linear progress, often involving 'persistent failure, wastage, exploitation and misery' rather than smooth forecasts, meaning countries will follow varying trajectories and may not advance across all transitions simultaneously.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000271#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Effective transformation relies on improving 'mundane functions' such as land reform for food security, creating facilitative investment environments, and meticulous bureaucratic efforts to remove impediments to innovation and entrepreneurship.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000271#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve higher welfare and productivity, African governments must consistently invest in knowledge creation, research, and development, particularly within the manufacturing sector, as global value chains are becoming increasingly knowledge-intensive.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000271#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The realization of AU Agenda 2063 requires eight specific pillars: visionary leadership, national ownership (avoiding outsourcing to donors), strategic prioritization of catalytic interventions (e.g., agriculture in low-income settings or digital infrastructure in urban areas), implementation capacity, a practical developmental state, management of the political economy, resilience against shocks (such as climate events), and a belief in African potential.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000271#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agriculture","economic development","industrial manufacturing","governance"],"geography_discussed":["East Asia","Latin America"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"issafri-000272","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000272","title":"Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes the trajectory of Africa's fossil fuel emissions, noting that while the continent currently contributes less than 5% of global emissions, this share is projected to rise to 12.5% by 2063 under the Current Path and 15% under the Combined scenario. It identifies a small number of countries—most notably Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa—as the primary drivers of the continent's carbon footprint, with Nigeria projected to become the continent's largest emitter by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000272#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa's share of global fossil fuel emissions is projected to increase from less than 5% in 2023 to 9% in 2050 and 12.5% by 2063 under the Current Path. Under the Combined scenario, which incorporates ambitious development improvements, this contribution rises to 10.5% in 2050 and 15% by 2063.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000272#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Four countries accounted for 66% of Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2023: South Africa (28%), Egypt (17%), Algeria (11%), and Nigeria (11%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000272#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nigeria is projected to become Africa's largest fossil fuel emitter by 2050 and the world's fifth-largest by 2063, contributing 2.4% to global emissions (or 2.8% in the Combined scenario).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000272#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa is expected to reduce its carbon emissions from 125 million tons in 2023 to 34 million by 2050 on the Current Path, dropping from the largest to the third-largest emitter in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000272#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Egypt's climate policies and NDC targets are described as 'wholly insufficient' and aligned with a 4°C global trajectory, with the country projected to be Africa's second-largest and the world's eighth-largest fossil fuel emitter by 2063 in the Combined scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000272#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Nationally Determined Contributions","decarbonization","renewable energy","natural gas","coal-fired power station","climate policy"],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","Egypt","Algeria","Nigeria","Ethiopia","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Mozambique","Tanzania","Uganda","Ivory Coast","Morocco","Sudan","Libya","Seychelles","World","European Union","India","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000294","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000294","title":"AFRICA HEALTH AND WASH FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=05-health-and-wash&topic=05-drivers-of-change","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the structural, social, environmental, and geopolitical forces influencing Africa's health and WaSH sectors. It highlights the dual nature of demographic shifts as both a pressure on services and a potential development dividend, while noting that climate change is intensifying water stress and disease distribution. The text emphasizes the role of technological innovation, the need for reduced aid dependency in financing, and the impact of social norms on service access. Finally, it discusses Africa's evolving role in global health diplomacy amidst uncertainties regarding international cooperation and geopolitical rivalry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000294#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa's demographic trajectory, characterized by a youthful population and high fertility rates, puts pressure on basic services but offers a potential 'demographic dividend' if supported by strategic investment in health, education, and employment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000294#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is exacerbating health and WaSH challenges by increasing water stress, altering disease vector distribution, and causing climate-related displacement, particularly in regions prone to floods and droughts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000294#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While digital health and sanitation innovations allow African countries to bypass traditional infrastructure gaps, there is a risk that these technologies could increase inequality due to digital infrastructure gaps and limited connectivity in rural and marginalized areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000294#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African health systems are characterized by underfunding and a heavy reliance on external aid for essential services like immunisation and HIV treatment, necessitating a shift toward increased domestic budget allocations and improved public financial management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000294#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa's influence in global health diplomacy is growing through the African Union and Africa CDC, but future progress is threatened by donor fatigue, geopolitical rivalry, and fractured multilateralism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000294#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["public health","climate change"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["foresight","trend analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000296","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000296","title":"AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research paper presents a Gender scenario for Africa that models the developmental impact of reducing gender gaps in labour, politics, education, and health. It compares a 'business-as-usual' path against an ambitious but realistic reduction in inequalities from 2024 to 2033, maintaining those gains until 2043. The model emphasizes the bidirectional relationship between gender equality and economic growth, noting that while empowering women drives development, economic growth also creates the fiscal space to further reduce gender gaps.