{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"climate_tags":["stranded asset"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":602,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?climate_tags=stranded+asset","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?climate_tags=stranded+asset&page=2","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"gem-000101","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000101","title":"La expansión del GNL socava los objetivos de la transición energética","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"es","date_published":"2026-06-11","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-06/Colombia%27s%20planned%20gas%20glut%20brief%20-%20Spanish.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Colombia is planning LNG import capacity that could exceed double its projected 2030 gas demand, potentially creating stranded assets and hindering its energy transition. While the country faces a domestic gas deficit and energy security risks from El Niño and geopolitical tensions, the report argues that current and planned projects—such as the SPEC LNG expansion and the Puerto Bahía or Coveñas terminals—could satisfy demand without the need for the full suite of nine planned initiatives. The document emphasizes that prioritizing flexible, temporary LNG capacity while shifting investment toward renewables and energy efficiency would align with Colombia's international climate leadership and its roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence by 90% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000101#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Colombia's planned LNG import capacity for 2030 is approximately 2,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), which is more than double the total gas demand projected by the government for that year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000101#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME) estimates that normal gas demand will be around 1,000 MMcf/d by 2030, with a projected supply deficit increasing from 200 MMcf/d to 500 MMcf/d by the same date.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000101#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Existing and advanced projects could meet nearly all of Colombia's 2030 demand; the SPEC LNG terminal in Cartagena already provides 425 MMcf/d and will expand by 58 MMcf/d by 2027, while the Puerto Bahía and Coveñas FSRU projects aim to supply 400 MMpc/d by 2029 and 2030 respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000101#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Industrial gas consumption in Colombia fell by 28% in the first four months of 2026, with users switching to liquefied petroleum gas (GLP), coal, sugarcane bagasse, and fuel oil due to local shortages and high LNG prices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000101#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Colombia has a roadmap to reduce its fossil fuel dependence and emissions by 90% by 2050 through energy efficiency, renewable generation with storage, and electrification.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000101#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["liquefied natural gas","energy transition","renewable energy","energy security","stranded asset","energy efficiency","electrification","fossil-fuel phase-out","energy storage","methane"],"geography_discussed":["Cartagena","Iran"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","infrastructure analysis"]},{"id":"gem-000111","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000111","title":"LNG buildout undermines energy transition goals","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06-11","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-06/GEM%20Colombia%27s%20planned%20gas%20glut%20brief-June-2026.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Colombia is planning at least nine major LNG import terminal projects and expansions between 2026 and 2030, which would create a capacity of approximately 2,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). This figure is more than double the government's projected gas demand of 1,000 MMcf/d for 2030. The report warns that such an overbuild could lead to stranded assets, lock the country into long-term fossil fuel contracts, and divert resources from renewables and energy efficiency. While the country faces a domestic gas deficit and energy security challenges exacerbated by El Niño and geopolitical tensions, the document suggests that near-term needs could be met without overbuilding infrastructure, aligning instead with a roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence and emissions by 90% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000111#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Colombia's planned LNG import capacity for 2030 is projected to be around 2,500 MMcf/d, which is more than twice the government's projected gas demand of 1,000 MMcf/d for the same year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000111#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"At least nine major LNG import terminal projects and expansions are planned to start operations between 2026 and 2030, though only two are currently under construction and none have reached Final Investment Decision (FID).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000111#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The existing SPEC LNG terminal in Cartagena provides 425 MMcf/d and is expected to increase by 58 MMcf/d by 2027, meaning it alone could provide nearly half of the country's total gas demand by that time.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000111#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Industrial gas consumption in Colombia fell by 28% in the first four months of 2026, with 50% of that demand shifting to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 20% to coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000111#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A roadmap from the First International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels indicates Colombia could reduce emissions and fossil fuel dependence by 90% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000111#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["liquefied natural gas","energy transition","phase-out","renewable energy","energy efficiency","electrification","stranded asset","energy security","hydropower","coal","hydraulic fracturing"],"geography_discussed":["Cartagena","Iran"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief"]},{"id":"ciel-000966","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ciel-000966","title":"Deep Pockets, Dirty Profits","publisher":{"name":"Center for International Environmental Law","organization":"center-for-international-environmental-law"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06","source_url":"https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Deep-Pockets-Dirty-Profits-Finance-Global-Petrochemicals-Brief.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that between 2019 and 2025, 240 global banks provided US$590.8 billion to the top fifteen petrochemical companies, with a high concentration of funding from US, Japanese, Chinese, German, and UK institutions. Institutional investors held US$146.6 billion in exposure to these companies as of September 2025, dominated by US-based asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock. The document argues that this financing persists despite structural risks such as overcapacity and collapsing profit margins, and often contradicts the public climate commitments of the financial institutions involved.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Between January 2019 and June 2025, the top fifteen global petrochemical companies received a total of US$590.8 billion in sustained financing from 240 major global banks. This was split almost evenly between loans (US$292.5 billion, or 49.5%) and underwriting (US$298.6 billion, or 50.5%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A small group of twenty global banks provided US$389.6 billion (65.9%) of all identified financing to the top fifteen petrochemical companies from 2019 to 2025. When adjusted specifically for petrochemical operations, these twenty banks provided US$162.8 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Financing is heavily concentrated among systemically important banks in the US, Japan, China, Germany, and the UK. The top five financiers—Citigroup, Bank of America, Mizuho Financial, JPMorgan Chase, and HSBC—supplied over a quarter of all identified financing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Citigroup has shown a consistent commitment to the sector, ranking in the top five petrochemical financiers every year from 2019 to June 2025, providing US$17.0 billion in loans and underwriting. This occurs despite the bank's Sustainable Finance Framework, which the report claims contains contradictions regarding fossil gas-derived ammonia and carbon capture and storage (CCS).