{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"climate_tags":["coal phase-out"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":491,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?climate_tags=coal+phase-out","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?climate_tags=coal+phase-out&page=2","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"ember-000317","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000317","title":"Gas share in global power mix has declined for a fifth consecutive year","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06-09","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Gas-share-in-global-power-mix-has-declined-for-a-fifth-consecutive-year-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The share of gas in the global power mix fell for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, dropping from 23.9% in 2020 to 21.8%. While absolute global gas generation has not yet peaked, its growth rate slowed from 2.9% (2016-2020) to 1.6% (2021-2025) as solar and wind met approximately 68% of global electricity demand growth over the last five years. By 2025, 61 out of 124 gas-generating economies had passed their historical gas generation peaks. In the G7, renewable power (2,544 TWh) nearly equaled gas power (2,577 TWh) in 2025. Conversely, gas remains central to the power sectors of the US and Canada, and continues to support demand in parts of North and West Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000317#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The share of gas in the global electricity mix decreased for five straight years, falling from 23.9% in 2020 to 21.8% in 2025, as renewable energy growth outpaced electricity demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000317#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Gas's contribution to meeting new global electricity demand has dropped significantly, from an average of 33% between 2001-2005 and 31% between 2016-2020, to approximately 11% between 2021-2025. In 2025, gas accounted for less than 5% of global demand growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000317#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nearly half of the world's gas-generating economies have passed their peak; 61 out of 124 such economies had gas-fired generation remain below their historical peak for at least five consecutive years by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000317#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the G7, renewable power generation (2,544 TWh) almost matched gas power generation (2,577 TWh) in 2025, contributing to clean power overtaking fossil power in the G7 mix.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000317#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Major emerging economies Brazil, China, and India are meeting electricity demand growth with limited gas reliance. China's gas share was near 3% in 2025, while India's share fell to 2.3% and Brazil's to 7.3% by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000317#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The United States saw the largest increase in gas generation between 2015 and 2025, adding 474 TWh, which represents nearly one-third of all global gas growth in that period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000317#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Geopolitical events, specifically Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and 2026 LNG disruptions related to the US-Israel war with Iran, have accelerated the shift toward renewables by highlighting the risks of import-dependent gas systems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000317#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","solar energy","wind power","energy security","electric energy consumption","fossil fuel","Coal phase-out","liquefied natural gas"],"geography_discussed":["G7","People's Republic of China","India","Brazil","United States","Japan","United Kingdom","Germany","Italy","Europe","Asia","Oceania","Latin America and the Caribbean","North America","Middle East","Africa","Canada","Vietnam","Spain"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000157","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000157","title":"Botswana: Conclusion","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-28","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BW&topic=05-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates Botswana's potential development paths up to 2043. It concludes that while the 'Current Path' provides incremental progress, it is insufficient to meet Vision 2036 goals due to persistent energy deficits and modest governance improvements. A 'Combined' scenario of integrated reforms—focusing on manufacturing, green energy, and human capital—is proposed to accelerate growth, reduce inequality, and transition the country into a high-income, inclusive society.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000157#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 'Current Path' scenario, based on historical trends and existing policies, results in moderate improvements in living standards, poverty, and life expectancy, but fails to meet the ambitions of Vision 2036 due to a widening energy deficit, high informal employment, and limited progress in health, education, and governance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000157#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Combined' scenario demonstrates that coordinated reforms can lead to faster growth and greater equity, characterized by a diversified economy with a stronger manufacturing sector, lower carbon emissions, and a significant increase in green energy production, particularly solar.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000157#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite the increase in green energy production in the Combined scenario, energy demand continues to exceed supply, indicating a critical need for regional cooperation and demand-side efficiency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000157#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve a high-income, inclusive economy, the report recommends several strategic interventions: revitalising manufacturing through industrial policy, leveraging the AfCFTA for export diversification, investing in STEM and vocational training, and transitioning to renewable energy while phasing out coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000157#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["solar energy","wind energy","carbon dioxide emissions","climate resilience","Coal phase-out","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","forecasting","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"reclfin-000749","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/reclfin-000749","title":"Risky_Venture_Report_BFF","publisher":{"name":"Reclaim Finance","organization":"reclaim-finance"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Risky_Venture_Report_BFF.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that the TotalEnergies-EPH joint venture (TTEP) locks Europe into fossil gas dependency, increases energy bill volatility through LNG imports, and relies on public subsidies that should be redirected toward clean energy. It highlights that the venture's 12.5 GW gas capacity will produce emissions comparable to entire countries like Ireland or Denmark over five years, while challenging the companies' claims that such assets are necessary for grid flexibility.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000749#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The joint venture between TotalEnergies and EPH, finalized in April 2026, will be one of Europe's largest gas power producers, operating a gas fleet with 12.5 GW of capacity, which is equivalent to the combined gas fleet capacity of Belgium, Denmark, Portugal, and Sweden.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000749#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The venture relies on importing 2 million tonnes of foreign LNG per annum, which is estimated to cost Europe between €6.675 billion and €7.555 billion over five years, primarily benefiting the fossil fuel industries of the US, Russia, and Qatar.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000749#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The joint venture's gas fleet is projected to produce climate emissions over the next five years ranging from 38 to 61 Mt CO2e, a volume comparable to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of Denmark or Ireland.