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000296#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa has seen measurable progress in gender equality, specifically in education and labour force participation. The ratio of females' mean years of education to males' rose from 0.5 in 1960 to 0.8 in 2019, and the labour force participation gap narrowed from 23 percentage points in 1990 to 17 percentage points in 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000296#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite progress, significant inequalities persist: women are under-represented in politics and the labour market, face higher risks of violence, and have limited asset ownership. In sub-Saharan Africa, the gender pay gap is 30%, which is higher than the global average of 24%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000296#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Gender scenario employs four clusters of interventions to model development: reducing gaps in labour force participation and wages; improving female representation in politics and decision-making (using the UNDP gender-empowerment measure); reducing education gaps from primary to tertiary levels; and improving reproductive health and rights.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000296#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The model specifically addresses health and social barriers by increasing access to contraception and reducing maternal mortality and child marriage. In sub-Saharan Africa, approximately 25% of women of reproductive age have an unmet need for contraception, the highest proportion globally.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000296#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors argue that gender gaps and economic growth have a reciprocal relationship; while female empowerment benefits development, economic growth provides the necessary fiscal space for governments to invest in the education, healthcare, and infrastructure required to reduce gender inequality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000296#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["gender equality","economic growth"],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario modelling","forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-000305","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000305","title":"AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines a projected shift in Africa's labour market from 2023 to 2043, where a 'Combined scenario' envisions a significant decrease in informal employment from 58% to 40%. This transition is expected to be driven by a resurgence in manufacturing, digital innovation, and targeted investments in infrastructure and skills, leading to improved social protection and government revenue.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000305#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2023, Africa's labour market was characterized by high levels of informality, with over 85% of employment being informal and nearly one-third of employed people earning less than US$2.15 per day.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000305#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Combined scenario' projects that the share of informal employment in Africa will drop from 58% in 2023 to 40% by 2043, which is a more significant improvement than the 53% forecast under the 'Current Path'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000305#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A resurgence in manufacturing—specifically in textiles, assembly, food processing, and agro-processing—is envisioned as a primary driver for poverty reduction and job creation for both rural and urban populations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000305#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Specific national examples illustrate paths to formalization: Ethiopia through industrial parks in textiles and footwear, Nigeria via fintech and creative industries, and Rwanda through ICT, logistics, and tourism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000305#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition toward formal employment is expected to provide workers with legal rights and social protection while enabling governments to increase tax collection and improve public service investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000305#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["industrial manufacturing","social protection","infrastructure"],"geography_discussed":["Ethiopia","Nigeria","Rwanda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario forecasting","economic projection"]},{"id":"issafri-000307","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000307","title":"Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Manufacturing scenario projects a structural economic transformation for Africa by 2043, increasing the manufacturing sector's GDP share to 18.1% and adding US$282.8 billion to the continent's total GDP. This shift is expected to generate 34.6 million additional jobs, primarily unskilled roles in agro-processing and services, while increasing government revenue by US$81.6 billion. The scenario forecasts a reduction in extreme poverty, lifting 19.11 million more people out of poverty by 2043 than the Current Path, and predicts a long-term decrease in income inequality through the expansion of the middle class.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"By 2043, the manufacturing sector's share of GDP is projected to reach 18.1%, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the Current Path. The sector is expected to be US$168.2 billion larger than under the Current Path, totaling approximately US$1.04 trillion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The scenario is expected to create 34.6 million additional jobs by 2043, consisting of approximately 30.94 million unskilled and 3.73 million skilled positions. Unskilled labour demand is most pronounced in agriculture, specifically within the agro-processing sub-sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa's average annual GDP growth would increase from 4.3% to 4.5% under this scenario. By 2043, the total GDP would reach US$6.67 trillion, an increase of US$282.8 billion over the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Government revenue as a share of GDP is projected to be 0.3 percentage points higher by 2043 than the Current Path, representing an additional US$81.6 billion. This is attributed to a larger economy and the formalisation of businesses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The scenario projects an increase in GDP per capita of US$190 for Africa as a whole by 2043. Specific countries are expected to see higher gains, with Botswana leading at US$1,018, followed by Namibia (US$670), Egypt (US$624), Zimbabwe (US$545), and Djibouti (US$525).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Extreme poverty (at US$2.15/day) is expected to be 0.82 percentage points lower by 2043 compared to the Current Path. This would lift 3.8 million additional people out of poverty by 2030 and 19.11 million more by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most significant absolute reductions in poverty headcounts by 2043 are expected in Nigeria (4.45 million), DR Congo (3.44 million), Mozambique (1.79 million), Uganda (813,300), and Niger (782,800).