{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"geography":["Yemen"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":156,"relation":"eq"},"page":6,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?geography=Yemen&page=6","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?geography=Yemen&page=7","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"greeneur-000290","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/greeneur-000290","title":"A narrative to combat and eliminate the terrorist threat","publisher":{"name":"Green European Journal","organization":"green-european-journal"},"document_type":"statement","language":"en","date_published":"2018-07-05","source_url":"https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/a-narrative-to-combat-and-eliminate-the-terrorist-threat/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed"],"summary":{"text":"The author argues that terrorism in Europe is primarily 'home grown' and driven by individuals who feel 'uprooted'. The text criticizes the 'war on terror' approach, stating that disproportionate repression breeds further terrorism and threatens democratic freedoms. It suggests that while intelligence and security measures are necessary to foil immediate plots, the long-term solution lies in mending the 'social fabric' and addressing global instabilities and Western geopolitical abuses that fuel extremist narratives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000290#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The primary objective of terrorist attacks is not the number of casualties, but rather to create shock and polarize society by targeting the 'grey zone' of citizens who have not yet taken a side in the conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000290#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Modern terrorism in Western Europe is largely 'home grown', with the majority of attacks perpetrated by European citizens, meaning the threat cannot be solved through borders, deportation, or exclusion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000290#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Military responses to terrorism can be counterproductive in the long term because blind and disproportionate repression can validate terrorist claims of self-defence and attract more attacks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000290#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Radicalisation is described as a search for answers by individuals who feel 'uprooted', driven by a combination of social, economic, ideological, and psychological factors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000290#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Salafism is identified as a simplified, globalised version of Islam that can encourage violent extremism through its uncompromising rejection of Western modernity and democratic values.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000290#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author argues that the 'global war on terror' under US leadership has led to counterproductive military interventions, high civilian casualties, and the compromise of basic human rights in EU countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000290#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Long-term prevention of terrorism requires 'mending the cracks' of society, which include loose social fabric, lack of education, failed media, and weakened leadership.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000290#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Barcelona","Marseille","France","Liège","London","Paris","Berlin","Manchester","Nice","Munich","Syria","Yemen","Iraq","Northern Ireland","Belgium","Italy","Germany"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"prio-001340","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001340","title":"CONFLICT TRENDS 2017","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018-05","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1dce3b35-6fa7-43d9-aaa8-d4efe4bcbd36/Dupuy Rustad- Trends in Armed Conflict 1946-2017 Conflict Trends 5-2018.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that while the number of state-based armed conflicts and total casualties declined in 2017, non-state conflicts increased significantly. Syria remained the deadliest conflict, and the Islamic State (IS) was involved in 31% of all conflicts. The authors note a long-term general decline in warfare since the 1950s, though they warn that internationalized intrastate conflicts and religious extremism continue to pose major threats to global peace.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001340#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"State-based armed conflicts decreased slightly from 53 in 2016 to 49 in 2017, with 34 countries experiencing conflict in their territories. Only one conflict was a dispute between two countries: India and Pakistan over Kashmir.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001340#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conflict casualties saw a significant decline in 2017, with nearly 69,000 people killed as a direct consequence of state-based armed conflicts. This is a 22% decrease from 2016 and a 32% decrease from 2014, primarily driven by reduced violence in Syria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001340#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Syria remained the deadliest conflict globally in 2017, accounting for 29% of the world's conflict-related deaths, although this was the lowest fatality count for the country since 2011.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001340#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Non-state conflicts increased dramatically from 62 in 2016 to 82 in 2017, with deaths rising from nearly 10,000 to 13,662. The most lethal non-state conflicts occurred in Syria and the Central African Republic.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001340#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Islamic State (IS) was a central driver of conflict in 2017, involved in 16 conflicts (31% of the total) across 15 countries. IS was also responsible for approximately 35% of all one-sided violence deaths in 2017.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001340#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Intrastate conflicts are increasingly internationalized; in 2017, external states contributed troops to 19 of the 48 intrastate conflicts (40%). The United States was the most involved country, with troops in seven such conflicts involving Islamist extremist groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001340#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Long-term trends since 1946 show a decline in colonial and interstate conflicts, with internal state conflicts becoming predominant. While there have been recent up-surges, the general pattern of battle casualties since the 1950s is one of decline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001340#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Syria","Iraq","Afghanistan","India","Pakistan","Central African Republic","United States","Mali","Libya","Somalia","Chad","Lebanon","Iran","Jordan","Cameroon","Tunisia","Bangladesh","Philippines","Mexico","Brazil","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Ukraine","Yemen","Myanmar","Venezuela","Middle East","Africa","Sahel region of Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["statistical analysis","trend analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001626","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001626","title":"Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2017","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2018","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6edb427a-12f5-40f6-a5e8-70f31712b033/Ostby Rustad Tollefsen et al- Children Affected by Armed Conflict 1990-2017 Conflict Trends 10-2018.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed"],"summary":{"text":"The document provides a mapping of children living in conflict settings, distinguishing between those in conflict-affected countries and those in 'conflict zones' (within 50km of fighting). In 2017, approximately 1.8 billion children lived in conflict-affected countries, while 420 million lived in conflict zones. Asia has the highest absolute number of affected children, but the Middle East has the highest proportion relative to its population. The report also notes a rise in the number of children in conflict zones since 2000 and discusses the severe impact of the denial of humanitarian access, particularly in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, and the Central African Republic.