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000749#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The venture is heavily dependent on public subsidies; between 2015 and 2024, over €4.08 billion was secured by TotalEnergies and EPH for the plants included in the joint venture, with at least 53% of the gas plants having secured capacity market contracts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000749#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report disputes the 'flexgen' (flexible generation) narrative used by the companies, noting that over 87.5% of the 32 gas units are combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), which are better suited for baseload generation than short-term flexibility.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000749#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural gas","liquefied natural gas","gas-fired power station","greenhouse gas emissions","energy transition","battery energy storage system","Coal phase-out"],"geography_discussed":["Italy","United Kingdom","Netherlands","Ireland","France","United States","Russia","Qatar","Czech Republic","Mozambique","Papua New Guinea","Denmark"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["risk assessment","financial analysis","policy critique"]},{"id":"ember-000197","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000197","title":"From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-28","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that by 2025, fossil fuel power generation fell below its peak in all 38 OECD member countries, driven by the rapid scaling of solar and wind energy. This trend is extending to emerging markets, with 2025 marking the first year this century (excluding 2020) that non-OECD fossil generation fell, specifically in China and India. The transition is increasingly driven by economic imperatives, as the levelized cost of solar and onshore wind is now 60% lower than combined cycle gas turbines.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000197#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2025, every one of the 38 OECD member countries was below its fossil generation peak for the first time. While 36 countries peaked in 2019 or earlier, Türkiye peaked in 2021 and Colombia peaked in 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000197#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Since peaking in 2007, fossil fuel generation in the OECD has decreased by 19% (1,313 TWh), reducing its share of the electricity mix from 63% to 48% by 2025. This contributed to a 28% reduction in power sector emissions, totaling a decrease of 1,477 MtCO2e.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000197#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Within the OECD, coal power has declined by 53% since 2007, while other fossil fuels (mainly oil) dropped by 63%. Conversely, gas generation grew by 46% in the same period, with 84% of that growth occurring in the United States due to a shift from coal to gas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000197#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic competitiveness of renewables is a primary driver of decarbonisation; in 2025, the average Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar ($39/MWh) and onshore wind ($40/MWh) was 60% lower than combined cycle gas turbines ($102/MWh). Hybrid solar-plus-storage projects reached an LCOE of $57/MWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000197#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In 2025, non-OECD fossil generation fell for the first time this century outside of 2020, with declines in China (-0.9%) and India (-3.3%). In China, fossil generation dropped by 56 TWh as solar output increased by 40% (336 TWh). India's fossil power decreased by 52 TWh following a 24% (98 TWh) increase in renewable generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000197#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Globally, 2025 was the first time renewables (33.8%, 10,730 TWh) overtook coal (33.0%, 10,476 TWh) in the power mix. Solar and wind alone met 99% of global electricity demand growth during the year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000197#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Latin America and the Caribbean, fossil generation has decreased by 16% (121 TWh) since its 2015 peak, while solar and wind generation grew by 299 TWh by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000197#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["solar energy","wind power","Coal phase-out","electricity generation","natural gas","Levelized cost of energy","battery energy storage system","energy security","decarbonization"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","United States","Colombia","Turkey","Finland","Denmark","Poland","Australia","South Australia","California","Latin America and the Caribbean","Iceland","Costa Rica"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["statistical analysis","trend analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-003367","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003367","title":"Progressing the Transition Away From Fossil Fuels: Lessons from case studies","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-03/progressing-transition-fossil-fuels-case-studies.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines a diverse array of transition mechanisms, including Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), national sectoral processes in countries like Germany and Chile, and first-mover alliances such as the Powering Past Coal Alliance. It highlights the necessity of national ownership, structured social dialogue, and blended finance to overcome political gridlock and ensure a just transition. The analysis reveals significant gaps in international support, particularly a shortfall in grants and concessional finance for Global South countries and a lack of coordinated global guidance for designing transition roadmaps.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) in South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Senegal demonstrate that linking increased national ambition to coordinated international financial support illustrates the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"JETPs have faced criticism for failing to mobilize sufficient grants and concessional finance, with significant gaps between initial pledges and the actual financial needs of host countries, especially for just transition measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"National sectoral processes in Germany, Canada, Chile, and Denmark show that deliberative governance and inclusive dialogue are essential to overcome 'political gridlock' caused by the concentrated costs of fossil fuel phase-outs on specific regions and workers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Effective national roadmaps, such as those emerging in Colombia, Brazil, and Türkiye, require a shift from treating the transition as a technical power sector target to addressing it as a foundational macroeconomic and political issue.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Colombia's transition roadmap emphasizes the integration of Indigenous and local knowledge and the 'democratization of energy systems' to avoid replicating the extractive-era injustices of the fossil fuel industry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T was criticized for opaque, submission-based consultations and a lack of transparency regarding how inputs were used, which undermined trust and procedural fairness.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"First-mover alliances like the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) and the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) lower political risk and legitimize early action through peer learning and differentiated expectations based on national capabilities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU's Methane Abatement Partnership Roadmap (MAPR) uses market access and trade regulation to influence energy-system decisions, serving as a risk-reduction step that builds regulatory capacity for a managed decline of fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A critical gap in international support is the lack of coordinated global guidance and shared standards for designing transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF) roadmaps, leaving countries to develop their own methodologies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003367#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Just Energy Transition Partnership","climate finance","Coal phase-out","just transition","Blended Finance","fossil fuel subsidy","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","renewable energy"],"geography_discussed":["South Africa","Indonesia","Vietnam","Senegal","Germany","Canada","Chile","Colombia","Turkey","Brazil","European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study analysis","policy review"]},{"id":"clibonds-000812","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clibonds-000812","title":"Renewable Power Is Key to Japan’s Energy Security","publisher":{"name":"Climate Bonds Initiative","organization":"climate-bonds-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-02","source_url":"https://www.climatebonds.net/files/documents/publications/Japans-Energy-Security_EN_Final.