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While income inequality may rise slightly until 2036/2037, the Gini index is expected to improve by 2043. The greatest improvements in inequality are projected for Côte d'Ivoire, Botswana, Benin, and Senegal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000307#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["industrial manufacturing","employment","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Botswana","Namibia","Egypt","Zimbabwe","Djibouti","Sudan","Central African Republic","Chad","Burundi","Somalia","Mozambique","Malawi","Liberia","Nigeria","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Uganda","Niger","Seychelles","Mauritius","Ivory Coast","Benin","Senegal","Ethiopia","Guinea-Bissau","Tanzania"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000310","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000310","title":"AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=14-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document concludes that Africa's current economic path is characterised by low productivity and 'premature deindustrialisation', where labour shifts from subsistence agriculture to low-end informal urban services rather than manufacturing. It highlights a reliance on 'capital-intensive commodity enclaves' that fail to build local value chains or improve broad welfare. To reverse this, the author argues for strategic investments in renewable energy, education, health infrastructure, and digital literacy, alongside the use of the AfCFTA to foster intra-African trade. The text emphasizes that achieving the African Union's Agenda 2063 requires strong governance, gender equity, and international partnerships for financing and technology transfer.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000310#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa is experiencing a non-traditional economic transition where labour moves from rural subsistence agriculture to low-productivity informal urban services, bypassing the manufacturing stage that historically drove well-being in other regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000310#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic growth in commodity-rich African nations is often limited to capital-intensive enclaves, such as gas fields in northern Mozambique, which generate government revenue but fail to create local value chains or widespread employment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000310#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The continent is facing 'premature deindustrialisation' and an increasing reliance on low-value commodity exports, leading to a diversified and burdensome debt load.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000310#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve sustainable development and a demographic dividend, Africa requires strategic investment in renewable energy, health systems, education, and climate resilience, as well as debt relief similar to the 2005 Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000310#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic transformation depends on leveraging regional integration through the AfCFTA to reduce external market reliance and implementing the African Union's Agenda 2063 through governance reforms and gender equity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000310#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","climate change","climate resilience","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["Mozambique","Southeast Asia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic assessment","forecasting","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"issafri-000316","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000316","title":"Changing narratives in and about Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=13-changing-narratives","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report describes a shift in the global and internal perception of Africa, moving from negative stereotypes of poverty and conflict toward a narrative of innovation, cultural richness, and strategic agency. This transformation is driven by the rise of African storytelling, digital platforms, and cultural movements like Afrofuturism. The document argues that these changing narratives enhance Africa's geopolitical leverage in forums like the G20 and BRICS, attract foreign investment, and foster continental integration through initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000316#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The narrative of Africa is shifting from a focus on poverty, conflict, and disease toward a more nuanced portrayal of rich cultures and vibrant economies. This change is driven by African journalists, filmmakers, writers, and artists telling their own stories, as well as the democratising effect of social media and digital platforms that bypass traditional Western media filters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000316#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Cultural movements and economic shifts are redefining Africa's global image. Afrofuturism and Pan-Africanism provide counter-narratives to one-dimensional portrayals, while the emergence of tech hubs in Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa shifts the perception of the continent from one of dependency to one of entrepreneurship and innovation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000316#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The evolving narrative has tangible geopolitical and economic effects, increasing Africa's leverage in international institutions such as the G20 and BRICS. This shift encourages a transition from being viewed as aid recipients to being seen as equal partners, which attracts long-term foreign investment in technology, industry, and infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000316#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Internally, a more empowered self-perception is strengthening continental unity and cooperation. This is exemplified by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which seeks to establish a single market for goods and services across the continent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000316#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","geopolitics"],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Kenya","South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","strategic assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-000319","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000319","title":"Economic size, population and growth rates","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes Africa's economic trajectory, noting that while the absolute size of the economy is growing, its share of global GDP remains stagnant at around 3% despite a rapidly increasing population. It highlights a widening gap in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world, attributing this to a reliance on raw material exports, the 'resource curse', and a slow recovery from COVID-19. By 2043, Nigeria is projected to become the world's third-largest country by population, and the five largest African economies are expected to be Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Africa's absolute economic size is increasing, projected to reach US$6.4 trillion by 2043, but its share of the global economy has remained stagnant at approximately 3% since 1960.