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001626#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Approximately 420 million children (more than 1 in 6) lived in 'conflict zones' in 2017, defined as being within a 50km radius of a conflict event. This represents a 7% increase from 2016, when the figure was 393 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001626#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Asia is the region with the highest absolute number of children in conflict zones (195 million), while the Middle East has the highest relative share, with approximately 40% of its children living in such zones.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001626#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Six countries account for more than half of all children living in conflict zones in 2017: India (over 56 million), Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Bangladesh, and the Philippines.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001626#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of children living in conflict zones has risen by more than 50% since the early-to-mid 1990s, when the figure was around 200 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001626#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In 2017, 33.7% of children in conflict zones lived in high-intensity zones (conflicts with over 1,000 battle-related deaths per year), a decrease from 46.8% in 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001626#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The United Nations verified 1,432 incidents of denial of humanitarian access (DHA) to children in 2017. South Sudan had the most incidents (783), followed by Yemen (248), Syria (107), and the Central African Republic (101).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001626#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Asia","Middle East","Africa","Americas","Europe","India","Pakistan","Nigeria","Egypt","Bangladesh","Philippines","People's Republic of China","Indonesia","South Sudan","Yemen","Syria","Central African Republic","Myanmar","Gaza Strip"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"sgr-000075","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sgr-000075","title":"Joint statement","publisher":{"name":"Scientists for Global Responsibility","organization":"scientists-for-global-responsibility"},"document_type":"statement","language":"en","date_published":"2017-09-25","source_url":"https://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/new-scientist-live-sponsored-arms-and-fossil-fuel-corporations","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Scientists for Global Responsibility and other campaign organisations condemn the sponsorship of 'New Scientist Live' by Shell and BAE Systems, arguing that such partnerships provide unethical companies with unmerited social legitimacy and allow them to deflect from their environmental and human rights impacts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sgr-000075#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The sponsorship of 'New Scientist Live' by Shell and BAE Systems is viewed as a means for these companies to 'clean-up their brands' and gain social legitimacy by associating with the reputation of science and high-profile figures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sgr-000075#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Shell's sponsorship of the 'Earth Zone' is highlighted as ironic because the company continues to explore for new oil and gas sources despite the need to limit fossil fuel combustion to prevent climate change, and has previously funded efforts to undermine climate science.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sgr-000075#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"BAE Systems' sponsorship of the 'Engineering Zone' is criticised given the company's role in selling weapons to repressive regimes and its involvement in the bombardment of Yemen by Saudi Arabia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sgr-000075#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel industry","obsidian","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["London","Saudi Arabia","Yemen"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy critique","advocacy"]},{"id":"prio-001221","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001221","title":"ATT MONITOR REPORT 2017","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2017-09-11","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4e9e3fc9-bff2-463c-ab66-4edcfe4e742d/ATT Monitor 2017.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The ATT Monitor 2017 report finds that while the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) has seen steady universalization, progress in public reporting is disappointing in both quantity and quality. Analysis of 2015 Annual Reports reveals significant discrepancies between reported exports and imports, with only 6% of analyzed small arms and light weapons (SALW) transactions being exactly mirrored. The report highlights a critical gap between reported implementation measures in Initial Reports and actual practice on the ground. It also introduces the 'Risk Watch' tool, which uses a typology of individual, group, institutional, and conflict violence to identify contexts where arms transfers may fuel human rights abuses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"As of 31 May 2017, 92 countries were States Parties to the ATT, representing 48 per cent of all UN member states, though the pace of new membership slowed by more than 50 per cent compared to the previous year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The ATT Voluntary Trust Fund (VTF), established by CSP 2016 to support national implementation, had received approximately US$1.6 million in contributions and US$370,139 in pledges by the end of May 2017.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Compliance with mandatory reporting is low; by 31 May 2017, only 58 of 82 required Initial Reports (72%) had been received, and only 31 of 75 expected Annual Reports (41%) were submitted by 7 June 2017.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A cross-check of 435 SALW transactions from 17 major exporting States Parties showed that only 6% were exactly mirrored by the importing state, and 78% of reported exports had no corresponding import of a similar weapon type.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Significant reporting discrepancies were noted between Poland and the Czech Republic; Poland reported exporting 12,210 units of various SALW to the Czech Republic, but the Czech Republic reported no SALW imports from Poland.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Some States Parties reported 'nil' imports while other countries reported exporting arms to them; for example, Ireland reported nil imports, but Belgium, Germany, Sweden, and the UK reported exports to Ireland.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies a 'critical gap' between the implementation measures described in Initial Reports and actual practices on the ground, noting that some states signal an intent to act rather than existing practice.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regarding export controls, 89% of reporting States Parties indicate their national control system covers all eight categories of conventional arms under Article 2.1, but 7% claim their system lacks risk assessment processes because they are not arms-exporting states.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Risk Watch' tool uses a typology of four violence categories—Individual, Group, Institutional, and Conflict—to identify contexts of concern for arms misuse, drawing on sources like the Global Terrorism Index and the Political Terror Scale.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that transparency is essential for preventing the diversion of arms, noting that diversion often occurs due to weak governmental structures and lack of accountability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001221#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Yemen","United Kingdom","Saudi Arabia","South Sudan","Poland","Czech Republic"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["compliance assessment","quantitative analysis","qualitative analysis","policy review"]},{"id":"saiia-001642","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-001642","title":"A REGIONAL POWER IN THE MAKING: ETHIOPIAN DIPLOMACY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2017-06","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Occasional-Paper-261.