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report positions renewable energy expansion as a national security imperative for Japan, which had an energy import dependence of 87.4% in 2024. It argues that the current 7th Strategic Energy Plan is insufficient for the 1.5°C target and proposes a more ambitious pathway to reach 80-90% clean power by 2035-2040. Key recommendations include upscaling grid capacity, fast-tracking permitting, expanding distributed energy, and using long-term offtake agreements to lower capital costs. The document highlights Japan's potential in offshore wind, agrivoltaics, and perovskite solar cells as means to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels and Chinese crystalline-silicon PV.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clibonds-000812#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Japan's energy import dependence reached 87.4% in 2024, the highest among major economies, creating a strategic vulnerability that impacts national security and defence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clibonds-000812#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests that Japan could realistically aim for 80% or more clean power by 2040, and potentially 90% by 2035, which would significantly reduce dependence on imported LNG and coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clibonds-000812#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 7th Strategic Energy Plan is criticized for maintaining thermal power at 30-40% of the energy mix by 2040, which the report states is inconsistent with the 1.5°C global temperature target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clibonds-000812#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Japan possesses significant untapped renewable resources, with floating offshore wind potential alone estimated at 2 to 9 times the country's annual electricity demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clibonds-000812#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve a clean energy transition, the report identifies four critical policy actions: increasing transmission and distribution capacity, fast-tracking permitting, expanding distributed energy, and utilizing long-term offtake agreements to mobilize low-interest capital.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clibonds-000812#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Japan can mitigate its reliance on Chinese-dominated crystalline silicon PV by leading in next-generation technologies, specifically perovskite solar cells, with a government target of 20 GW capacity by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clibonds-000812#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increasing domestic clean power could result in significant economic savings, potentially saving up to JPY 3.4 trillion by 2035 by reducing the need for imported fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clibonds-000812#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy security","renewable energy","offshore wind power","solar energy","agrivoltaics","nuclear power","Coal phase-out","electrical grid","electric power transmission","distributed generation","microgrid","battery energy storage system","climate finance","power purchase agreement","1.5 degree Celsius climate target"],"geography_discussed":["Germany","Hokkaidō","Kyūshū region","Fukushima Prefecture","Saga","Akita Prefecture","Tochigi Prefecture","Kanagawa Prefecture"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","strategic assessment","scenario modelling"]},{"id":"gem-000188","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000188","title":"Out of sight, out of control: 31 GW of captive coal is jeopardizing Indonesia's economic and emissions goals","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-01-27","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/EN-CREA_GEM_Indonesia-captive-coal-in-2025_3.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Indonesia is experiencing an explosive surge in captive coal power, with total operational and prospective capacity reaching nearly 31 GW. This growth is heavily concentrated in nickel hubs like Central Sulawesi and North Maluku, dwarfing the expansion of the national power grid. The report highlights significant data discrepancies in official JETP mapping and warns that regulatory loopholes in PERPRES 112/2022 allow 'national strategic projects' to bypass coal moratoriums. This trajectory is projected to cause 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and USD 20 billion in economic burden, while creating 'sacrifice zones' that risk Indonesia's position in global green supply chains.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000188#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Captive coal capacity in Indonesia has grown rapidly, with 4.49 GW of industrial off-grid capacity marked operational between July 2024 and July 2025, accounting for approximately 80% of all year-over-year coal additions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000188#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total pipeline of operational and prospective captive coal projects is nearly 31 GW, which is triple the nation's 2023 captive capacity and comparable to the total coal fleet of Germany (32.3 GW).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000188#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The nickel industry is the primary driver of this growth, with 15.4 GW in operation and 2.5 GW under construction as of July 2025, particularly in Central Sulawesi and North Maluku.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000188#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There are significant discrepancies between independent monitoring and the JETP Captive Power Thematic Report, which the authors claim underestimates clean energy needs by omitting announced projects and relying on non-existent enforcement mechanisms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000188#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regulatory loopholes in Presidential Regulation No. 112 Year 2022 (PERPRES 112/2022) allow coal plants dedicated to 'national strategic projects' (PSN) to bypass the coal moratorium.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000188#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The continued use of captive coal is projected to result in 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and a cumulative economic burden of USD 20 billion if these plants are excluded from retirement targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000188#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The creation of 'sacrifice zones' in nickel hubs has led to legal consequences, such as the December 2025 Poso District Court ruling finding nickel operators liable for unlawful environmental destruction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000188#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","Coal phase-out","air pollution","climate finance","Just Energy Transition Partnership","Cofiring","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","greenhouse gas emissions reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Central Sulawesi","North Maluku","Australia","Germany","Banten","South Sumatra","South Kalimantan","South Sulawesi","East Nusa Tenggara","Riau Islands","North Kalimantan","West Java"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","capacity tracking","economic impact assessment","environmental impact assessment"]},{"id":"gem-000239","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000239","title":"Tak terlihat, tak terkendali: Pembangkit batubara captive sebesar 31 GW mempertaruhkan target ekonomi dan pengurangan emisi Indonesia","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"id","date_published":"2026-01-27","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/ID-CREA_GEM_Indonesia-captive-coal-in-2025_3.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Indonesia is experiencing a surge in 'captive' coal-fired power plants—industrial plants not connected to the national grid—which are growing significantly faster than on-grid capacity. Driven largely by nickel smelting in Sulawesi and North Maluku, total operational and prospective captive capacity is projected to reach 31 GW, nearly tripling 2023 levels. The report highlights critical transparency gaps in government and JETP data, regulatory loopholes for National Strategic Projects (PSN), and severe long-term economic and health costs, including an estimated 27,000 additional deaths and USD 20 billion in cumulative economic burdens if these plants are not phased out.