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"As of September 2025, institutional investors held US$146.6 billion in exposure to the top fifteen petrochemical companies' petrochemical activities. US institutional investors dominate this landscape, with sixteen of the top twenty investors based in the US; Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Capital Group, and Geode Capital collectively hold US$53.4 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Major public pension funds, including Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) and Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), maintain investments in petrochemical giants despite their public climate and ESG commitments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"ExxonMobil is the most heavily financed company among the top fifteen, with US$56.0 billion in investment, which is nearly double the combined total for the other twelve companies excluding the top three (Linde and LyondellBasell).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The petrochemical sector faces significant financial risks, including overcapacity, collapsing profit margins, and credit downgrades for companies like INEOS, BASF, and Dow. Additionally, the industry is exposed to geopolitical instability, such as the US-Israel war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupts supply chains.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ciel-000966#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["petrochemical product","fossil fuel finance","fossil-fuel divestment","climate risk","stranded asset","carbon capture and storage","greenhouse gas emissions","plastic pollution","environmental justice","environmental, social and corporate governance","sustainable finance","Paris Agreement"],"geography_discussed":["United States","People's Republic of China","Japan","Germany","United Kingdom","Norway","France","Switzerland","South Korea","Taiwan","Iran"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["financial analysis","policy assessment"]},{"id":"fftreaty-000030","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/fftreaty-000030","title":"BEYOND FOSSIL FUELS: VISIONS FOR ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN KENYA","publisher":{"name":"Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative","organization":"fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06","source_url":"https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Beyond-Fossil-Fuels-Visions-for-Economic-Diversification-in-Kenya.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Kenya faces a significant economic burden from fossil fuel imports and subsidies despite having a nearly 90 percent renewable electricity grid. The report argues that transitioning away from fossil fuels is an economic imperative, as revenues from potential oil and coal projects are insufficient to address the national debt. It proposes a three-step pathway: immediate integration of phase-out plans, short-to-medium term divestment and investment in high-growth sectors (renewable energy, e-mobility, climate-smart agriculture, green manufacturing, and the digital economy), and long-term decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors. The document also highlights the risks of stranded assets and 'debt trap diplomacy' and recommends joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to unlock international finance and technical support.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Fossil fuels represent a major economic drain on Kenya, costing the country over US$4 billion annually in imports, while fuel stabilisation spending between 2021 and 2024 totaled KSh169 billion (US$1.3 billion).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Potential revenues from the Turkana oil project are insufficient to resolve Kenya's national debt; even under optimistic projections of KSh84–220 billion annually, repayment would take 50 to 130 years, excluding interest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Kenya's electricity sector is highly renewable, with nearly 90 percent renewable generation and an electrification rate that increased from 13 percent in 2013 to 75 percent by 2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transport sector is the primary consumer of oil, accounting for approximately 75 percent of total oil use in 2023, mostly driven by diesel for freight and heavy-duty logistics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate-related disasters, specifically droughts and floods, result in an annual GDP loss of 2.8 percent for Kenya.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Kenya risks significant financial losses from stranded assets by 2050 as global investors shift away from fossil fuels, evidenced by the withdrawal of TotalEnergies and Africa Oil from the Turkana project.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"High-growth green sectors could generate KSh23 trillion (US$178 billion) and create up to 240,000 green jobs by 2030, far outweighing the potential of fossil fuel revenues.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The digital economy is a major growth driver, contributing KSh 1.2 trillion to GDP and projected to add another KSh662 billion and 300,000 jobs by 2028.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate-smart agriculture could increase productivity by 41 percent and generate annual revenues of KSh450 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Kenya's public debt reached KSh 12.856 trillion as of April 2026, representing 69.4% of GDP, which is above the 55 percent sustainability threshold for developing economies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000030#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","fossil fuel subsidy","electromobility","Climate-smart agriculture","just transition","stranded asset","carbon price","carbon emission trading","green hydrogen","battery energy storage system","climate finance","Net-zero emissions","circular economy"],"geography_discussed":["Turkana County","Mombasa","Nairobi","Lamu County","Indonesia","South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic assessment","policy review","strategic roadmap"]},{"id":"fftreaty-000080","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/fftreaty-000080","title":"NIGERIA’S FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENCY AND THE PATH TO ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION","publisher":{"name":"Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative","organization":"fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06","source_url":"https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Report-Nigeria-FINAL.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Nigeria's economy is heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for roughly 50% of the national budget and over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. This dependency has led to 'Dutch Disease', severe environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, and fiscal fragility due to oil price volatility. With global oil demand projected to peak by 2030, the report argues for an urgent transition. It recommends diversifying into solar and hydro power, agro-processing, green manufacturing, and the digital economy. Key policy proposals include establishing a National Economic Diversification Master Plan, redirecting fossil fuel subsidy savings toward green investment, and joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to secure transition finance and debt resolution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Nigeria's extreme reliance on oil has created structural economic vulnerability, with oil accounting for 96.1 percent of export earnings and 80 percent of government revenue by 1980, leading to the decline of the agricultural sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Oil extraction has caused catastrophic environmental and health crises in the Niger Delta, including a 70 percent decline in mangrove forests, a 65 percent drop in fish populations, and a 30 percent increase in cancer rates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Nigerian banking sector faces significant financial risk due to high credit exposure to the oil and gas industry, with ten major banks holding ₦12.08 trillion (US$26 billion) in such exposures in 2023.