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper analyzes the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) of Ethiopia, which prioritizes domestic security and development over external concerns. While this approach has supported economic growth and regional mediation roles, the author argues it has led to strategic vulnerabilities, including a failure to secure sea access and an underestimation of threats from Eritrea and Egypt. The document recommends a more proactive, opportunity-based diplomatic approach to enhance regional trade and security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Ethiopia's foreign policy is governed by the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) launched in 2002, which explicitly prioritizes domestic security and development over external threats.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'inward-looking' nature of Ethiopia's diplomacy has resulted in missed economic opportunities, particularly in South Sudan, where Ethiopian businesses have been outperformed by competitors from Kenya, Uganda, and Eritrea.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia's focus on internal threats led to a lack of military readiness that contributed to the 1998 border war with Eritrea, as the country had no army brigade positioned along the 912km frontier prior to the invasion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia maintains a significant military presence in regional peace operations, ranking first in sub-Saharan Africa for troop strength and equipment, and providing the entirety of the 4,250 troops for UNISFA.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $5 billion project, represents a shift in Nile River hydro-politics, challenging Egypt's historical claims to 55.5 billion m3 of annual water quota.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia's diplomatic resource allocation is inconsistent with its stated priorities; it deploys fewer diplomats per mission in the IGAD region than its global average, despite the region's strategic importance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Internal political instability, specifically protests in the Amhara and Oromia regions in 2015/2016, threatens Ethiopia's diplomatic standing and the sustainability of its developmental state model.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Recent geopolitical shifts, including the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and EU migration deals, have eroded Ethiopia's previous success in diplomatically isolating Eritrea.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001642#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate diplomacy","hydroelectricity","water security"],"geography_discussed":["Djibouti","Eritrea","Kenya","Somalia","South Sudan","Sudan","Uganda","Egypt","Yemen"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","geopolitical assessment"]},{"id":"iisd-002374","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002374","title":"IISD Speech: President and CEO Scott Vaughan at the UN Economic and Social Council, 2017 Integrated Segment, New York","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"statement","language":"en","date_published":"2017-05-08","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/iisd-speech-president-and-ceo-scott-vaughan-un-economic-and-social-council","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Scott Vaughan argues that ending hunger and extreme poverty is essential for achieving the SDGs, requiring an additional USD 11 billion in annual public spending until 2030. He emphasizes the need for improved irrigation efficiency, climate-resilient agriculture, and the reform of trade and investment policies to protect global food security from climate risks and protectionism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002374#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Ending hunger (SDG 2) by 2030 requires an additional USD 11 billion in annual public spending, with USD 4 billion coming from donors and the remainder from countries themselves, representing a 3 per cent increase in current Official Development Assistance (ODA) levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002374#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To address hunger and malnutrition, five priority areas of action are identified: social safety nets (cash transfers and food stamps), on-farm support, rural development planning and infrastructure, nutrition support, and the reform of laws, policies, and institutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002374#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global food security is threatened by the depletion of major breadbaskets—specifically the high-plain aquifers in the Midwest United States, India–Pakistan, and the north China plain—and a 40 per cent decline in irrigation efficiency in many countries over the last decade.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002374#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change adaptation in agriculture is being led by countries such as Jamaica, Uganda, and Vietnam through national plans, the use of climate-resilient seeds, and a shift toward less water-intensive crops.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002374#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global progress on the SDGs is threatened by increased protectionism in trade and investment policy, necessitating a rules-based system and national legal frameworks that support sustainable agricultural trade.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002374#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food security","climate change adaptation","climate finance","carbon sink","Sustainable Development Goals","poverty reduction","water management"],"geography_discussed":["Yemen","Nigeria","United States","India","Pakistan","People's Republic of China","Jamaica","Uganda","Vietnam"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","financial estimation"]},{"id":"prio-001476","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001476","title":"Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2017-04-12","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1cf75cd2-ca20-4ee7-b003-11e27eb87cc9/Inequality and Conflict Full Report.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that while vertical economic inequality is at an all-time high globally, horizontal inequality (inequality between groups) has declined significantly over the last 30 years. It finds that horizontal inequalities—particularly economic and political disparities affecting deprived groups—are stronger predictors of armed conflict than vertical inequalities. The authors emphasize that perceived inequality often diverges from objective data and is a critical driver of violence. While political institutional reforms and territorial autonomy show some success in preventing or ending conflict, economic policies have a mixed record. The report concludes with a call for better data on perceptions and a more rigorous analysis of policy outcomes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global vertical economic inequality is currently at its highest level since reliable cross-nationally comparable data became available, with the trend being most pronounced in the world's largest countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Horizontal inequality in infant mortality has declined steadily since approximately 1985, reaching all-time lows and contradicting the theory that such inequalities are too 'sticky' to be addressed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Horizontal inequalities—defined as disparities in economic, political, social, or cultural status between culturally defined groups—are more strongly associated with armed conflict than vertical inequalities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The relationship between objective horizontal inequality and conflict is often mediated by perceptions; however, objective and perceived inequalities frequently do not overlap.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Perceptions of unfair government treatment are more strongly linked to conflict-related behavior and attitudes than direct measures of material inequality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Political exclusion of ethnic groups from executive power is a significant driver of civil conflict, and this effect is often stronger for groups whose territories contain oil deposits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Nigeria, significant horizontal inequalities persist across religious, regional, and ethnic lines, with the North lagging behind the South in education and wealth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Uganda exhibits deep regional inequalities between the North and South, which have historically fueled conflicts such as those involving the Lords Resistance Army (LRA).