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000239#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Captive coal-fired power plant capacity is expanding rapidly, far outpacing the national grid. Between July 2024 and July 2025, captive plants accounted for over 80% of all new coal capacity additions, adding 4.49 GW. Total operational and prospective capacity is expected to reach 31 GW, which is three times the total captive capacity in 2023 and exceeds Australia's current total coal capacity of 22.8 GW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000239#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The nickel industry is the primary driver of this expansion, particularly in Central Sulawesi and North Maluku. In Central Sulawesi, captive capacity grew 2.5 times between July 2023 and July 2025 (from 2.96 GW to 7.33 GW), while North Maluku grew 3.4 times (from 1.87 GW to 6.37 GW). The nickel sector's operational capacity reached 15.4 GW by July 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000239#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There are significant data inconsistencies and transparency gaps regarding captive power. Global Energy Monitor identified 7.95 GW from nine announced plants and 160 MW in pre-permitting, whereas the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) study provided inconsistent baselines, tabulating 4.45 GW of planned capacity but mentioning only 3.1 GW in its text.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000239#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regulatory loopholes, specifically exemptions for National Strategic Projects (PSN) in Presidential Regulation 112/2022 (PERPRES 112/2022), allow the continued expansion of coal plants despite a general moratorium. Proposed revisions to this regulation may further broaden exemptions based on system reliability and national strategic interests.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000239#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The long-term economic and health costs of captive coal outweigh short-term industrial gains. Analysis indicates that while nickel center profits peak in year five, environmental costs erode these gains by year eight. Excluding captive plants from national phase-out targets is projected to cause 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and a cumulative economic burden of USD 20 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000239#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The aluminium industry is emerging as a second major driver of captive coal. Projects include the AlamTri Aluminum Smelter in North Kalimantan (1.1 GW captive plant for Phase I) and the Smelter Grade Alumina Refinery in Mempawah, for which INALUM opened a tender for a 1.2 GW captive plant in December 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000239#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","Coal phase-out","air pollution","decarbonization","Just Energy Transition Partnership","Cofiring","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism"],"geography_discussed":["Central Sulawesi","North Maluku","North Kalimantan","Riau Islands","West Java","Australia","Germany"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity tracking","policy analysis","economic impact assessment","health impact projection"]},{"id":"afripo-000181","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/afripo-000181","title":"Platingruppenmetalle, grüne Wasserstoffproduktion und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Südafrika","publisher":{"name":"Africa Policy Research Institute","organization":"africa-policy-research-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-01-19","source_url":"https://afripoli.org/de/platingruppenmetalle-grune-wasserstoffproduktion-und-wirtschaftliche-entwicklung-in-sudafrika","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"South Africa holds approximately 80% of global Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), which are essential catalysts for PEM electrolysers and fuel cells used in green hydrogen production. While this provides a strategic opportunity for re-industrialisation and decarbonisation, the transition faces severe constraints, including an outdated electricity grid, water scarcity in high-resource areas, and a significant skills gap. The shift also threatens the coal and internal combustion engine automotive sectors, risking large-scale job losses in regions like Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape. Geopolitically, South Africa must navigate competition between China and Western powers, particularly as the US has withdrawn support for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). The paper argues that for the transition to be 'just', the government must integrate mineral beneficiation with social safeguards, regional SADC integration, and comprehensive workforce reskilling.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afripo-000181#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa possesses a dominant global position in the materials necessary for green hydrogen, holding approximately 80% of the world's Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), which are critical catalysts for both the production of hydrogen via PEM electrolysers and its reconversion into electricity via fuel cells.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afripo-000181#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition to a green hydrogen economy poses significant risks to existing industrial pillars. The automotive sector, which contributes 4.3% to GDP and employs over 110,000 people, faces disruption as the EU and US phase out internal combustion engines by 2030. Simultaneously, the coal sector, providing 83% of electricity, faces the closure of an estimated 15 mines by 2030 and 23 more by 2040, threatening high-paying jobs in regions already experiencing 33-42% unemployment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afripo-000181#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Severe infrastructural deficits hinder the scaling of green hydrogen. The electricity grid is outdated and designed for coal-centric flows from Mpumalanga, preventing the efficient transmission of renewable energy from the Northern and Western Cape to industrial hubs. Additionally, the high water requirements for electrolysis conflict with South Africa's water geography, as the driest provinces are often the most suitable for renewable energy generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afripo-000181#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Financial and geopolitical instability threaten the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). While the EU has recommitted to the initiative, the United States has withdrawn its support following the election of Donald Trump. Furthermore, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could expose over 50% of South Africa's export value to carbon tax levies, putting an estimated US$ 50 billion at risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afripo-000181#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical gap in the specialized skills required for a high-technology hydrogen industry. While 27 occupational qualifications have been identified as essential, work-based learning remains limited. The government is attempting to address this through the Department of Science and Innovation's Hydrogen South Africa (HySA) programme and collaborations with universities to promote platinum beneficiation for catalysts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afripo-000181#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The development of green hydrogen risks replicating historical extractive harms, including environmental degradation and the violation of community rights. In Limpopo, PGM mines have been accused of forced removals and the desecration of ancestral graves, leading to a lack of 'social licence to operate' and frequent protests over unfair labour arrangements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"afripo-000181#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["green hydrogen","just transition","decarbonization","renewable energy","electrolysis","fuel cell","critical minerals","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","electric vehicle","Coal phase-out","climate finance","water scarcity"],"geography_discussed":["Limpopo","North West","Mpumalanga","Northern Cape","Western Cape","Gauteng","KwaZulu-Natal","Eastern Cape","European Union","United States","Namibia","People's Republic of China","Japan","South Korea","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Rwanda","Zambia","United Kingdom"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","socio-economic assessment","geopolitical analysis"]},{"id":"sei-002115","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002115","title":"Planeación e implementación de transiciones justas: oportunidades para la cooperación Sur-Sur","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"es","date_published":"2026-01","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/260320a-pr315-arond-planning-and-implementing-2508b-spanish-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the challenges of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), noting their tendency to prioritize donor agendas and techno-economic frameworks over local social needs. It proposes South-South cooperation (SSC) as a vital complement to address these gaps through peer learning and context-specific solutions. Using South Africa and Colombia as case studies, the document identifies specific areas for collaboration, including mine closure, green industrialization, and the integration of peace-building experiences into transition planning.