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African population is growing significantly faster than its economic output; it rose from 283 million (9% of global population) in 1960 to 1.47 billion (16%) in 2023, and is projected to reach 2.3 billion (25%) by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the 'Current Path', Africa's average economic growth (4.4%) and population growth (2.2%) from 2024 to 2043 will result in a slow per capita income growth of only 1.3%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The gap in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world is widening; Africa's GDP per capita was about half of the global average in 1960, fell to 28% in 2023, and is forecast to decline to 27% by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya are projected to be the five largest economies in Africa by 2043, with Nigeria currently the largest measured by market exchange rates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa's economic structure is heavily dependent on raw material and natural resource exports, which has limited industrial development and made the continent vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations and the 'resource curse'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The impact of COVID-19 was more severe in Africa than elsewhere, with the continent expected to recover to 2019 pre-pandemic income levels only by 2027, compared to 2022 for the rest of the world.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The informal economy varies significantly by country, with Zimbabwe having the highest contribution to GDP at 54% and Seychelles the lowest at less than 9%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000319#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["economic growth","natural resource management","economic diversity","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Egypt","South Africa","Ethiopia","Kenya","Zimbabwe","Tanzania","Seychelles","Democratic Republic of the Congo","United States","Comoros","Cape Verde","São Tomé and Príncipe","South Asia","South America","Botswana","Equatorial Guinea","East Asia","World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic forecasting","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000325","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000325","title":"The AfCFTA Scenario","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. It details the specific interventions used to simulate the agreement's impact—including import tax reductions and productivity increases—and specifies the tariff phase-out timelines for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), non-LDCs, and the G6 countries. The authors characterize the scenario as an optimistic forecast that depends on political commitment and stakeholder engagement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000325#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The AfCFTA scenario is designed to model the agreement's role in increasing international exports and intra-Africa trade to help transform African economies toward producing higher-value services and goods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000325#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To simulate the impact of the AfCFTA using the International Futures (IFs) platform, the model applies four specific interventions at the individual country level: an increase in exports, an export shift based on export promotion, an increase in multifactor productivity, and a reduction in import tax.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000325#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The scenario assumes implementation begins as early as 2026, with tariff reductions following agreed timelines for non-LDCs and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), while the G6 countries—comprising Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—have a longer 15-year phase-out period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000325#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors describe the scenario as an exceptionally optimistic forecast, noting that substantial impact depends on leaders adhering to commitments and involving businesses, labour, and other stakeholders.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000325#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["international trade"],"geography_discussed":["Ethiopia","Madagascar","Malawi","Sudan","Zambia","Zimbabwe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modeling","scenario forecasting"]},{"id":"issafri-000334","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000334","title":"Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes global carbon emissions, noting that 2023 saw record levels of 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent from fossil fuels. It highlights the dominance of a few producers and the significant impact of coal and methane. While China and the EU are pursuing decarbonization, the US experience fluctuates with political administrations. The report forecasts a peak in emissions by 2037/8, but warns that atmospheric CO2 concentrations could reach 551 ppm by 2063, potentially leading to a 3°C temperature rise. Africa is identified as particularly vulnerable, facing increasing emissions from population growth and significant forest loss, with 100 million hectares cleared over three decades.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000334#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached a record 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually by 2023, which is more than five times the levels seen in 1960.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000334#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A small number of entities are responsible for a majority of emissions; over 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 are linked to 36 fossil fuel and cement producers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000334#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report forecasts that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach 551 ppm by 2063 and 569 ppm by 2100 without carbon sequestration breakthroughs, risking a global temperature increase of at least 3°C above pre-industrial levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000334#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is assessed as 33% worse in terms of greenhouse gas emissions over a 20-year period than coal, partly due to methane emissions from shale gas production in the US.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000334#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Current Path' projection suggests fossil fuel emissions will peak at 37.14 billion tons of CO2 equivalent per year in 2037/8 before declining to 2020 levels by 2049.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000334#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa faces severe environmental degradation due to land use changes; 100 million hectares of forest were cleared over the last 30 years, and forests are projected to shrink by 14% between 2023 and 2063.