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Tanzania has remained relatively peaceful due to a history of African socialism that promoted national unity and reduced ethnic and religious polarization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Philippines, substantial regional inequalities in development and health, particularly in the southern Mindanao region, have been exploited by rebel groups to mobilize recruits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Political institutional measures, territorial decentralization, and cultural recognition are evidenced to help avert the onset of conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Post-conflict territorial autonomy and military power-sharing tend to reduce the risk of conflict recurrence, whereas wealth-sharing policies show no such evidence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Peace agreements that include civil society organizations are significantly more durable, with the risk of failure reduced by as much as 64%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-13","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Post-conflict economic policies, particularly those based on neoliberal privatization, often have a mixed or negative record, sometimes worsening group inequalities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001476#insight-14","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Uganda","Tanzania","Yemen","Philippines","Indonesia","Nepal","India","Ghana","Ivory Coast"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["literature review","data mapping","case study","policy evaluation"]},{"id":"prio-001220","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001220","title":"ATT MONITOR REPORT 2016","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016-08-22","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/abd30163-51fe-4fec-91a5-77a54959d945/ATT Monitor 2016.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The ATT Monitor 2016 report reviews the first year of the Arms Trade Treaty as international law, noting a rise in membership to 82 States Parties as of June 1, 2016. It highlights a significant gap between procedural progress and substantive compliance, particularly regarding arms transfers to conflict zones like Yemen. The report provides a detailed analysis of African states' engagement, the development of a 'Risk Watch' tool to monitor weapon misuse, and an evaluation of the first tranche of Initial and Annual Transfer Reports, noting inconsistent reporting rates and a lack of transparency in several regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Between May 31, 2015, and May 31, 2016, the ATT saw 14 ratifications and two accessions, bringing the total to 82 States Parties and 52 Signatories as of June 1, 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Universalization of the treaty is geographically uneven; while membership is high in Western Europe (24 of 27 countries), it remains low in Asia (5 of 56) and Africa (19 of 54).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite treaty obligations, nine States Parties (France, Germany, Italy, Montenegro, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK) and two Signatories (Turkey and the US) completed arms sales to Saudi Arabia in 2015 totaling over US$25 billion, despite evidence of IHL and IHRL violations in Yemen.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African countries' imports of major conventional weapons increased by 19 per cent between the 2006\u00102010 and 2011\u00102015 periods, with the continent's share of the global arms trade rising to 8 per cent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transparency in Africa is very low; 93 per cent of African states failed to submit any report to the UN Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA) between 2010 and 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies a 'grey-market' in Africa where officially authorized transfers are diverted to unauthorized end-users or used illegally, often due to poor stockpile management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The ATT Monitor developed the 'Risk Watch' tool to synthesize public expert data on weapon misuse, focusing on indicators such as attacks on civilian objects, education facilities, and medical personnel to guide State Parties' risk assessments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Of the 63 States Parties expected to submit Initial Reports by May 31, 2016, 47 (75 per cent) did so, with 44 making them public.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Annual Transfer Report compliance was lower than Initial Report compliance, with only 32 of 63 expected reports (50 per cent) submitted on time by May 31, 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report clarifies that armed drones are covered by the ATT because the UNROCA definition of combat aircraft does not require the aircraft to be 'manned'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Shotguns are considered within the scope of the ATT under the general definition of small arms and light weapons as 'man-portable lethal weapon[s]'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report notes that the term 'overriding risk' in Article 7 is not an established concept in international law and is subject to varying interpretations by States Parties, such as New Zealand's use of 'substantial risk'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001220#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Yemen","Saudi Arabia","Central African Republic","Iraq","South Sudan","Geneva"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["compliance monitoring","policy assessment","risk analysis","geographic case study"]},{"id":"issafri-000734","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000734","title":"In their words: Communication for development","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"case study","language":"en","date_published":"2016-01-05","source_url":"https://issafrica.org/impact/in-their-words-communication-for-development","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed"],"summary":{"text":"The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) helped MTN develop the Situational Awareness and Integrated Response (SAIR) system, an open-source informatics tool used to gather intelligence and manage security in volatile markets across Africa and the Middle East.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000734#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The ISS assisted MTN in creating the Situational Awareness and Integrated Response (SAIR) system, which utilizes open-source informatics and software to facilitate intelligence gathering, information flow, and reputation management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000734#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The SAIR system allows MTN to collect and analyze data from various media and social media platforms to evaluate regulatory environments and inform decision-makers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000734#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"MTN utilizes the ISS's expertise in forecasting socio-economic, security, and development indices to navigate challenges and opportunities in its markets, which include volatile states such as Nigeria, Liberia, Congo-Brazzaville, South Sudan, Côte D’Ivoire, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Iran.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000734#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Liberia","Republic of the Congo","South Sudan","Ivory Coast","Afghanistan","Syria","Yemen","Iran"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"prio-001405","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001405","title":"CONFLICT TRENDS 01","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016","source_url":"https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C3%A5rd,%20Strand,%20Urdal%20-%20Trends%20in%20Armed%20Conflict,%20Conflict%20Trends%201-2016.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes armed conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) statistics, noting a recent upsurge in both the number of conflicts and battle casualties in 2014. While long-term trends since the 1950s show a decline in warfare deaths and a shift from interstate to internal conflicts, 2014 saw 40 conflicts and over 100,000 deaths. The authors attribute the recent rise to nationalism and religious extremism, while predicting that long-term democratization and development will eventually lead to the waning of war.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001405#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2014, there was a significant increase in both the prevalence and severity of armed conflict, with the total number of conflicts reaching 40, the highest since 1999. The number of 'wars' (defined as conflicts with over 1,000 battle deaths) rose from 6 in 2013 to 11 in 2014.