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002115#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are innovative North-South cooperation models that face significant constraints regarding funding, local ownership, and equity. While intended to be country-led, they often reproduce asymmetric power dynamics and prioritize the agendas of international donors over the development priorities of recipient nations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002115#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"JETPs frequently rely on a techno-economic paradigm that emphasizes emission reductions through specific technologies and market mechanisms, often ignoring the socio-economic realities of recipient countries. This approach risks being 'socially or ecologically exclusive' and may prioritize large-scale renewables over equitable energy access.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002115#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South-South cooperation (SSC) provides a complementary pathway for just transitions by enabling developing countries to share technical knowledge and develop solutions tailored to similar socio-economic and governance challenges. SSC can promote more holistic approaches that integrate local needs such as job creation, energy access, and socio-political inclusion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002115#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of the JETP in South Africa reveals a gap between international commitments and local realities, characterized by political resistance from coal interests, social unrest following plant closures (such as the Komati plant), and a risk that funds are spent on high-level foreign consultancy rather than community projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002115#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is significant potential for bilateral cooperation between South Africa and Colombia in several technical and strategic areas: managing mine closures (legal, engineering, and ecological restoration), leveraging peace-building project experiences for inclusive planning, and pursuing 'green industrialization' through complementary natural resources, such as producing green steel using South African iron and Colombian renewable energy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002115#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While promising, South-South cooperation is not without risks, including persistent power asymmetries, governance issues, and the influence of private multinationals or state-owned enterprises from the Global South that may have interests aligned with fossil fuels, such as the China National Petroleum Corporation in Africa or the Adani Group in Indonesia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002115#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["just transition","Just Energy Transition Partnership","South–South cooperation","climate finance","Coal phase-out","green industrial policy","renewable energy","energy access","Green steel","carbon capture and storage","fossil fuel subsidy"],"geography_discussed":["Indonesia","Vietnam","Senegal","Mpumalanga","Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","comparative analysis","strategic framework"]},{"id":"climstra-000308","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000308","title":"Implementing a Just Transition in Indonesia: Challenges and Opportunities","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2026","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Indonesia-Policy-Brief-230226.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines Indonesia's Just Transition (JT) agenda, primarily driven by the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). While a comprehensive framework exists on paper, implementation is hindered by governance restructuring, a narrow focus on the energy sector, inadequate financing for social components, and significant data gaps. The author argues for expanding JT principles across all economic sectors, strengthening subnational capacity, and increasing grant-based financing to ensure an equitable shift to a low-carbon economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000308#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Indonesia's Just Transition goals aim to peak power sector emissions by approximately 2030 and reach net zero in the power sector by 2050, with a target of 34% renewable energy generation by 2030 under JETP frameworks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000308#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) aims to mobilize USD 20 billion in financing, but this covers only about one-fifth of the total investment needed for 2030 targets. Furthermore, the social dimension of the JETP is estimated at only USD 0.2 billion, a marginal share of the total commitment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000308#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Governance of the energy transition has been disrupted by cabinet changes in late 2024, which saw the National Energy Transition Task Force replaced by the Energy Transition and Green Economy Task Force, necessitating budget realignment and knowledge transfer.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000308#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Just Transition principles are currently applied almost exclusively to the energy sector and JETP-supported projects, leaving other sectors like agriculture, transport, industry, and forestry without a dedicated social framework.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000308#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Subnational implementation is weak, as regional development plans (RPJMD) in priority provinces often ignore Just Transition as a priority and are misaligned with Regional Energy Development Plans (RUED).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000308#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The expansion of the nickel supply chain to support the global energy transition risks creating local environmental degradation and social inequality, as smelting often relies on captive coal-fired power plants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000308#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The withdrawal of the United States from its co-leadership role in the JETP in March 2025 has introduced uncertainties regarding the predictability of large-scale climate finance for Indonesia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000308#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["just transition","energy transition","decarbonization","renewable energy","Coal phase-out","climate finance","green job","critical minerals","nickel mining","social protection"],"geography_discussed":["World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","governance assessment"]},{"id":"climstra-000457","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000457","title":"Vietnam's Energy Shift as Catalyst for a Just Transition","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2026","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Vietnam-Policy-Brief-2302.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Vietnam aims for net-zero emissions by 2050, targeting a 47% renewable energy share in electricity generation by 2030. While the country has integrated Just Transition principles into national strategies and secured a USD 15.5 billion commitment via the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), it faces significant gaps in governance, social protection, and workforce reskilling. The brief recommends establishing a National Just Transition Commission and expanding international finance to cover social dimensions beyond energy infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000457#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Vietnam has integrated Just Transition principles into national strategies, but lacks a centralized coordinating body or dedicated national law to implement these commitments across sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000457#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country has achieved rapid deployment of renewable energy, yet workforce transition planning and social protection mechanisms for those affected by structural change remain underdeveloped.