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000334#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India is projected to potentially surpass the United States to become the world's second-largest carbon emitter by mid-century due to its reliance on coal and industrial growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000334#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","fossil fuel","coal","natural gas","methane","liquefied natural gas","shale gas","renewable energy","photovoltaics","wind power","carbon sequestration","deforestation","land-use change","agriculture","water scarcity","Nationally Determined Contributions","carbon price","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","United States","India","European Union","Indonesia","Nigeria","Egypt","Russia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","trend analysis","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-001867","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001867","title":"20 State Futures in the Global South","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a significant disconnect between political participation and governance capacity in some Global South regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, relatively high scores in 'Voice and Accountability' have not led to stronger 'Government Effectiveness' or 'Regulatory Quality', a phenomenon described as 'premature democratisation'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global insecurity is escalating, with state-based conflicts reaching their highest number since 1946. In 2023, 59 state-based conflicts were recorded across 34 countries, with Africa seeing its number of such conflicts nearly double between 2013 and 2023.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Global South is facing a structural threat from a global public debt crisis. In 2023, global public debt reached US$97 trillion; over 40% of the world's population lives in countries where interest payments exceed investments in health or education.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Digital governance is increasingly characterized by a paradox of external dependency and internal repression. While states struggle with the influence of foreign tech platforms, there is a rising trend of state-sponsored internet shutdowns, with 296 shutdowns recorded across 54 countries in 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Inequality acts as a systemic force that undermines institutional legitimacy and social cohesion. This is evident in the 'Growth World' scenario, where states prioritize economic elites and investors, leading to 'exclusion by design' for rural and marginalized communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State legitimacy in the Global South is shifting toward a 'governance as delivery' model, where citizens judge governments by tangible results rather than procedural or ideological norms. This risks creating a 'transactional form of legitimacy' that may sideline democratic accountability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies four potential state archetypes based on global scenarios: the 'dealmaker' (prioritizing growth and investor confidence), the 'system-builder' (focusing on resilience and inclusive reform), the 'fractured state' (characterized by hybrid, contested authority), and the 'collapsed state' (where governance is reduced to coercion).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is a systemic stressor that forces states to balance the 'just energy transition' with economic stability. Many Global South states face a dilemma where abrupt shifts from fossil fuels could destabilize economies and fuel social unrest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","just transition","climate finance","climate change vulnerability","environmental governance","renewable energy","biodiversity loss","critical minerals"],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa","Middle East and North Africa","Latin America and the Caribbean","Central Asia","South Asia","Southeast Asia","East Asia","Global North","People's Republic of China","India","Brazil","Indonesia","Vietnam","Kenya","Rwanda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["horizon scanning","scenario planning","quantitative analysis","comparative study"]},{"id":"issafri-002043","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002043","title":"The Southern Ocean and Antarctica as a strategic imperative for South Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1774420613444-20260324-southernocean-antartica-SAR66.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that South Africa must elevate the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in its strategic planning, as the region is critical for global climate regulation, food security, and maritime safety. While South Africa is the only African state party to the Antarctic Treaty, its diplomatic engagement has been inconsistent. The document highlights rising risks from climate change, such as sea-level rise threatening African coasts, and geopolitical tensions, including Russia's seismic surveying and the blocking of Marine Protected Areas by China and Russia. It suggests South Africa leverage its non-claimant status and role as a logistical gateway to enhance its influence, while warning that its under-resourced navy may struggle with increasing search and rescue demands from growing Antarctic tourism and rerouted shipping traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Southern Ocean is a critical driver of global food security, with nutrients there sustaining between 20% and 75% of global fisheries, representing a value of over R39.1 billion annually.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The region acts as a global climate buffer, absorbing 75% of heat and 40% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, while Antarctic sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming solar radiation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate-driven ice melt in Antarctica poses a severe threat to human security in Africa; by 2030, over 116 million Africans may live in low-lying coastal regions vulnerable to sea-level rise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Shipping traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly due to instability in the Red Sea, with trade volumes almost doubling since 2023, placing additional pressure on South African ports and search and rescue capacities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Antarctic tourism is expanding rapidly, with visitor numbers rising from under 8,000 in 1993-1994 to over 120,000 in 2023-2024, and projections suggest they could exceed 452,000 by the 2033-34 season.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Governance of the region is hindered by the consensus-based decision-making of the ATS and CCAMLR, where China and Russia have repeatedly blocked the establishment of Marine Protected Areas and krill fishing conservation measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is growing concern over the 'strategic accumulation of geological data' by some states, specifically Russia's seismic surveying in the Riiser-Larsen and Weddell Seas, despite prohibitions on mineral extraction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Antarctic Treaty System's historical insulation from global politics is under strain, evidenced by the participation of two consultative parties currently engaged in war (Russia and Ukraine) and the politicisation of bids for consultative status for Canada and Belarus.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa's diplomatic engagement in the region has been characterized by 'consistent inconsistency,' with periods of high activity followed by years of no independent paper submissions to the ATCM, such as in 2023 and 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While South Africa aims to champion the 'African Agenda,' its actual advocacy for broader African participation in the ATS and CCAMLR has been modest and largely absent from recent submissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002043#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","sea level rise","food security","carbon sequestration","blue economy"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Cape Town","Russia","People's Republic of China","India"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["strategic assessment","policy review","geopolitical analysis"]}]}