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001405#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Battle casualties reached a 25-year high in 2014, exceeding 100,000 deaths. A small number of high-intensity wars drove this figure, as the 11 wars identified in 2014 were responsible for 95% of all battle deaths, while 29 minor conflicts accounted for only 5%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001405#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Long-term conflict patterns since 1946 show a decline in colonial and interstate conflicts, which once made up half of all armed conflicts. The dominant form of conflict is now internal to a state, though these often involve external state actors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001405#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors identify nationalism and religious extremism as the primary drivers behind the recent increase in conflicts and casualties since 2013. However, they argue that in the long term, democratization and development will continue to cause the waning of war.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001405#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Several ongoing wars are expected to continue due to factors such as the number of actors, relative strength of belligerents, porous borders, and foreign intervention. Specifically, the report expects wars in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Ukraine, and Yemen to persist.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001405#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Syria","Iraq","Afghanistan","Pakistan","Ukraine","Yemen","Colombia","Philippines","Nigeria","South Sudan","Somalia","Israel","Palestine","Democratic Republic of the Congo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"wri-001846","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-001846","title":"Water-Energy Nexus: Business Risks and Rewards","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016","source_url":"https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Water-Energy_Nexus_Business_Risks_and_Rewards.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the 'water-energy nexus,' where water scarcity threatens energy production and energy costs impact water provision. It analyzes three case studies: the Middle East and North Africa's reliance on energy-intensive desalination, China's coal-fired power plants facing high water stress, and the United States' water-intensive hydraulic fracturing for shale gas. The document argues that companies can mitigate these risks by shifting from expanding supply to reducing demand, scaling alternative water sources like reclaimed wastewater and brackish water, and adopting clean energy resources such as solar and wind.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), extreme water scarcity is driving a heavy reliance on desalination, with some countries diverting significant energy resources to meet water needs. For example, Saudi Arabia uses 25 percent of its oil and gas production for desalination electricity, and Kuwait's energy use for desalination cogeneration is projected to equal its current fuel oil production by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Desalination in MENA is highly carbon-intensive and costly. Under a business-as-usual scenario, plants needed to produce 90 billion cubic meters of water by 2050 are estimated to emit 270–360 megatons of CO2 annually. Financially, desalination is significantly more expensive than water conservation, costing approximately $1.30 per cubic meter compared to $0.02 for improving agricultural practices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China's electric power sector faces substantial water risks, as nearly 60 percent of its coal-fired power generation is located in regions with high or extremely high water stress. Projections indicate that climate change will intensify water stress in drier provinces by 40–70 percent over current levels by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To reduce water reliance, China is implementing policies to phase out inefficient small coal plants and promote dry-cooling technologies, which use 70-80 percent less water than closed-loop cooling. Additionally, the country is increasing the use of reclaimed municipal wastewater, with a goal to reuse 20 percent of it by 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the United States, 60 percent of shale gas plays are projected to be in regions with arid conditions or high/extremely high water stress by 2020. While hydraulic fracturing accounts for only one one-thousandth of total U.S. water withdrawals, these are highly localized and can represent up to one third of total freshwater use in some counties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"U.S. unconventional oil and gas developers face economic and regulatory risks from water stress, including high withdrawal costs—such as Colorado municipalities charging $1,000–$2,000 per acre-foot during a 2012 drought—and liabilities from produced water disposal, such as seismic activity risks associated with deep-well injection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Alternative water sources for the energy sector include brackish water and recycled wastewater. In the Permian Basin of Texas, brackish water accounted for 80 percent of total water used for fracturing in 2011. In the Marcellus Shale, repurposed water meets 10 to 30 percent of fracturing requirements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests that companies can mitigate long-term risks by adopting internal financial tools such as pricing carbon and valuing water. Over 1,000 companies already report pricing carbon internally to prepare for regulatory changes or market shifts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001846#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hydraulic fracturing","shale gas","carbon price","photovoltaics","greenhouse gas emissions","energy efficiency","gender mainstreaming"],"geography_discussed":["Saudi Arabia","Kuwait","Yemen","Kenya","Qingdao","Xiangyang","United Kingdom"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["risk assessment","case study","policy analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001240","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001240","title":"Beyond Definitions","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2015-11","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d9765239-90d9-4a00-85af-68938d4c4a0f/Beyond Definitions Global migration and the smuggling-trafficking nexus.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper argues that the legal distinction between migrant smuggling (facilitating illegal movement for profit) and human trafficking (exploitation) is increasingly blurred in practice, as smugglers often transition into traffickers. It contends that restrictive border controls do not stop migration but instead make smuggling the 'new normal,' increasing migrant vulnerability and profitability for criminal networks. The authors highlight that most irregular migrants successfully reach their destinations despite high risks, and that state efforts to 'demonize' smugglers often serve as political cover for the failure of the global asylum regime.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001240#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The legal distinction between migrant smuggling and human trafficking is often inapplicable in reality because smugglers frequently adopt the role of traffickers, using clients for extortion, forced labor, or sexual enslavement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001240#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Restrictive migration regimes and strengthened border controls have made the use of paid facilitators indispensable, effectively making smuggling the standard method for large migration flows.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001240#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite the high visibility of migrant deaths, the majority of individuals attempting irregular migration successfully reach their destinations, leading migrants to view the risk as a rational gamble against the benefits of security and prosperity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001240#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"States may strategically conflate smuggling and trafficking to justify military action or to project an image of protecting refugees while avoiding the legal obligations associated with identifying and assisting victims of trafficking.