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nigeria faces a critical 'lock-in' risk with its fossil fuel infrastructure, including the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery and plans to increase LNG exports, which may become stranded assets as global demand peaks by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The digital economy has become a primary driver of diversification, with the sector contributing 16.36 percent to GDP in 2024, surpassing the contribution of oil and gas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nigeria's energy transition requires massive investment, with the Energy Transition Plan (ETP) estimating a need for approximately US$410 billion, while current climate finance flows are insufficient, providing only US$4.928 billion between 2015 and 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The creative industry, particularly Nollywood, represents a significant economic opportunity, with industry output projected to reach US$14.82 billion by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends that Nigeria join the bloc of nations calling for a Fossil Fuel Treaty to access debt resolution facilities, transition finance, and technology transfer.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural potential remains largely untapped due to a lack of processing; for example, Nigeria is the world's largest producer of cassava (59 million metric tons annually) but performs minimal domestic value addition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000080#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["economic diversity","renewable energy","solar energy","hydropower","biomass","just transition","climate finance","climate bond","carbon emission trading","stranded asset","climate change vulnerability","fossil fuel subsidy","Net-zero emissions"],"geography_discussed":["Niger Delta","Abuja","Colombia","Indonesia","Iran"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","economic analysis","environmental impact assessment"]},{"id":"fftreaty-000081","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/fftreaty-000081","title":"TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN AFRICA","publisher":{"name":"Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative","organization":"fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06","source_url":"https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Report-Transitioning-from-fossil-fuels-in-Africa-FINAL.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that reliance on fossil fuels creates unstable government revenues, locks countries into outdated infrastructure, and exposes them to stranded asset risks as global energy systems shift. It categorizes African economies into export-dominant, import-dependent, and dual-role types, noting that no single transition pathway fits all. To mitigate these risks, the document advocates for diversification into manufacturing, agro-processing, digital services, and the domestic processing of transition minerals. It outlines a phased transition timeline from 2026 to beyond 2045, emphasizing that domestic governance reforms must be supported by international cooperation to reduce the 'African premium' on borrowing costs and improve technology access.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"African economies are categorized into three types based on their fossil fuel exposure: export-dominant economies (sensitive to price fluctuations and demand shifts), import-dependent economies (affected by trade deficits and inflation), and dual-role or mixed economies (facing both unstable revenues and high import costs).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuel dependence creates significant fiscal instability, where government revenues fluctuate with global prices, and 'presource' effects can lead to increased external debt even before production begins.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite abundant resources, energy systems in Africa often prioritize external exports and urban demand, leaving approximately 600 million people without electricity and nearly one billion without clean cooking solutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African countries face a high risk of stranded assets, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, as global climate commitments may reduce the value of these assets by more than half in some scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Renewable energy is increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels and offers a more distributed employment model, though its success depends on domestic control of value chains to avoid repeating extractive patterns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic diversification should focus on moving up value chains through domestic processing of raw materials, expanding agro-processing to reduce food import dependence, and developing the digital economy to improve productivity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition to clean energy creates opportunities for critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, manganese), but without strong governance, these sectors risk mirroring the 'raw material export' trap of fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report proposes a four-stage transition timeline: immediate term (2026–2027) for institutional alignment; short term (2027–2035) for scaling diversification; medium term (2035–2045) for aligning infrastructure; and long term (2045+) for full structural transformation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"International cooperation is essential to address the 'African premium'—overstated sovereign risk perceptions that lead to significantly higher borrowing costs for African countries compared to other regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Effective international support must go beyond funding to include technology transfer, debt restructuring linked to transition goals, and the preservation of domestic policy space.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000081#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","renewable energy","economic diversity","stranded asset","climate finance","critical minerals","energy access","industrial policy","just transition","solar energy","wind power","geothermal energy","liquefied natural gas"],"geography_discussed":["Morocco","Nigeria","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Mozambique","Kenya","Somalia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic assessment","policy framework","strategic planning"]},{"id":"natjust-000204","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/natjust-000204","title":"FAQs: South Africa's Wholesale Electricity Market","publisher":{"name":"Natural Justice","organization":"natural-justice"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06","source_url":"https://naturaljustice.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/FAQs_Market-Code-and-Rules_FINAL-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM) is a proposed short-term trading platform for bulk electricity, expected to commence at the end of 2026. Governed by the Market Code and Rules, it allows power producers and large buyers to trade electricity one day ahead or in real-time. While intended to increase competition and transparency, concerns are raised regarding the conflict of interest since the Market Operator is housed within the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA), a subsidiary of Eskom. The document highlights that the market's design could either facilitate a transition to affordable renewable energy or entrench fossil fuel generation and financial risks for municipalities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"natjust-000204#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The SAWEM is a short-term wholesale platform for buying and selling bulk electricity, where transactions occur one day ahead of production or in real-time, distinct from long-term power purchase agreements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"natjust-000204#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Trading on the SAWEM is expected to begin at the end of 2026, with the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) responsible for approving the Market Code and Rules and overseeing the platform's transparency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"natjust-000204#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Market participation is voluntary for most generators and off-takers, but Eskom Generation and Eskom Distribution are compulsory participants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"natjust-000204#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant governance concern because the Market Operator, which manages surveillance and dispute resolution, is located within the NTCSA, a subsidiary of Eskom, creating a potential conflict of interest since Eskom is also a market participant.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"natjust-000204#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed Market Code fails to incorporate climate objectives, such as greenhouse gas emissions monitoring or carbon budgeting, which are required by the Climate Change Act, 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"natjust-000204#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Consumers may face costs for uncompetitive power generation, including stranded assets like nuclear or high-capacity factor gas, through a 'legacy charge' included in the wholesale tariff.