{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["time-series"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'time-series' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=time-series","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001245","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001245","title":"Does Gender Equality Matter? The Effect Of Gender Equality On Protest Campaign Success","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2022","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/364073cc-fc3c-46df-8f5e-765628d74bb6/Birthe_Einen Master Thesis 2022.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds that higher levels of women's political empowerment are positively associated with the success of nonviolent resistance campaigns and negatively associated with the success of violent campaigns. Using the NAVCO 2.1 dataset and the Women's Political Empowerment Index (WPEI), the author argues that gender equality shapes both the societal norms regarding the legitimacy of violence and the opportunity structures for recruitment. While the results for nonviolent campaigns are robust across various specifications, the findings for violent campaigns are more sensitive to how time dependency is handled. The author concludes that gender-related dynamics are critical structural elements in understanding the outcomes of collective action.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a positive significant relationship between women's political empowerment and the likelihood of nonviolent campaign success.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a negative significant relationship between women's political empowerment and the success of violent resistance campaigns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The effect of women's political empowerment on campaign success differs significantly based on the primary tactic used, as shown by a significant interaction term in the logit model (p < 0.001).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author hypothesises that gender inequality promotes violent campaigns by fostering norms of 'militarised masculinities' and creating a 'male surplus' that eases recruitment for armed groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Gender equality is theorised to increase nonviolent success by promoting norms of mutual respect and expanding the mobilisation pool to include more women.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Women's Political Empowerment Index (WPEI) is a more effective predictor of campaign success than other proxies such as fertility rates, literacy ratios, or infant mortality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Individual subcomponents of the WPEI (civil liberties, civil society participation, and political participation) do not show statistically significant effects on their own, suggesting that empowerment operates as a multidimensional macro-concept.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The model for nonviolent campaign success is robust across different specifications, but the model for violent campaign success is sensitive to the method used to handle time dependency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The inclusion of WPEI improves the predictive power of the models, though out-of-sample generalisability for nonviolent campaigns remains poor (AUC < 0.70).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study found no evidence of selection bias that would invalidate the use of a single-stage logistic regression model for the main analysis.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001245#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["India","Nigeria"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative","logistic regression","cross-national","time-series"]},{"id":"prio-001652","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001652","title":"Population, Resources and Political Violence: A Sub-National Study of India 1956-2002","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d022b83d-1128-4b31-a2c3-d188014a3f99/Population Resources and Political Violence A Subnational Study of India 1956-2002.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds that sub-national analysis provides stronger support for the resource scarcity-conflict nexus than global studies. Specifically, organized armed conflict is more likely in Indian states with scarce productive land and declining agricultural wages. Youth bulges are a consistent predictor of all three forms of political violence, with the risk of armed conflict increasing further in states with high male-to-female ratios. While linguistic fractionalization and Hindu relative growth are linked to armed conflict, and religious heterogeneity and non-Hindu majorities are linked to riots, the study finds little evidence that rural inequality or urban growth rates drive political violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Sub-national analysis of India provides more support for the resource scarcity and conflict scenario than recent global studies, suggesting that national aggregates may fail to capture local population dynamics that drive low-intensity conflicts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Organized armed conflict in India is positively associated with high rural population density relative to productive land and long-term declines in agricultural wages.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The risk of political violent events increases when high rural population density interacts with either high rural population growth or low agricultural yields.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Youth bulges are the only demographic factor statistically associated with an increased risk of all three forms of political violence: armed conflict, political violent events, and riots.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The impact of youth bulges on armed conflict is particularly pronounced in states with a high proportion of males relative to females.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Hindu-Muslim riots are more likely in states with high religious heterogeneity, those with a non-Hindu majority, and in cases where youth bulges coincide with high urban inequality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Differential growth rates between religious groups have a limited impact; while high relative growth of the Hindu population increases the risk of armed conflict, it does not increase the risk of less organized political violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Contrary to some resource scarcity theories, rural inequality (measured by the GINI coefficient) and urban population growth rates do not appear to increase the risk of political violence in India.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Linguistic fractionalization is associated with a higher risk of organized armed conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001652#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["urbanization"],"geography_discussed":["Kashmir"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative","time-series","sub-national study"]}]}