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001240#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The global asylum regime is under threat as mixed migration flows—combining refugees and economic migrants—challenge the ability of developed nations to distinguish between those needing protection and those moving for economic reasons.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001240#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Aggressive anti-smuggling prosecutions can inadvertently increase migrant vulnerability by pushing smugglers to use more dangerous methods, such as abandoning migrants at sea or forcing them to navigate vessels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001240#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","environmental degradation","human rights"],"geography_discussed":["Europe","Australia","United States","Mediterranean Sea","Syria","Iraq","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Central African Republic","South Sudan","Afghanistan","Colombia","Mexico","Myanmar","Indonesia","Malaysia","Thailand","Egypt","Sudan","Yemen","Saudi Arabia","Denmark","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","legal analysis","socio-economic analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-002708","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002708","title":"PEACE AND SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2015-06","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSCNo70.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report outlines the priorities for the June 2015 AU summit, noting that the official theme of women's empowerment is likely to be overshadowed by urgent crises. Key concerns include the high death toll of African migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Libya, xenophobic violence in South Africa, and the instability in Burundi caused by President Pierre Nkurunziza's third-term bid. It also examines the AU's role in mediating conflicts in South Sudan and Libya, the challenges of establishing an African Standby Force, and the broader struggle for continental economic and political integration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002708#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 25th AU Assembly in Johannesburg is expected to prioritize urgent security issues over its official theme of the 'Year of Women’s Empowerment and Development towards Africa’s Agenda 2063', specifically focusing on xenophobia in South Africa, migration, and terrorism in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and Nigeria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002708#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African migration to Europe via the Mediterranean has seen a dramatic increase in fatalities, with nearly 2,000 deaths since the start of 2015, including close to 1,400 deaths in April 2015 alone.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002708#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Political instability in Burundi is driven by President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third term, which contradicts the Arusha peace agreement and the general interpretation of the constitution. Despite proactive diplomacy and visits from AU officials, violent protests and a failed coup attempt on 14 May have occurred.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002708#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AU faces a systemic challenge with incumbents attempting to extend presidential term limits in several countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Congo, and Rwanda. Efforts to create a binding statutory agreement to limit terms to two mandates are hindered by the AU's consensus-based decision-making and opposition from leaders in The Gambia and Togo.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002708#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AU is coordinating with the International Contact Group on Libya to address the country's chaotic state, characterized by two competing governments and numerous armed militias.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002708#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Continental economic integration remains slow due to national political indifference, though the AU is pursuing the 'open skies' initiative to deregulate air services and regional economic communities like the East African Community are moving toward free trade zones.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002708#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The AU is working toward the operationalization of the African Standby Force (ASF), with the Amani II field exercise in South Africa serving as a critical step toward making the force operative.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002708#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate migration","human rights"],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","Burundi","Libya","South Sudan","Nigeria","Mali","Somalia","Kenya","Burkina Faso","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Republic of the Congo","Rwanda","The Gambia","Togo","Niger","Yemen"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","situation analysis"]},{"id":"greeneur-000214","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/greeneur-000214","title":"Pacifisme, non-violence et droit international : les partis verts et le recours à la force","publisher":{"name":"Green European Journal","organization":"green-european-journal"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"fr","date_published":"2015-03-01","source_url":"https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/pacifisme-non-violence-et-droit-international-les-partis-verts-et-le-recours-a-la-force/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the ideological shift within European Green parties regarding the use of force, moving from 1980s antimilitarism and anti-nuclear activism toward a complex debate between strict pacifism and humanitarian interventionism based on international law.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000214#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"During the 1980s, Green parties focused on antimilitarism and opposition to military nuclear weapons, with German Greens linking this to opposition to civil nuclear power and Belgian Greens calling for the simultaneous dissolution of NATO and the Warsaw Pact in 1983.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000214#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Following the collapse of the Soviet bloc, a divide emerged between anti-imperialist pacifists opposing NATO and US operations and those supporting humanitarian interventions framed by UN resolutions and international law.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000214#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The French Greens shifted from militant antimilitarism toward international relations realism, supporting military intervention when there is a 'danger for the people', while the German Greens' Bündnis 90/Die Grünen recognized in 2003 that state violence legitimized by international law cannot always be excluded.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000214#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2011 intervention in Libya, supported by Green parties as a 'right of interference' to prevent mass crimes, resulted in a trauma that led to resentment from the BRICS nations and pacifist associations, who accused the West of exceeding the UN mandate.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000214#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author argues that Green parties currently lack a modern understanding of the international system, failing to account for the privatization of violence, environmental causes of war, and the need for a 'non-harm' policy rather than a 'lesser evil' approach.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000214#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["international law"],"geography_discussed":["Libya","Kosovo","Syria","Mali","Central African Republic","Iraq","Ukraine","Israel","Palestine","Bahrain","Yemen","Brazil","Russia","India","People's Republic of China","South Africa","Europe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["historical analysis","ideological critique"]},{"id":"saiia-000937","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-000937","title":"R2P and the Protection of Civilians: South Africa’s Perspective on Conflict Resolution","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2015-03","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Policy-Briefing-133.