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"natjust-000204#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Municipalities may struggle with the technical requirements of forecasting demand for the day-ahead market, potentially leading to penalties and impacting the electricity prices for their consumers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"natjust-000204#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","climate finance","energy transition","electricity price","stranded asset"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","regulatory review"]},{"id":"iisd-000076","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000076","title":"Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) Agreement Erodes Last Pillar of Canadian Climate Policy","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"statement","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-15","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/articles/statement/memorandum-understanding-mou-agreement-erodes-last-pillar-canadian-climate","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The International Institute for Sustainable Development asserts that a new MOU between Canada and Alberta undermines the country's climate commitments by lowering the industrial carbon price floor to CAD 110 by 2040, promoting new bitumen pipelines, expanding LNG facilities, and increasing natural gas power generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000076#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Canada-Alberta MOU implementation plan establishes a minimum carbon price of CAD 110 per tonne by 2040, which is lower than the advertised CAD 130 and is viewed as insufficient to meet climate commitments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000076#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The federal government is accused of abandoning climate action by combining the weakened carbon price with commitments to build a new bitumen pipeline, expand LNG export facilities, and increase natural gas power generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000076#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The shift toward increased oil and gas production is described as a trajectory of dismantling health and planetary protections, which risks creating stranded assets, energy-driven inflation, and lost investment opportunities in clean energy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000076#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel industry","stranded asset","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["Alberta"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis"]},{"id":"gem-000030","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000030","title":"追踪全球燃煤电厂发展","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"zh","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Boom%20and%20Bust%202026_Chinese%20layout.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In 2025, global coal capacity grew by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, as coal plants increasingly serve as 'system insurance' rather than primary power sources. This trend is most prominent in China and India, where record-high new capacity is being offset by the rapid expansion of wind and solar energy. While the number of countries proposing new coal plants decreased from 38 in 2024 to 32 in 2025, significant expansion continues in China and India, which together account for 95% of global coal capacity under construction. In the US and EU, energy security concerns and government interventions have delayed planned retirements of coal units.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000030#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"China experienced record-breaking coal development in 2025, with 78 GW of new capacity commissioned (a ten-year high) and 161.7 GW of new or restarted projects proposed. Total capacity under development has exceeded 500 GW, despite a 1.2% drop in annual coal generation to 5,757 TWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000030#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India's coal capacity grew by 3.8% in 2025, with 27.9 GW of new or restarted projects proposed and a government goal to add 100 GW of capacity over the next seven years. However, coal generation in India fell by 2.9% as non-fossil fuel capacity exceeded half of total installed capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000030#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coal development is becoming geographically concentrated; only 32 countries proposed or built new coal plants in 2025, down from 38 in 2024 and 75 in 2014. Only 5% of global coal capacity under construction is located outside of China and India.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000030#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia's coal capacity grew by 7% in 2025, with 25% of that growth linked to captive coal power for nickel and aluminum processing. Indonesia ranks third globally for proposed coal capacity at 11 GW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000030#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal-fired power station","energy transition","renewable energy","wind power","solar energy","energy security","stranded asset"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","United States","European Union","South Korea","Japan","Turkey","Canada","Pakistan","Bangladesh","Southeast Asia","Latin America","Africa","Ukraine","Zimbabwe","Zambia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["statistical analysis","policy assessment","geographic trend analysis"]},{"id":"gem-000031","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000031","title":"Surveillance du portefeuille mondial des centrales de production électrique au charbon","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"fr","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Boom%20and%20Bust%202026_French%20layout.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while production fell by 0.6%, as new plants are increasingly built for backup reliability rather than primary generation. This trend is most prominent in China and India, where renewables are meeting most new demand. While the number of countries developing coal projects fell to 32, political interventions in the US and energy security concerns in the EU have delayed planned closures. The EU continues a terminal decline in coal, with solar and wind producing more energy than all fossil fuels combined for the first time in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a widening divergence between the addition of coal capacity and its actual use; in 2025, global capacity grew by 3.5% while production decreased by 0.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China and India are the primary drivers of new capacity, with 95% of all global coal capacity under construction located in these two countries. In China, new projects and reactivations reached a record 161.7 GW in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coal capacity is increasingly being maintained as a backup or 'dépannage' source for grid stability and energy security rather than for daily production, particularly in China, India, and the US.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The geographic footprint of coal development is shrinking, with the number of countries proposing or building new plants dropping from 75 in 2014 to 32 in 2025. Latin America reached a status of having no new coal proposals in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Planned coal plant closures are frequently delayed; nearly 70% of units scheduled for retirement in 2025 remained in service, including 69% in the EU and 59% in the US.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The European Union is experiencing a terminal decline in coal, with coal's share of total electricity production falling to 9.2% in 2025 from 24.6% in 2015. In 2025, solar and wind energy production in the EU exceeded that of all fossil fuels for the first time.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The United States was the only major economy to increase coal production in 2025, attributed to policy changes that hindered clean energy deployment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia's coal fleet grew by 7% in 2025, with a significant portion of the increase dedicated to 'captive' coal for nickel and aluminum processing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000031#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal-fired power station","energy transition","renewable energy","solar energy","wind energy","energy security","stranded asset","decarbonization","carbon credit"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","European Union","United States","Indonesia","Latin America","South Korea","Turkey","Africa","Ireland","Spain","Italy","Greece","Germany","Poland","Bulgaria","Croatia","Denmark"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["portfolio monitoring","capacity vs production analysis","policy impact assessment"]},{"id":"gem-000032","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000032","title":"Melacak Jalur Pembangkit Listrik Batu Bara Global","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"id","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Boom%20and%20Bust%202026_Indonesian%20layout.