{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["technological forecasting"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'technological forecasting' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=technological+forecasting","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"rmi-001099","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/rmi-001099","title":"The Renewable Revolution","publisher":{"name":"RMI","organization":"rmi"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-06","source_url":"https://rmi.org/app/uploads/dlm_uploads/2023/06/rmi_renewable_revolution.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document asserts that the world is in the midst of a 'renewable revolution' characterized by exponential cost declines and adoption rates for solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles. It identifies China as the current leader of this transition, which is sparking a global race to the top. The report claims that global fossil fuel demand peaked in 2019 and will enter terminal decline after 2025. By 2030, the authors predict that renewables will dominate sector sales and be significantly cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives, creating a 'renewable supercycle' for investors and a necessity for petrostates to reform. The report also highlights the potential for the Global South to leapfrog old technologies and the ability of renewables to drastically reduce air pollution deaths and environmental pressure compared to fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001099#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Renewable energy technologies are experiencing exponential growth and rapid cost reductions, with costs for onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, and batteries falling by 60%–80% between 2012 and 2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001099#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global primary fossil fuel demand is estimated to have peaked in 2019 and is currently on a plateau that is expected to end around 2025, followed by a terminal decline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001099#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China is the dominant leader in the renewable revolution due to its manufacturing capacity, strategic government focus, and status as a major fossil fuel importer, which has pushed other regions like the US and EU to accelerate their own deployments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001099#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"By 2030, S-curve modeling suggests that electric vehicles (EVs) will account for over 70% of global sales and 90% of sales in China, while solar additions are projected to exceed 1,000 GW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001099#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition creates significant financial risks for banks and investors with high exposure to fossil fuels, potentially leading to a 'Minsky moment' as trillions of dollars in fixed assets become stranded.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001099#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Renewable energy solutions offer vastly lower environmental and health impacts than fossil fuels, including the potential to prevent 8 million deaths annually caused by fossil fuel air pollution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001099#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Global South has a unique opportunity to leapfrog fossil fuel-based development by deploying cheap, local, and distributed renewable resources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001099#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","solar energy","wind power","electric vehicle","battery energy storage system","green hydrogen","energy efficiency","fossil fuel demand","energy transition","climate finance","stranded asset","energy security","air pollution","circular economy","carbon neutrality"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","United States","European Union","India","Vietnam","Morocco","Chile","Barbados"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","technological forecasting","economic assessment"]},{"id":"rmi-000780","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/rmi-000780","title":"Door-to-Downtown","publisher":{"name":"RMI","organization":"rmi"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2017-05","source_url":"https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/Mobility_Report_Door_to_Downtown_2017.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Door-to-Downtown (d2d) pilot in Boulder, Colorado, tested a public-private partnership to shift residents and visitors from personal vehicles to shared mobility services. By offering a $5 discount on inbound trips, the program attracted 5,400 registrants and generated nearly 2,500 trips, primarily peaking on Fridays. The pilot demonstrated that MaaS can alleviate downtown parking pressure and provide a scalable model for future electric and autonomous vehicle integration to meet carbon reduction goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000780#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The d2d pilot program attracted 5,400 registrants and resulted in 2,477 total trips via Uber, Lyft, and zTrip. Usage peaked on Fridays with an average of 60 trips per day, which is the time when downtown parking is most challenging.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000780#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The program successfully reduced parking demand, with an estimated 1,040 personal vehicles avoiding downtown parking during the pilot. This was based on survey data showing 42 percent of users would have otherwise used a single-occupant vehicle (SOV).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000780#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The pilot demonstrated a positive economic return; d2d users spent an average of $87 per person downtown. The resulting sales tax revenue (estimated between $8,318 and $14,972) covered at least 85 percent of the $9,802 subsidy cost.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000780#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While the pilot did not directly reduce emissions, it provided a baseline for potential CO2 savings through electrification. If the 5,410 personal vehicle miles displaced by the program were electrified on Boulder's current grid, it would save 0.5 metric tons of CO2.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000780#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Marketing efforts were most effective via social media and word of mouth. However, the program struggled to convert the 45+ age demographic into active users despite targeted print and digital outreach.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000780#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that the current US mobility paradigm is unsustainable, noting that personal vehicles sit unused 95 percent of the time and that the US spends $160 billion annually maintaining a system that still faces $2 trillion to $4 trillion in needed upgrades.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000780#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors propose a future 'eaMaaS' (electric, autonomous Mobility as a Service) model. They estimate that a fleet of electric, autonomous service vehicles could provide city-wide service for $0.35/mile or lower by 2035, compared to the current average personal vehicle cost of $0.58/mile.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000780#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["mobility as a service","electric vehicle","autonomous vehicle","carbon dioxide emissions","urban planning","public–private partnership"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Colorado"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["pilot project evaluation","economic impact analysis","technological forecasting"]}]}