{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["temperature projection"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'temperature projection' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=temperature+projection","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"newclim-000333","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000333","title":"Warming Projections Global Update","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-12","source_url":"https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1187/CAT_2023-12-05_GlobalUpdate_COP28.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The December 2023 update finds that global warming projections have stalled, with current policies leading to 2.7°C of warming by 2100. Even the most optimistic scenario, including all announced targets, results in 1.8°C, exceeding the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. The report highlights a growing implementation gap and warns that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS), e-fuels, and carbon offsets are 'false solutions' that delay necessary deep emission cuts. It urges governments to submit 1.5°C-aligned 2035 targets by February 2025 and to commit to a complete phase-out of fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000333#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current global policies and actions are projected to result in 2.7°C of warming by 2100, a figure that has remained unchanged since 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000333#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Warming projections based solely on 2030 NDC targets have increased by 0.1°C since last year, now estimated at 2.5°C by the end of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000333#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Optimistic scenario', which assumes full implementation of all announced targets including net-zero targets, results in 1.8°C of warming, which is still above the 1.5°C limit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000333#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies several 'false solutions' promoted by the fossil fuel industry and some governments that prolong fossil fuel use, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), e-fuels for cars, hydrogen for gas boilers, and ammonia co-firing in coal plants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000333#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sinks to meet net-zero targets; for 28 countries covering 81% of 2019 emissions, remaining emissions in target years are estimated at 16–20% of 2019 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000333#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that any agreement at COP28 must explicitly commit to a 'phase out' of all fossil fuels, rather than a 'phase down' or a phase-out of only 'unabated' fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000333#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To keep the 1.5°C goal viable, the report states that global emissions must peak before 2025, be halved by 2030, and fossil fuel production must be cut by 40% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000333#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Nationally Determined Contributions","climate target","fossil-fuel phase-out","carbon capture and storage","carbon dioxide removal","Villevocance","Cofiring","heat pump","battery electric vehicle","climate finance","carbon credit","renewable energy","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":["Indonesia","Saudi Arabia","United Arab Emirates","United Kingdom","People's Republic of China","United States","European Union","Kazakhstan","Brazil","India","Canada","Australia","Japan","Russia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["temperature projection","policy assessment","target evaluation"]},{"id":"newclim-000324","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000324","title":"Climate Action Tracker Global Update: Glasgow’s 2030 Credibility Gap","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2021-11-10","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-global-update-glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Climate Action Tracker identifies a 'credibility gap' where current policies lead to 2.7°C of warming, while even the fulfillment of all 2030 targets would result in 2.4°C. Despite 90% of global emissions being covered by net zero targets, only 6% are rated as 'acceptable', and no analyzed country has sufficient short-term policies to reach its net zero goal. The report highlights the continued expansion of coal and natural gas as primary drivers of this failure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000324#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a significant discrepancy between current policy outcomes and target-based projections: current policies put the world on track for 2.7°C of warming by 2100, whereas meeting all 2030 targets would still result in 2.4°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000324#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While approximately 90% of global emissions are covered by net zero targets, the quality of these commitments is low; only 6% of global emissions are covered by countries with an 'acceptable' net zero rating, and no analyzed country has the short-term policies necessary to achieve its target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000324#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The continued reliance on and expansion of coal and natural gas are primary obstacles to the Paris Agreement goals. Coal must be phased out of the OECD power sector by 2030 and globally by 2040, yet pipelines remain active in China, India, Indonesia, and Viet Nam. Similarly, CO2 emissions from gas grew by 9% in the six years following the Paris Agreement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000324#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Progress on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) has been insufficient, with improvements over the last year reducing the 2030 emissions gap by only 15-17%. Some nations, including Australia, Indonesia, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland, Thailand, and Viet Nam, resubmitted targets identical to those from 2015, while Brazil and Mexico submitted less ambitious targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000324#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate target","Nationally Determined Contributions","Coal phase-out","natural gas","methane emissions","climate finance","Paris Agreement"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","European Union","United States","Australia","Indonesia","Russia","Singapore","Switzerland","Thailand","Vietnam","Brazil","Mexico","Turkey","Kazakhstan","Iran","India","Japan","South Korea","Canada","Europe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","temperature projection"]},{"id":"wri-001894","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-001894","title":"Closing the