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while production fell by 0.6%, as coal is increasingly used as 'system insurance' rather than a primary energy source. This trend is most prominent in China and India, where renewables are meeting new demand despite record coal plant commissioning. Globally, the number of countries proposing new coal plants dropped to 32. In Indonesia, coal expansion continues through 'captive' plants for nickel and aluminium industries, reaching 20 GW, while national energy plans (RUKN and RUPTL) are criticized for maintaining fossil fuel dependency and lacking a clear phase-out roadmap despite official net-zero commitments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000032#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2025, there was a widening divergence between the growth of global coal capacity and actual electricity generation; while capacity rose by 3.5%, production decreased by 0.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000032#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China and India are the primary drivers of new coal capacity, using it as 'system insurance' for reliability while wind and solar meet most new demand. China saw record new or reactivated capacity of 161.7 GW in 2025, with over 500 GW total in development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000032#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of countries pursuing new coal power plants is declining, falling from 75 in 2014 to 32 in 2025. Latin America reached a 'No New Coal' status in 2025, and South Korea committed to a coal phase-out by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000032#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia's coal expansion is dominated by 'captive' power plants for the nickel and aluminium industries, which reached 20 GW in 2025, with 17 GW specifically linked to these minerals in Central Sulawesi and North Maluku.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000032#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesian energy planning exhibits significant contradictions: while the government has announced a 2060 Net Zero target and a 2040 coal closure goal, the RUPTL 2025-2034 still plans 6.4 GW of short-term on-grid coal investment and 3.1 GW of long-term capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000032#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The planned early retirement of the Cirebon-1 power plant was cancelled in early 2026 due to its technical lifespan and the fiscal rigidity of 'take-or-pay' power purchase agreements (PPA).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000032#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Pollution from the 20 most toxic coal plants in Indonesia is projected to cause approximately 156,000 premature deaths between 2026 and the end of their operations, with economic and health costs estimated at US$ 109 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000032#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal-fired power station","energy transition","renewable energy","solar energy","wind energy","Carbon lock-in","stranded asset","carbon neutrality","Just Energy Transition Partnership","power purchase agreement","air pollution","decarbonization"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","United States","European Union","South Korea","Japan","Australia","Turkey","Canada","Pakistan","Bangladesh","Southeast Asia","Russia","Central Asia","Latin America","Africa","Western Balkans","Ukraine","Central Sulawesi","North Maluku","Batam","Java","Zimbabwe","Zambia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","policy assessment","environmental impact assessment"]},{"id":"gem-000033","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000033","title":"世界の石炭火力発電所の計画追跡（2026 年5月）","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"ja","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Boom%20and%20Bust%202026_Japanese%20layout.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report highlights a growing gap in 2025 where global coal capacity increased by 3.5% despite a 0.6% decrease in generation, signaling a shift where coal serves as a backup rather than a primary power source. While China and India continue to expand capacity for energy security, the total number of countries proposing or building new coal plants fell to 32 in 2025. The document specifically contrasts the policies of South Korea, which has committed to a 2040 coal phase-out and joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, with Japan, which maintains a large coal fleet and focuses on abatement technologies like ammonia co-firing and CCS without a binding national phase-out date.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000033#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"China recorded a record high of 161.7 GW in new and restarted coal projects in 2025, with total capacity under development exceeding 500 GW, despite government pledges to reduce coal consumption during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000033#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India's coal pipeline expanded for the fifth consecutive year, with 107.3 GW in the planning stage and 23.5 GW under construction in 2025, although non-fossil fuel capacity exceeded half of its total capacity that year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000033#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Korea has shifted its policy toward a 2040 coal phase-out and joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, moving away from costly abatement technologies like ammonia co-firing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000033#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal-fired power station","energy transition","renewable energy","carbon capture and storage","Cofiring","energy security","stranded asset","Nationally Determined Contributions","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism"],"geography_discussed":["South Korea","Indonesia","Australia","Turkey","Canada","Africa","Zimbabwe","Zambia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","capacity tracking","comparative study"]},{"id":"gem-000034","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000034","title":"전 세계 석탄발전소 추이 조사","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"ko","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Boom%20and%20Bust%202026_Korean%20layout.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In 2025, global coal power capacity increased by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, reflecting a trend where coal plants act as 'system insurance' rather than primary power sources. This gap is most prominent in China and India, where record-high completions coexist with falling generation due to rapid wind and solar expansion. While the number of countries proposing new coal projects decreased from 38 in 2024 to 32 in 2025, and Latin America reached a state of no new proposals, some regions like the US and EU delayed planned closures due to energy security and political intervention. South Korea has committed to a 2040 coal phase-out, contrasting with Japan's more gradual approach focused on ammonia co-firing and efficiency improvements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2025, there was a widening gap between coal capacity and actual usage: global coal power capacity rose by 3.5%, while generation decreased by 0.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China and India saw the largest decreases in coal generation despite high completion rates; China's capacity grew by 6% while generation fell 1.2%, and India's capacity grew 3.8% while generation fell 2.9%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China recorded a historic high of 161.7GW in new and resumed coal projects in 2025, with over 500GW of total capacity currently under development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India proposed 27.9GW of new or resumed coal plants in 2025 and aims to add 100GW of new capacity over the next seven years, even as non-fossil capacity exceeded half of its total installed capacity in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Approximately 70% of coal plants scheduled for closure in 2025 remained operational, including 69% of planned closures in the EU and 59% in the US.