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000457#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has provided significant political and financial momentum, but funding is primarily focused on technology and infrastructure rather than social resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000457#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coal-dependent provinces, specifically Quang Ninh and Thai Nguyen, face higher socio-economic risks, and local governments often lack the resources to implement tailored transition plans.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000457#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementation is hindered by weak labour market data, a dependence on imported renewable technologies, and limited experience with social-impact financing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000457#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Vietnam's JET approach has shown more effective national ownership and faster decision-making compared to South Africa's experience, partly due to a more state-controlled coal sector and a more investment-ready project pipeline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000457#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["just transition","Net-zero emissions","Coal phase-out","renewable energy","wind power","solar energy","climate finance","social protection","Grid modernization","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":["Quảng Ninh","Thái Nguyên","South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","socio-economic assessment"]},{"id":"pestake-000215","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/pestake-000215","title":"Climate Standards for Private Markets Investors","publisher":{"name":"Private Equity Stakeholder Project","organization":"private-equity-stakeholder-project"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026","source_url":"https://pestakeholder.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/PESP_Report_Climate-Standards_2026.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Private Equity Stakeholder Project outlines five categories of climate standards for private markets investors: alignment with science-based targets, disclosure of fossil fuel exposure and emissions, the requirement for portfolio-wide energy transition plans, integration of environmental justice and community protections, and transparency regarding political spending and climate lobbying. The framework recommends specific timelines, such as phasing out coal power by 2030 and achieving a 4:1 ratio of low-carbon energy supply investments relative to fossil fuel investments by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pestake-000215#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Investors are encouraged to align with science-based climate targets by committing to no new fossil fuel expansion, ending gas flaring and venting, and achieving a fossil-free energy portfolio.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pestake-000215#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The standards recommend specific deadlines for the removal of fossil fuel assets, including the phase-out of coal power by 2030 and the start of decommissioning for other fossil fuel assets by the same year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pestake-000215#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To accelerate the energy transition, the document suggests that investments in low-carbon energy supply should reach a 4:1 ratio compared to fossil fuel investments by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pestake-000215#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Comprehensive disclosure is required regarding fossil fuel assets, including financial estimates for asset impairment, as well as all direct and indirect emissions and climate-related community impacts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pestake-000215#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Asset managers should provide a portfolio-wide climate transition plan that includes GHG emissions reduction targets, progress metrics, and the disclosure of the role of voluntary offsets, which the document suggests should be ceased.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pestake-000215#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The framework emphasizes the integration of human rights and social protections, calling for the establishment of grievance redress mechanisms, the adoption of no-deforestation, no peat, and no exploitation (NDPE) policies, and the development of just transition programs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pestake-000215#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transparency is required for political spending and climate lobbying at the levels of the asset manager, the portfolio company, and the trade association.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pestake-000215#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil-fuel divestment","gas flaring","Coal phase-out","greenhouse gas emissions","carbon offset","carbon dioxide removal","environmental justice","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy framework","investment standards"]},{"id":"rmi-000423","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/rmi-000423","title":"The Power Sector Transition in Southeast Asia","publisher":{"name":"RMI","organization":"rmi"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-12-10","source_url":"https://rmi.org/resources/the-power-sector-transition-in-southeast-asia/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report outlines a methodology for financial institutions to assess the transition risks and opportunities of power companies in Southeast Asia using three analytical pillars: transition footprint mapping, investment alignment, and dependency mapping. It leverages asset-level data from Global Energy Monitor to help institutions evaluate asset bases, project pipelines, and systemic barriers to decarbonization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000423#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The power sector in Southeast Asia is critical for decarbonization, as it accounts for 65 percent of the emissions reductions required to achieve national commitments, though current clean-energy investment is insufficient.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000423#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To conduct robust transition assessments of power companies, financial institutions should utilize three analytical pillars: transition footprint mapping to identify emissions-intensive assets, investment alignment to check if pipelines match targets and regional pathways, and dependency mapping to evaluate the influence of policy, technology, and market dynamics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000423#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report utilizes asset-level data from Global Energy Monitor to enable regional and national analysis, which can be applied to individual companies to identify coal-powered assets conflicting with phase-out goals or dependencies on grid infrastructure like storage and transmission.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000423#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["electric power industry","energy transition","climate finance","decarbonization","Coal phase-out","energy infrastructure","energy storage","electric power transmission"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["technical reference","methodological framework"]},{"id":"iisd-000383","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000383","title":"Coal Transition Impacts and the Approach to Inclusive Just Transition Policies in Indonesia","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-12-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/just-transition-coal-indonesia","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the impacts of coal phase-outs in East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, and Jambi, emphasizing the need for proactive investment in high-multiplier industries and green sectors to prevent economic shocks. It advocates for a combination of quantitative modelling and qualitative community research to design social protections and reskilling programs that specifically include women, youth, and informal workers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000383#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Provinces with high exposure to coal decline, specifically East Kalimantan and South Sumatra, can achieve economic renewal and job creation through targeted investments in green industries and food and beverage manufacturing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000383#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Jambi is characterized as a more diversified region that is already well-positioned to benefit from the transition opportunities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000383#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Evidence from East Kutai indicates that local communities are open to alternatives, provided there is inclusive planning, workforce reskilling, and strengthened social protection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000383#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To ensure a just transition, the report recommends combining quantitative economic models with qualitative, community-based methods such as focus groups, participatory mapping, and ethnography.