gap","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2021-09","source_url":"https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd%22%20HYPERLINK%20%22https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that current G20 commitments put the world on a trajectory for 2.4°C of warming by 2100. While announced but non-formalised pledges could lower this to 2.1°C, only an 'enhanced ambition' scenario—where all G20 members align 2030 targets with 1.5°C pathways and commit to mid-century net zero—could limit warming to 1.7°C. The authors argue that G20 countries, accounting for 75% of global emissions, are uniquely positioned to close three-quarters of the temperature gap, provided they accelerate near-term action and developed nations ramp up financial support to developing countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current formally submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and legally binding net zero commitments place the world on a trajectory for 2.4°C of warming by 2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"If G20 countries fully implement additional 2030 and net zero pledges that have been announced but not yet formalised in NDCs or binding targets, projected temperature rise in 2100 could drop to 2.1°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"An 'enhanced ambition' scenario, where all G20 members adopt mid-century net zero commitments and align NDCs with a 1.5°C pathway, could limit end-of-century global warming to 1.7°C, closing approximately 75% of the gap to the 1.5°C goal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant 2030 emissions gap of 23 GtCO2e between current submitted or announced levels and those consistent with a 1.5°C limit; this gap could be reduced by 64% if all G20 governments align their targets with 1.5°C domestic pathways.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Many G20 net zero pledges are considered unrealistic because they require extremely steep emissions reductions after 2030, which contradicts feasible global modelling pathways.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Several G20 members have submitted updated NDCs that are not meaningfully stronger than previous ones, or are effectively weaker; specifically, Brazil and Mexico submitted 2030 targets that are effectively weaker than previous commitments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The United Kingdom is the only G20 member currently on track for a 2030 domestic emissions reduction target that is considered 1.5°C aligned, although its current policies are still insufficient to meet that target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Achieving 1.5°C requires developed G20 countries to fulfill and exceed the commitment to mobilise $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing nations, as current flows are insufficient.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001894#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Nationally Determined Contributions","climate target","climate finance","greenhouse gas emissions","Paris Agreement","carbon dioxide removal","Villevocance","decarbonization"],"geography_discussed":["Argentina","Australia","Brazil","Canada","People's Republic of China","European Union","India","Indonesia","Japan","Mexico","Russia","Saudi Arabia","South Africa","South Korea","Turkey","United Kingdom","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","temperature projection","policy assessment"]},{"id":"newclim-000326","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000326","title":"Paris Agreement in force, but no increase in climate action","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016-11","source_url":"https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/48/CAT_2016-11-10_TemperatureUpdateNov16_CATUpdate.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"One year after the Paris Agreement's adoption, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) finds that national climate policies have made little progress. If NDCs are fully implemented, global warming by 2100 is estimated at 2.8°C, while current policies would lead to 3.6°C. A significant emissions gap remains for 2025 and 2030. The report highlights specific national trajectories, noting that most assessed NDCs are inadequate or medium in ambition, with particular concerns regarding the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, while noting positive renewable energy growth in India.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as of November 1, 2016, is projected to result in global warming of 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, with a likely chance of holding warming below 3.1°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a substantial gap between NDC emissions and the benchmark pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals, estimated at 14–17 GtCO2e by 2025 and 21–24 GtCO2e by 2030 for a 1.5°C compatible pathway.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current government policies are insufficient to meet their own NDCs; current policies are projected to lead to 3.6°C of warming by 2100, which is 0.5 to 1.1°C higher than the NDC scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Of 31 government NDCs assessed by the CAT, only five are rated as 'Sufficient' against a 2°C benchmark; 14 are rated 'Inadequate' and 12 are rated 'Medium'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India is experiencing a rapid growth in renewable energy installations that is displacing planned coal, though its NDC does not yet reflect these developments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China is on track to peak CO2 emissions between 2025 and 2030, but total greenhouse gas emissions may continue to rise until at least 2030 due to a lack of commitments for other gases from industry and agriculture.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Kigali Amendment aims to phase out 80–85% of HFC emissions by the late 2040s, which may slightly reduce the 2.8°C warming estimate, though the additionality of these reductions relative to NDCs is still being analyzed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The ICAO agreed on mandatory GHG emissions standards for new aircraft from 2028 and a market-based offsetting measure for emissions growth after 2020, but the global warming benefit is currently impossible to quantify due to uncertainties and the exclusion of baseline emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000326#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Nationally Determined Contributions","Paris Agreement","climate policy","greenhouse gas emissions","renewable energy","coal-fired power station","hydrofluorocarbon","carbon price","emission trading","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["United States","European Union","People's Republic of China","India","South Korea","Russia","Saudi Arabia","Argentina","Australia","Brazil","Canada","Chile","Ethiopia","Indonesia","Japan","Kazakhstan","Mexico","Morocco","Nepal","New Zealand","Norway","Philippines","Singapore","Switzerland","Ukraine"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["emissions projection","policy assessment","temperature projection"]}]}