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of countries proposing or constructing new coal plants fell from 38 in 2024 to 32 in 2025; Latin America reached a status of having no new coal plant proposals in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Korea committed to a phase-out of coal power by 2040, noting that about half of its 42GW operating capacity has closure plans before 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Japan continues to operate one of the largest coal fleets in the OECD (53GW) without a binding national phase-out schedule, focusing instead on ammonia co-firing and carbon capture and storage (CCS).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000034#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal power","renewable energy","wind power","solar energy","energy security","carbon capture and storage","Cofiring","phase-out","stranded asset"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","United States","European Union","South Korea","Japan","Indonesia","Turkey","Pakistan","Bangladesh","Southeast Asia","Africa","Zimbabwe","Zambia","Latin America","Western Balkans","Ukraine","Australia","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","policy assessment"]},{"id":"gem-000035","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000035","title":"Rastreamento global das usinas de carvão","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"pt","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Boom%20and%20Bust%202026_Portuguese%20layout.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In 2025, global coal capacity grew by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, as new plants in China and India are increasingly used as system insurance rather than primary generation. While the number of countries proposing new coal plants decreased to 32, political interventions in the US and EU delayed planned retirements. Latin America and the Caribbean achieved a status of 'No New Coal Plants' in 2025, though several countries, including Brazil and Chile, experienced setbacks in their decommissioning schedules.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000035#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a growing gap between the construction of new coal capacity and its actual use; in 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while generation decreased by 0.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000035#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China and India are leading the expansion of coal capacity despite falling generation, with China's new and reactivated projects reaching a record 161.7 GW in 2025 and India proposing 27.9 GW of new or reactivated plants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000035#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of countries proposing or building new coal plants is declining, falling from 75 in 2014 to 32 in 2025, with only 5% of global construction occurring outside China and India.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000035#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Planned coal retirements are frequently delayed due to political intervention or energy security concerns; nearly 70% of units scheduled for retirement in 2025 remained operational, including 69% in the EU and 59% in the US.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000035#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Latin America and the Caribbean reached a milestone in 2025 with no new coal plants in the pipeline, following Brazil's decision to archive its last remaining proposal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000035#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Brazil exhibits contradictory coal trends: while it stopped new plant development, it extended the mandatory purchase of electricity from coal plants like Candiota 3 and the Jorge Lacerda complex until 2040 through Law 15.269/2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000035#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Chile has decommissioned 2.4 GW of capacity between 2019 and 2025, but faces setbacks with the Andina and Hornitos units, whose retirement or conversion was pushed to May 2027.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000035#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal power","energy transition","renewable energy","solar energy","wind energy","energy security","stranded asset","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","United States","European Union","Latin America and the Caribbean","Brazil","Chile","Colombia","Dominican Republic","Mexico","Argentina","Guadeloupe","Guatemala","Panama","Indonesia","Turkey","Pakistan","Bangladesh","Zimbabwe","Zambia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity tracking","policy analysis","regional assessment"]},{"id":"gem-000037","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000037","title":"Monitoreo de la generación eléctrica mundial en base a carbón (Mayo 2026)","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"es","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Boom%20and%20Bust%202026_Spanish%20layout.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In 2025, global coal capacity grew by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, reflecting a trend where coal is increasingly used as system 'insurance' rather than a primary energy source. While Latin America achieved a 'No New Coal' status in 2025, several countries in the region, including Brazil and Chile, experienced delays or reversals in planned plant retirements. China and India continue to lead global capacity expansions, accounting for 95% of all coal capacity under construction worldwide.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a widening gap between the construction of coal capacity and its actual use; in 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while generation decreased by 0.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China and India are the primary drivers of global coal expansion, with only 5% of the world's coal capacity under construction located outside these two countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China's coal projects reached a record high of 161.7 GW in 2025, with over 500 GW of total capacity currently in development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India has a goal to add 100 GW of new coal capacity over the next seven years, despite non-fossil capacity representing more than half of its total installed energy capacity in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global coal retirements are frequently delayed; nearly 70% of coal units scheduled for retirement in 2025 remained in operation, including 69% in the EU and 59% in the United States.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Latin America and the Caribbean reached 'No New Coal' status in 2025 after Brazil abandoned its last proposed coal plant, though the region faces inconsistent retirement trajectories.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Brazil, political interventions have extended the life of coal plants; Law 15.269/2025 extended mandatory electricity purchases from coal plants, including Candiota 3, until 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Chile retired 2.4 GW of coal capacity between 2019 and 2025, but the revised National Decarbonization Plan from October 2025 shows some units may remain until 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000037#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","renewable energy","solar energy","wind energy","decarbonization","stranded asset","energy security","climate finance","just transition","environmental regulation"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","United States","European Union","Latin America and the Caribbean","Brazil","Chile","Colombia","Dominican Republic","Mexico","Argentina","Guadeloupe","Guatemala","Panama","Indonesia","Turkey","South Korea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","policy assessment","geographic comparison"]},{"id":"gem-000038","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000038","title":"Küresel Kömürlü Termik Santral Takibi","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"tr","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Boom%20and%20Bust%202026_Turkish.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while coal-generated electricity decreased by 0.6%, reflecting a shift where coal serves as backup capacity rather than a primary source. This trend is most prominent in China and India, where record capacity additions coexist with falling production due to the rise of renewables. While the number of countries planning new coal projects fell to 32 in 2025, some nations like the US and EU delayed plant closures for energy security. In Turkey, planned coal capacity has plummeted from 57.5 GW in 2015 to 0.7 GW by 2025, though tensions remain between social demand for transition and government policies such as guaranteed purchase mechanisms for coal plants through 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000038#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a growing gap between coal plant capacity and actual electricity production globally; in 2025, global installed capacity rose by 3.5% while coal-generated electricity fell by 0.