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000383#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report proposes specific governance measures to embed inclusion, including the mandate of inter-ministerial coordination and the assignment of focal points for social inclusion and gender equality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000383#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Coal phase-out","just transition","economic diversity","green economy","social protection","gender equality","social inclusion","Paris Agreement"],"geography_discussed":["East Kalimantan","South Kalimantan","East Kutai"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","qualitative field research","policy analysis"]},{"id":"rmi-001014","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/rmi-001014","title":"How To Map the Transition Footprint of a Company","publisher":{"name":"RMI","organization":"rmi"},"document_type":"guide","language":"en","date_published":"2025-12","source_url":"https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2025/12/rmi-how-to-map-the-transition-footprint-of-a-company.pdf?utm_source=email&utm_medium=outreach&utm_campaign=transition_pathway_launch","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines a granular, asset-level process for financial institutions (FIs) to map a company's transition footprint. This process involves five key steps: assessing double materiality to prioritize business lines, gathering detailed asset-level data, identifying retrofit and retirement timelines, selecting appropriate transition benchmarks (such as NDCs or peer data), and evaluating the resulting transition exposure. The guide emphasizes that moving beyond high-level emissions disclosures to asset-specific analysis allows FIs to identify carbon lock-in, policy misalignment, and opportunities for early retirement of high-emissions assets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001014#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Transition footprint mapping is defined as a granular process of assessing a company's assets, activities, and geographic operations to determine where its business is most exposed to the energy transition and the associated risks and opportunities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001014#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The first step in the mapping process is a double materiality assessment, which evaluates both the financial materiality of assets to the company and the company's environmental impact, primarily through emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001014#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Effective asset-level data gathering requires capturing specific features for each asset, including production volume, emissions intensity, retirement dates, contractual or policy constraints, and equity ownership share.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001014#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Determining asset retirement and retrofit timelines requires cross-referencing company-reported schedules, technical cycles (e.g., blast furnace relining every 20 years), contractual structures like Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), and policy drivers such as coal phase-out targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001014#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"FIs should use a variety of benchmarks to evaluate transition exposure, including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), regional policy-driven pathways, technology roadmaps, and peer company data.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001014#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Comparing asset timelines against benchmarks allows FIs to identify carbon lock-in and policy risks, which can then be used to engage companies on early retirement of high-emissions assets or pivoting investment pipelines toward low-carbon alternatives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001014#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["transition finance","Carbon lock-in","power purchase agreement","Coal phase-out","carbon neutrality","Nationally Determined Contributions","renewable energy","natural gas","Scope 2","Scope 3"],"geography_discussed":["Southeast Asia","Indonesia","Malaysia","Vietnam"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["methodological guide"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000021","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000021","title":"Clean electricity regulations bolster certainty for big investments in Canadas grids","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"statement","language":"en","date_published":"2025-11-25","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/clean-electricity-regulations-bolster-certainty-big-investments-canada-grids/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Canadian Climate Institute asserts that the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) are critical for providing the long-term predictability needed by risk-averse utilities and regulators to invest in clean energy. By setting emission limits for fossil fuel-burning generation that reach zero tonnes per gigawatt hour by 2050, the CER complements industrial carbon pricing and Investment Tax Credits to lower the cost of capital for decarbonization. The author emphasizes that while the CER allows for provincial flexibility and equivalency agreements, a stable federal standard is necessary to prevent provincial rollbacks—such as Saskatchewan's decision to extend coal plant life—from undermining Canada's overall emissions targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000021#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) establish a long-term framework for decarbonization by setting emission limits for fossil fuel-burning electricity generation that begin in 2035 and reach \"zero tonnes of emissions per gigawatt hour in 2050\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000021#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CER works as part of a 'layering' of policies, including industrial carbon pricing and Investment Tax Credits (ITCs), to provide the certainty required for large capital investments and to ensure the lowest cost of capital.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000021#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A stable federal policy is necessary because utility regulators are typically risk-averse; clear policy foundations allow for higher debt-to-equity ratios and cheaper debt, which reduces costs for ratepayers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000021#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CER provides flexibility by allowing emitting generation for backup to protect reliability and by permitting provinces to negotiate equivalency agreements to implement their own equivalent legal provisions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000021#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Recent provincial actions, specifically Saskatchewan's decision to extend the life of coal plants and legal challenges from Alberta, create policy uncertainty that could risk reversing previous emissions progress.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000021#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["electrical grid","decarbonization","Coal phase-out","renewable energy","wind power","solar energy","hydropower","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Alberta","Saskatchewan","Manitoba"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000198","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000198","title":"Le Règlement sur l’électricité propre réduit l’incertitude pour les investissements dans les réseaux électriques au Canada","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"statement","language":"fr","date_published":"2025-11-25","source_url":"https://institutclimatique.ca/reglement-electricite-propre-reduit-incertitude-investissements-reseaux-electriques-canada/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Canadian Climate Institute asserts that the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) provide a critical foundation of certainty for utility providers and regulators, encouraging the massive capital investments required to decarbonize Canada's power grids. The document highlights how the CER complements other policies, such as industrial carbon pricing and investment tax credits, to lower costs for consumers and ensure a competitive advantage for industries seeking clean energy. It emphasizes that while the CER sets national goals—including a target of zero tonnes of emissions per gigawatt-hour by 2050—it maintains flexibility for provinces to implement equivalent solutions and manage their own resource planning.