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines South Africa's complex relationship with the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) framework, noting a tension between its commitment to protecting civilians and its skepticism toward military interventions that may serve as pretexts for regime change. While South Africa helped integrate R2P principles into the African Union's Constitutive Act, its actions as a UN Security Council member—particularly regarding Libya—have led to perceptions of inconsistency. The author argues that South Africa prefers a moderate approach centered on dialogue and regional solutions, constrained by limited domestic resources and a strategic desire to avoid endorsing interventions that could be applied selectively in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000937#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa does not have a clearly defined official policy on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), meaning its position must be inferred from its recent actions and diplomatic conduct.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000937#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa was a key driver in shifting the African Union's approach from non-interference to 'non-indifference,' contributing to the inclusion of Article 4(h) in the AU's Constitutive Act, which allows intervention in cases of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000937#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The South African government favors a moderate implementation of R2P that prioritizes conflict prevention, mediation, and dialogue over military force, drawing on its own history of a peaceful negotiated transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000937#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa strongly opposes the 'militarisation' of R2P, specifically when the use of force is used as a cover for regime change, a concern highlighted by its reaction to the NATO intervention in Libya following Resolution 1973.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000937#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While South Africa has voted in favor of UNSC resolutions invoking R2P for countries such as Sudan, Côte d’Ivoire, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, these votes were limited to the first and second pillars of R2P and did not sanction the use of force (pillar three).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000937#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa's skepticism toward R2P is distinct from the positions of Russia and China; while the latter emphasize absolute sovereignty, South Africa's critique is more procedural, focusing on the selective application of norms and Western double standards in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000937#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Pragmatic constraints, including a lack of military capacity and a prioritization of domestic developmental goals, limit South Africa's ability and willingness to enforce R2P operations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000937#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Libya","Zimbabwe","Myanmar","Central African Republic","Darfur","Burundi","Sudan","Ivory Coast","Guinea-Bissau","Yemen","Democratic Republic of the Congo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":[]},{"id":"saiia-001758","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-001758","title":"Ethiopia’s Regional Diplomacies: A Dominant Interpretation of the Horn of Africa","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2014-10","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Policy-Briefing-112.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines Ethiopia's foreign policy under the EPRDF-led government, specifically the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS). It highlights Ethiopia's dominant role in regional peace and security, particularly through IGAD and UN/AU peacekeeping missions, while critiquing the mismatch between this strategic prominence and the allocation of diplomatic and financial resources. The author argues that Ethiopia's focus on internal stability and security has led to a 'sluggish' approach to economic diplomacy and regional integration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001758#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Ethiopia's current foreign policy, guided by the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS), is characterized as being 'inward-looking' and treats foreign policy as 'subservient to Ethiopia’s internal policies', which prioritize stability, democratic governance, and economic development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001758#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant discrepancy between Ethiopia's strategic influence in the IGAD region and its resource allocation; only 11.5% of its diplomats abroad are stationed in IGAD member states, and the number of diplomats per mission is slightly lower than the global average.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001758#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia is the world's largest troop-contributing nation, with 12,247 troops in AU missions (including 4,395 in AMISOM) and 7,852 in UN missions, reflecting its central role in regional peace and security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001758#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia has leveraged its military strength and experience in counter-terrorism and mediation to become a key partner for Western and Eastern powers, particularly through its leadership in IGAD and its role in mediating conflicts in South Sudan and Sudan.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001758#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document identifies a failure to fully capitalize on economic opportunities, noting that Ethiopia's regional diplomacy is 'sluggish' in pursuing trade and that its foreign policy has been 'detrimental and excessively inward-looking' regarding economic activities in the IGAD region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001758#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethiopia is attempting to shift toward regional integration by developing internal infrastructure and exporting hydroelectric power and water concessions to its neighbors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001758#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hydroelectricity"],"geography_discussed":["Djibouti","Eritrea","Kenya","Somalia","South Sudan","Sudan","Egypt","Yemen","Nigeria","Darfur","Abyei"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","diplomatic assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-002100","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002100","title":"Parched prospects: The emerging water crisis in South Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2014-09","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF11_15Sep2014.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"South Africa is over-exploiting its freshwater resources, with a projected widening gap between supply and demand by 2035. The authors find that the National Water Resource Strategy 2013 (NWRS2) lacks the aggressive measures needed to close this gap, which is driven by urban migration, industrial growth, and agricultural expansion. Proposed solutions include significant reductions in municipal non-revenue water, increased wastewater reuse, and expanded groundwater extraction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa is currently over-exploiting its renewable water resources on a national level, with an estimated annual withdrawal of 15.6 km3 against an exploitable surface-water yield of 10.24 km3 (at 98% assurance of supply).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water demand is distributed across three main sectors: agriculture is the largest consumer at 57% (8.9 km3), followed by municipal demand at 35% (5.5 km3), and the industrial sector at 8% (1.2 km3).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors' base case forecast indicates that the gap between water demand and supply will increase to over 3.5 km3 by 2030, only reducing slightly to 3.2 km3 by 2035 due to a projected drop in coal production and growth in renewable energy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Municipal water losses are significant, with a 2012 study finding that 36.8% of municipal water is lost through physical leakages or commercial losses, which the authors refer to as non-revenue water.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The National Development Plan 2030's goal to increase irrigated land by 33% is identified as a likely driver of increased agricultural water demand, contradicting assumptions in the NWRS2 that agricultural allocations would remain static.