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000038#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China and India are leading the trend of adding coal capacity as backup for system security while simultaneously seeing a decline in coal-based generation as renewables meet increasing demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000038#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China reached a historical peak in 2025 with 161.7 GW of new and reopened coal plant projects, and has over 500 GW in the planning stage, risking a 'lock-in' of coal capacity through 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000038#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of countries planning or constructing new coal plants continues to decline, dropping from 75 in 2014 to 32 in 2025, with Latin America reporting no new coal projects in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000038#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Approximately 70% of coal plants scheduled for closure globally in 2025 were not closed as planned, with failure rates of 69% in the EU and 59% in the US due to energy security and federal interventions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000038#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Turkey has seen a massive reduction in planned coal capacity, falling from 57.5 GW in 2015 to 0.7 GW in 2025, leaving only one active project: the expansion of the Afşin-Elbistan A Thermal Power Plant.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000038#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite the decline in planned projects, the Turkish government announced a guaranteed purchase mechanism for coal plants valid until 2030 in September 2025, and is considering long-term guarantees until 2045.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000038#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal-fired power station","energy transition","renewable energy","solar energy","wind energy","energy security","stranded asset","just transition","carbon dioxide emissions","air pollution","climate target"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","United States","European Union","Turkey","Indonesia","South Korea","Pakistan","Bangladesh","Africa","Zimbabwe","Zambia","Australia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","policy assessment","capacity tracking"]},{"id":"zca-000009","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/zca-000009","title":"Why betting on rising demand for met coal in Asia is a losing strategy","publisher":{"name":"Zero Carbon Analytics","organization":"zero-carbon-analytics"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-23","source_url":"https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/why-betting-on-rising-demand-for-met-coal-in-asia-is-a-losing-strategy/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report asserts that metallurgical coal demand is plateauing as the steel industry shifts toward low-carbon technologies like electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI). While some governments and financial institutions remain bullish on long-term growth, particularly in Asia, the document predicts a 4.8% drop in met coal consumption between 2025 and 2030. It highlights the risk of stranded assets, noting that 145 companies are planning expansions that could increase global capacity by 580 million tonnes per year. The report recommends scrapping subsidies for traditional steel, lowering industrial electricity prices, and using public procurement to prioritise green steel to accelerate the transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000009#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global demand for metallurgical coal has plateaued and is projected to decline more rapidly than thermal coal or lignite. Between 2025 and 2030, met coal consumption is expected to drop by 4.8%, compared to a 2.8% decline for coal used in power generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000009#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional demand shifts are driven by China's transition to a services-led economy and the adoption of low-carbon steel. Between 2025 and 2030, met coal demand in China could fall by 77 million tonnes (Mt), and the European Union, Japan, and Korea are expected to see a combined decrease of 21 Mt, offsetting growth in India (26 Mt) and Indonesia (12 Mt).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000009#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The steel sector is transitioning toward low-carbon methods, specifically electric arc furnaces (EAFs) using scrap steel and green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI). While current operational capacity is low—270,000 tonnes per year for green iron and 60,000 tonnes per year for green steel—planned capacity by 2050 includes an additional 28 million tonnes of green steel and 18 million tonnes of green iron.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000009#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant risk of stranded assets due to continued investment in met coal. Between 2022 and 2024, banks provided nearly USD 22 billion in financing for met coal mine developers, and institutional investors held USD 30 billion in securities. Furthermore, 145 companies are planning expansions across more than 250 projects that could increase global annual capacity by 580 million tonnes and raise production by 52%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000009#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Australia is the world's leading supplier of metallurgical coal, accounting for 42% of global exports in 2024. The country continues to develop new mines in Queensland, including the Moranbah South, Winchester South, and Isaac River projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000009#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China is implementing strategies to lower the cost of green hydrogen, aiming for a price below 25 yuan (USD 3.6) per kilogram by 2030. Additionally, the Chinese government set a target to increase the share of EAF steel to 15% of total production by 2025, though it remained at approximately 10% as of mid-2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000009#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["decarbonization","green hydrogen","Green steel","stranded asset","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","fossil fuel subsidy","government procurement"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","Australia","European Union","Sweden","Germany","France","Japan","South Korea","Indonesia","United States","Russia","Canada","Mongolia","Queensland","Karnataka","Jharkhand"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["market analysis","policy assessment"]},{"id":"plan15-000006","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/plan15-000006","title":"기후부는 12차 전기본에서 신규LNG 취소하고 재생에너지로 전환하라","publisher":{"name":"Plan 1.5","organization":"plan-1-5"},"document_type":"statement","language":"ko","date_published":"2026-04-17","source_url":"https://www.plan15.org/press/?idx=170900771&bmode=view","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"A coalition of environmental organizations demands that the South Korean government stop the expansion of LNG power generation in the upcoming 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, citing price volatility, carbon lock-in risks, and the economic viability of renewable energy alternatives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"plan15-000006#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The authors argue that expanding new LNG power generation increases the risk of stranded assets and carbon lock-in, and they demand that the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand replace large-scale new LNG plants with renewable energy and flexibility resources, including Energy Storage Systems (ESS).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"plan15-000006#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"LNG is described as an unstable and expensive energy source, with prices doubling following the Middle East war. The document notes that LNG power generation heavily influences the System Marginal Price (SMP), accounting for 83% of SMP determination instances in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"plan15-000006#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document criticizes the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, which projected LNG capacity to increase by approximately 60%, from 43GW in 2023 to 69GW by 2038. It specifically objects to the plan to replace closing coal plants with 14GW of LNG capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"plan15-000006#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors claim that the government's reliance on hydrogen co-firing or mono-firing to reduce LNG emissions is technically uncertain and economically unsound, similar to the previously halted ammonia co-firing policy for coal power.