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000198#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) act as a stabilizing force that reduces uncertainty for utility providers and regulators, which is necessary because electricity infrastructure projects require significant long-term capital and are subject to cautious regulatory oversight.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000198#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CER is most effective when used in complementarity with other policy tools, specifically industrial carbon pricing and investment tax credits (ITCs), to attract large-scale investments in emission-reduction solutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000198#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CER establishes a clear national trajectory for decarbonization, proposing emission limits for fossil fuel plants starting in 2035 and reaching zero tonnes of emissions per gigawatt-hour by 2050, while allowing provinces to develop equivalent provincial solutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000198#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document cites the phase-out of coal in Alberta as a successful precedent where the complementarity of federal and provincial policies—including carbon pricing and coal phase-out commitments—accelerated the transition despite political changes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000198#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["electrical grid","Industrial decarbonization","Coal phase-out","renewable energy","decarbonization","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Alberta","Saskatchewan","Manitoba"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis"]},{"id":"ember-000340","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000340","title":"Response to Just Energy Transition Partnership Indonesia Progress Report 2025","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"statement","language":"en","date_published":"2025-11-24","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Letter-–-Indonesia-JETP-2025.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Ember argues that Indonesia's energy transition requires more ambitious emissions targets and a stronger regulatory framework, particularly for the underregulated captive coal sector. The organization recommends integrating JETP investments with long-term economic diversification in coal-dependent provinces to ensure a just transition. Ember also highlights a significant gap in solar deployment, noting that Indonesia reached only 416 MW of on-grid solar capacity last year against a 2025 target of 4.1 GW, and calls for more transparent procurement processes by PLN.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000340#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Indonesia's current solar energy deployment is significantly lagging behind JETP targets; the country achieved only 416 MW of on-grid solar capacity last year, while the JETP target for 2025 is 4.1 GW and for 2030 is 29.3 GW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000340#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The captive coal sector presents a major opportunity for decarbonisation, with an estimated solar PV potential of 496.3 GWp. Integrating 9.4 GW of new solar with 6.8 GW of older coal capacity could reduce emissions by 35% within two years, a reduction equivalent to the annual power sector emissions of Brunei.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000340#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a misalignment between JETP objectives and Indonesia's national planning documents, such as the National Electricity Masterplan (RUKN), National Energy Policy (KEN), and the Second NDC. While JETP aims for power-sector emissions to peak before 2030, national planning projects a peak around 2037.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000340#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The current Just Transition Framework is considered too narrow because it focuses on project-level interventions rather than system-wide impacts in regions structurally tied to fossil fuels. Ember recommends aligning JETP investments with regional diversification strategies to mitigate risks like job losses and shrinking local revenues in coal-dependent provinces.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000340#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Captive coal capacity is projected to grow to 32 GW by 2031 and remains generally underregulated. Ember recommends implementing emission caps, expanding the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to cover captive power, and enforcing emission-reduction obligations under Presidential Regulation No. 112/2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000340#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Just Energy Transition Partnership","Coal phase-out","photovoltaics","emission trading","power purchase agreement","just transition","economic diversity","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Brunei"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","stakeholder feedback"]},{"id":"ember-000361","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000361","title":"Response to Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Progress Report 2025","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2025-11-24","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Policy-paper-–-Indonesia-JETP-2025.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Ember argues that Indonesia's JETP 2025 scenario is insufficiently ambitious, particularly regarding the captive power sector, where it suggests that integrating solar PV could significantly reduce emissions. The brief calls for the inclusion of captive power in peaking emission targets, the removal of solar quotas, and the redirection of JETP investments toward coal-producing provinces to mitigate fiscal vulnerabilities and job losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000361#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The JETP 2025 scenario for the captive sector is less ambitious than previous proposals, considering only 1.6 GW of coal power plants for early retirement and reuse, compared to 5.5 GW proposed in 2023.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000361#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Integrating 9.4 GW of new solar capacity to replace 6.8 GW of ageing captive coal plants could reduce emissions by 35%, or approximately 4.4 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000361#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current JETP scenarios for on-grid and captive power result in total power sector emissions of at least 349 MtCO2e by 2030, which exceeds the 290 MtCO2e cap announced in 2023.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000361#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coal-producing provinces have faced significant declines in provincial fiscal transfers between 2023 and 2025: East Kalimantan by 41%, South Kalimantan by 30%, and South Sumatera by 23%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000361#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Approximately 17,000 coal-related jobs are projected to be lost by 2050 due to mine closures, while potential renewable projects and CFPP substitution could create nearly 100,000 jobs in major coal provinces.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000361#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To accelerate the transition, Ember recommends abolishing the Domestic Price Obligation (DPO) scheme, removing solar quotas, and implementing the second phase of the emissions trading system (ETS) to include captive power facilities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000361#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","photovoltaics","onshore wind farm","Coal phase-out","emission trading","carbon price","just transition","economic diversity","climate finance","methane emissions","carbon capture and storage","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":["East Kalimantan","South Kalimantan","South Sumatera","Brunei"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic assessment"]}]}