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Mandela Magic' high-growth economic scenario would exacerbate the water crisis, increasing the 2035 demand-supply gap from 3.23 km3 in the base case to 3.77 km3.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To close the demand-supply gap, the authors propose a 'close the gap' scenario requiring aggressive targets, including reducing municipal demand to 5.74 km3 by 2035 and increasing treated wastewater reuse so that 80% of municipal wastewater is treated.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is expected to further diminish water availability, with the IFs model projecting an average decline in rainfall for South Africa of 1.9% up to 2030 and 2.1% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water quality, specifically acid mine drainage in the Witwatersrand goldfields and Mpumalanga coalfields, poses a severe risk to the water supply and could potentially pollute the entire downstream basin of the Orange River.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002100#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water scarcity","climate change","wastewater treatment","agricultural irrigation","renewable energy","water management"],"geography_discussed":["Lesotho","Yemen","Pakistan","Australia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"saiia-001754","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-001754","title":"Will Rising Democracies Adopt Pro-human Rights Foreign Policies?","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2014-09","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Policy-Briefing-105.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The policy brief examines the tension between national interests and human rights values in the foreign policies of emerging democracies like Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. While these states have collaborated with established democracies on specific crises in Myanmar, North Korea, and Libya, the author identifies significant cleavages driven by a preference for sovereignty, non-intervention, and economic interests. The document highlights how historical grievances against Northern hegemony and fear of reciprocal criticism of domestic records inhibit a consistent pro-human rights stance. However, it notes that transnational advocacy, the globalisation of media, and international mechanisms like the UN Human Rights Council provide pathways to pressure states toward greater accountability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001754#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Democratic governments globally exhibit hypocrisy by privileging national interests over human rights values when the two conflict, though they are encouraged to align practice with their proclaimed rhetoric.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001754#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Emerging democracies in the global South often adopt a fragmented approach to human rights in foreign policy, frequently opting for 'strategic autonomy' and realpolitik over value-based action.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001754#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Several factors hinder cooperation between the global South and Northern powers on human rights, including historical grievances regarding colonialism and hegemony, and a desire to counter the United States' approach to regime change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001754#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A strong emphasis on sovereignty and non-intervention often outweighs the 'Responsibility to Protect' (R2P) principle, as evidenced by the international community's ineffective response to the crisis in Syria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001754#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"States avoid criticizing the human rights records of other nations to prevent inviting scrutiny of their own domestic issues, such as India's approach to Kashmir or Brazil's stance toward Venezuela.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001754#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transnational advocacy networks, the proliferation of real-time media, and UN mechanisms like the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) increase pressure on democratic states to address human rights violations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001754#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Progress toward pro-human rights foreign policies typically requires a 'trifecta' of determined activism by NGOs and media, pressure from national legislatures, and support from enlightened government officials.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001754#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["human rights","international law"],"geography_discussed":["Brazil","India","Indonesia","South Africa","Myanmar","North Korea","Libya","Ivory Coast","Central African Republic","Syria","Ukraine","Russia","Venezuela","South Korea","Japan","Yemen","Madagascar","Mali"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","comparative study"]},{"id":"prio-001406","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001406","title":"Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2014-03","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ff919045-f18d-4e54-8e3c-ce4af474e4fa/Gates Hegre Nygård and Strand - Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict Conflict Trends 3-2014.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that internal armed conflict acts as 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where low development leads to war, which further degrades socio-economic conditions. Research by PRIO indicates that conflict detrimentally affects most MDG indicators, including GDP per capita, infant mortality, and access to potable water. Notably, the indirect effects of conflict—such as the destruction of health infrastructure and diversion of resources to military spending—can be as severe as direct battlefield casualties. The authors advocate for the UN General Assembly to make conflict reduction an explicit goal in the post-2015 development agenda to break this cycle.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001406#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Internal armed conflict has a detrimental effect on the majority of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) indicators, including undernourishment, poverty headcount, life expectancy, GDP per capita, primary school enrollment, infant mortality, and access to potable water.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001406#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The indirect consequences of conflict, such as increased exposure to disease and the destruction of health infrastructure, can be as significant as direct deaths. For infant mortality, the indirect effects typically result in surplus deaths on a par with direct casualties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001406#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A conflict of median severity—defined as 2,500 battle deaths over five years—is associated with a 15% decrease in GDP per capita and a 10% increase in infant mortality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001406#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic damage from conflict persists long after the fighting ends. Even with recovery growth, a median conflict country remains approximately 10% below the growth trajectory it would have followed had the conflict not occurred.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001406#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conflict in neighboring countries negatively impacts education; a neighbor experiencing five years of minor conflict is associated with an average reduction in educational attainment of 1.3%, which equates to a loss of 3–4 years of education for an individual.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001406#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conflict creates a 'conflict trap,' a vicious cycle where low socio-economic development facilitates the outbreak of conflict, and the resulting conflict further lowers development levels, making the total cost higher than direct estimates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001406#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["illegal logging"],"geography_discussed":["Burundi","Burkina Faso","Yemen","Oman","Namibia","Botswana","Cambodia","Liberia","Syria","Iraq","Algeria"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["statistical analysis","comparative case study","policy recommendation"]}]}