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"plan15-000006#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The statement calls for the cessation of new LNG combined heat and power (CHP) plants, suggesting instead the electrification of heat demand through technologies like heat pumps.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"plan15-000006#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","Carbon lock-in","stranded asset","Cofiring","heat pump","energy security"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy critique","advocacy"]},{"id":"iisd-000186","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000186","title":"Drawing the Line and Holding It: What existing moratoria, bans, and restrictions reveal about transitioning away from fossil fuels","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/existing-moratoria-bans-restrictions-fossil-fuels","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines 58 active fossil fuel production restrictions across 25 countries and 27 subnational jurisdictions, noting a sharp increase in such policies since the 2010s. It highlights that while these measures are expanding, they remain politically fragile and susceptible to rollbacks during high energy price cycles or government changes. The analysis emphasizes the role of subnational governments as early adopters and the importance of strong legal anchoring to prevent repeals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000186#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There are currently 58 active restrictions on fossil fuel production across 25 countries and 27 subnational jurisdictions across four continents, including bans on new coal mining, moratoria on oil and gas licensing, and prohibitions on specific extraction techniques like fracking.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000186#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of production restrictions has grown exponentially over the last decade, suggesting that governments are prioritizing long-term demand trends and stranded asset risks over short-term market signals, such as the price spikes following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000186#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Subnational governments often act as leaders in implementing restrictions, sometimes preceding or catalyzing national policy. For example, fracking bans in Scotland (2015) and Wales (2018) preceded a national UK ban in 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000186#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Production restrictions are politically fragile; 15 policies in the database have been rolled back or repealed, often due to changes in government, energy security concerns, or legal challenges.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000186#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The legal form of a restriction impacts its durability. Simple policy statements are easier to reverse than stronger instruments like executive decrees or regulations, which allow civil society to challenge rollbacks in court, as seen with litigation against the Trump administration's repeals of Obama and Biden era restrictions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000186#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Many restrictions target high-cost extraction areas or ecologically sensitive regions, such as the Arctic, the Great Lakes, and the Amazon, where cost-benefit assessments favor precautionary measures over extraction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000186#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Production restrictions primarily limit future expansion rather than current output, meaning they may remain symbolic unless paired with comprehensive packages including just transition planning and economic diversification.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000186#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["petroleum industry","hydraulic fracturing","stranded asset","just transition","biodiversity conservation","carbon sink"],"geography_discussed":["United Kingdom","Belize","France","Costa Rica","Bulgaria","Uruguay","Canada","United States","Scotland","Wales","Norway","Argentina","Entre Ríos Province","Colombia","Antarctica"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","systematic overview"]},{"id":"fftreaty-000083","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/fftreaty-000083","title":"SPILLOVER EFFECTS: THE FOSSIL FUEL– DEBT TRAP IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH","publisher":{"name":"Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative","organization":"fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04","source_url":"https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Spillover-Effects-The-Fossil-FuelDebt-Trap-in-the-Global-South-Report-Online-version.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes how high debt-service obligations and fossil fuel reliance create a structural trap for Global South nations, where fiscal pressures force governments to prioritize short-term liquidity and fossil fuel extraction over long-term renewable energy transitions. Through case studies of Colombia, Egypt, Guyana, Jordan, and Sri Lanka, it demonstrates that this nexus is systemic, often reinforced by the conditionalities of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and the interests of multinational corporations. The document advocates for comprehensive debt cancellation, the end of fossil fuel finance, and a global transition framework based on 'extraction equity' to dismantle these structural barriers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Sovereign debt in low- and middle-income countries reached nearly US$8.9 trillion in 2024, with interest payments hitting a record US$415.4 billion, often exceeding spending on health and education.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A structural feedback loop exists where debt and fossil fuels reinforce each other: high debt service crowds out renewable investment, while fossil fuel contracts and subsidies create fiscal rigidities that deepen indebtedness.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Colombia faces a tension where fossil fuel exports are necessary to generate the foreign currency required for debt servicing, yet this reliance locks in vulnerability and delays its ambitious just energy transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Guyana presents a paradox as a net-zero forest nation that has rapidly become a major oil producer; while oil wealth has reduced its debt-to-GDP ratio to 24% by 2024, it introduces risks of 'Dutch disease' and carbon lock-in.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Jordan is caught in a 'fiscal addiction' to fossil fuel consumption taxes, which generate up to US$2.8 billion annually, creating a paradox where decarbonization threatens the state's ability to service debt.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Jordan's renewable energy growth was stalled by 'take-or-pay' clauses in fossil fuel contracts, such as the US$15 billion gas deal with Israel, which forced the grid to prioritize gas over cheaper renewables.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sri Lanka's 2022 default and subsequent IMF-mandated austerity have constrained its renewable energy goals, forcing a reliance on private, debt-based financing and potentially leading to carbon lock-in through LNG deals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate disasters, such as Cyclone Ditwah in 2025 which caused damage equal to 4% of Sri Lanka's GDP, are not accounted for in IMF debt-sustainability analyses, forcing countries to borrow more for recovery.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"International Financial Institutions (IFIs) often impose conditionalities—such as subsidy removal and privatization—that prioritize creditor repayment over social protection and climate resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Credit rating agencies reinforce the fossil fuel trap by treating hydrocarbon reserves as implicit collateral, thereby penalizing countries that phase out fossil fuels with higher borrowing costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000083#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy independence","just transition","climate finance","Carbon lock-in","stranded asset","renewable energy","loss and damage","international financial institution","multilateral development bank","Small Island Developing States","carbon credit","Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation","green industrial policy"],"geography_discussed":["Colombia","Egypt","Guyana","Jordan","Sri Lanka","Africa","Latin America","Caribbean","Middle East","Asia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["structural analysis","case study","policy recommendation"]}]}