{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"geography":["Mpanga river catchment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'Mpanga river catchment' for facet 'geography' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?geography=Mpanga+river+catchment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"cdkn-000835","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cdkn-000835","title":"Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results","publisher":{"name":"Climate and Development Knowledge Network","organization":"climate-and-development-knowledge-network"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2015-11","source_url":"https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that the cost of inaction regarding climate change in Uganda is significantly higher than the cost of adaptation, estimating annual losses between US$3.1 bn and 5.9 bn by 2025 compared to an adaptation cost of US$406 m over five years. It identifies critical vulnerabilities in water availability, agricultural exports (particularly coffee), biomass energy supply, and infrastructure resilience, while highlighting that many proposed adaptation measures are 'no regrets' investments that provide immediate development benefits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000835#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The economic cost of inaction is estimated to be 20 times greater than the cost of adaptation. While adaptation is estimated to cost around US$406 m between 2015 and 2020, the cost of inaction is projected to be between US$3.1 bn and 5.9 bn per year by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000835#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water demand in Uganda is projected to increase almost ten-fold by 2050, rising from 408 million cubic metres per year to 3,963 million cubic metres per year. Under current investment plans, the economic loss from unmet demand is calculated at US$5.5 bn per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000835#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural exports, with Arabica and Robusta coffee production potentially falling by 50% by 2050, resulting in estimated losses of approximately US$1,235 m.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000835#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Uganda faces a significant future deficit in biomass energy, with climate change expected to cause a further loss of 5 to 10% of domestic wood between 2020 and 2050. This would increase the costs of inaction from US$123.6 bn to between US$130 bn and 136 bn.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000835#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Infrastructure is highly vulnerable to both lost resilience and extreme weather events. Costs from lost resilience in residential, public, and non-residential buildings could reach US$347–621 m by 2050, while damages from a doubling in the frequency of extreme events could reach US$938–3,236 m by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000835#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change and population growth are projected to increase the economic costs of malaria in specific districts. In Tororo, annual costs may rise from US$8.7–221 m currently to US$20.1–560.5 m by 2050; in Kabale, costs may rise from US$0.7–15.8 m to US$1.55–41.7 m by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000835#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change adaptation","climate finance","water scarcity","agricultural production","bioenergy","hydropower","extreme weather event","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":["Kampala","Bududa District","Karamoja","Mpanga river catchment","Kabale District","Tororo District","Rwanda","Kenya","Tanzania"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic assessment","impact assessment","case study"]},{"id":"cdkn-000831","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cdkn-000831","title":"Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda","publisher":{"name":"Climate and Development Knowledge Network","organization":"climate-and-development-knowledge-network"},"document_type":"case study","language":"en","date_published":"2015-10","source_url":"https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_MPANGA_Case-study2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report assesses climate change risks for the Mpanga River catchment, focusing on the AEMS-Mpanga hydroelectric plant and water supply for domestic, industrial, and agricultural use. It finds that energy production is more vulnerable than water supply, with potential annual welfare costs from electricity shortages reaching US$98 million by 2035-2040. While water shortages in the Rushango area could cause annual losses up to US$188,000, the energy sector's losses dominate. Adaptation measures, such as improved water resource regulation and catchment protection, are deemed cost-effective, requiring only marginal reductions in losses to yield positive returns. However, implementation is hindered by funding gaps, lack of political will, and poor river flow data.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change is projected to cause significant economic losses in the energy sector, specifically affecting the AEMS-Mpanga hydro power plant. Annual welfare costs by 2035 to 2040 are estimated between 62,733 and 246,795 million shillings (US$25 million to US$98 million).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Rushango area of the catchment is most susceptible to water supply deficits. Annual average economic losses for non-energy uses (mining, industry, and livestock) are estimated between 114 and 198 million shillings (US$45,400 to US$78,900) by 2035, potentially rising to 472 million shillings (US$188,000) based on higher per capita GDP scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate modelling for the Mpanga basin indicates a trend of rising temperatures and mixed rainfall patterns. Average annual temperatures are expected to increase by between 3 and 4.8 degrees Celsius depending on the scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy generation at the AEMS-Mpanga plant is expected to decline due to reduced river flow rates. A projected loss of approximately 115 GWh is estimated over the period 2046–2050, representing about 26% of average production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adaptation measures in the energy sector are considered highly cost-effective. To be justified under a 10% discount rate, interventions would only need to offset between 2.8% and 32.8% of estimated losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most effective local adaptation strategies for the region are identified as the better management of water for hydropower production and the promotion of water catchment protection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Several barriers impede effective water policy and adaptation, including a lack of funding for Community Development Officers to enforce laws, insufficient political will, and low educational levels in river communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical deficiency in hydrological data for the Mpanga River, as gauging stations are not functioning correctly, which hinders accurate policy making and risk management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000831#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hydropower","water management","climate change adaptation","renewable energy","water scarcity","biomass","climate modeling","Integrated Water Resources Management"],"geography_discussed":["Rushango","Fort Portal","Kamwenge","Ibanda","Kenya"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic assessment","impact analysis","adaptation evaluation"]},{"id":"cdkn-000832","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cdkn-000832","title":"Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda","publisher":{"name":"Climate and Development Knowledge Network","organization":"climate-and-development-knowledge-network"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_MPANGA_Case-study_Briefing-Note.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds that climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall, will likely cause significant economic losses in the Mpanga river catchment, particularly in the energy sector. Annual costs for the energy sector are estimated between US$25 million and US$98 million by 2030-2035, while the water supply sector in the Rushango area may face annual losses of US$45,000 to US$79,000. Adaptation measures, including water resource regulation and energy diversification, are considered high priorities as they only need to offset between 2.8% and 32.8% of estimated losses to be economically justified.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000832#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change modelling for the Mpanga River Basin indicates that temperatures may rise significantly and rainfall may decrease.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000832#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The water supply sector in the Rushango area of the catchment is expected to face the most significant impacts, with annual average economic losses estimated between US$45,000 and US$79,000. These costs could potentially reach US$188,000 depending on future GDP, population scenarios, and willingness to pay.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000832#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The energy sector is projected to bear the highest economic burden, with annual costs estimated at US$25 million to US$98 million by 2030 to 2035. This estimate was derived by adjusting value of lost load data from a study in Kenya for inflation and income differences.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000832#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adaptation options are considered a high priority because they only need to offset between 2.8% and 32.8% of estimated losses to be economically justified. The most favorable options include promoting water resource regulation for hydropower and conducting further research on climate impacts on the power supply chain.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000832#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hydroelectricity","water-supply management","climate change adaptation","renewable energy","water management","solar energy","biomass","small hydro","Sutter County","wind power","agroforestry"],"geography_discussed":["Rushango","Kenya"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic assessment","case study"]}]}