{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["systems thinking"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'systems thinking' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":5,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=systems+thinking","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iisd-003310","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003310","title":"A Sustainable Asset Valuation Assessment of Nature-Based Solutions in the Jukskei River Catchment in Johannesburg, South Africa","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-03/nature-based-solutions-johannesburg.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The assessment evaluates the viability of nature-based solutions (NbS) in Johannesburg's Jukskei River catchment, including riparian restoration and urban tree planting. Using the SAVi methodology, the report finds that these interventions are economically viable, with a discounted benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of 3.06 and cumulative net benefits of ZAR 152 million from 2025 to 2050. The most significant benefits are avoided health costs from water pollution and avoided infrastructure damage from flooding.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003310#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The nature-based solutions (NbS) interventions in Johannesburg are economically viable, yielding a cumulative discounted net benefit of ZAR 152.0 million over a 25-year period (2025–2050) with an integrated benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of 3.06.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003310#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most substantial individual benefit is the reduction of intangible avoided health costs related to water pollution, valued at ZAR 65.4 million, followed by tangible avoided costs for flood damage to infrastructure at ZAR 62.1 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003310#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Other significant economic benefits include ZAR 38.8 million in avoided alien invasive plant management costs, ZAR 19.5 million in avoided health costs from heat, and ZAR 31.3 million from carbon sequestration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003310#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sensitivity analysis shows that a higher shadow price for carbon (USD 40/ton) increases carbon sequestration benefits to ZAR 88 million and the BCR to 3.83. Conversely, a scenario with lower flood damages reduces avoided infrastructure costs to ZAR 12.4 million, though the project remains viable with a BCR of 2.38.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003310#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The NbS interventions cover 469 hectares of riparian zone and include the planting of 46,000 trees to address degradation caused by rapid urbanization, pollution, and invasive species.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003310#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["nature-based solutions","climate change adaptation","Flood risk management","water pollution","carbon sequestration","urban heat island","biodiversity protection"],"geography_discussed":["Ethiopia","Rwanda","Dire Dawa","Kigali"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","systems thinking","spatial analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-001840","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001840","title":"A Sustainable Asset Valuation Assessment of Nature-Based Solutions in Kigali, Rwanda","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-01/nature-based-solutions-kigali.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The assessment finds that nature-based solutions (NbS) in Kigali—including afforestation, reforestation, agroforestry, and urban tree planting—are economically viable, with a discounted benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of 2.09 and cumulative net benefits of RWF 17,039 million from 2025 to 2050. The primary economic driver is the avoidance of flood damage to infrastructure, valued at RWF 17,311 million, alongside significant intangible benefits from reduced water pollution and carbon sequestration. Sensitivity analyses indicate that higher valuations for carbon and water pollution further increase the project's economic viability, with BCRs reaching up to 2.94.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001840#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The implementation of NbS interventions in Kigali is projected to be economically viable over a 25-year period (2025–2050), yielding a discounted benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of 2.09 and cumulative discounted net benefits of RWF 17,039 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001840#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most significant economic impact of the NbS scenario is the avoidance of flood damage to infrastructure, which is valued at a cumulative discounted RWF 17,311 million and corresponds to a reduction in damage for approximately 687 buildings.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001840#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Beyond infrastructure, the project generates substantial intangible and social benefits, including RWF 5,349 million from avoided water pollution health costs, RWF 4,337 million from carbon sequestration, and RWF 2,875 million from employment creation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001840#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the project's viability increases under higher valuation scenarios: a high social cost of carbon (USD 40/ton) raises the BCR to 2.60, while a combined high cost of carbon and water pollution increases the BCR to 2.94.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001840#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Spatially explicit analysis using InVEST models indicates that the 'Restored LULC scenario' would increase carbon storage by approximately 30% (600,000 tons), increase habitat quality by nearly 19%, and increase runoff retention by roughly 5% (1,700,000 m3).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001840#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project's total direct costs are estimated at RWF 15,563 million, consisting of RWF 3,579 million for implementation and RWF 11,984 million for operation and maintenance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001840#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["nature-based solutions","climate change adaptation","urban resilience","Flood risk management","carbon sequestration","agroforestry","afforestation","reforestation","biodiversity protection","urban heat island"],"geography_discussed":["Ethiopia","South Africa","Dire Dawa","Johannesburg"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","spatial analysis","systems thinking"]},{"id":"iisd-003307","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003307","title":"A Sustainable Asset Valuation Assessment of Nature-Based Solutions in the Dechatu River Catchment in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-11","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-11/nature-based-solutions-dire-dawa.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates the impact of SUNCASA-implemented nature-based solutions (NbS) in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia, focusing on the Dechatu River Catchment. Using the SAVi methodology, it projects that interventions including afforestation, agroforestry, and urban tree planting will generate a discounted net benefit of ETB 101.6 million from 2025 to 2050, with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 1.36. The primary economic driver is the avoidance of flood-related infrastructure damage, valued at ETB 188.1 million. The assessment also highlights significant intangible benefits, such as avoided health costs from water pollution (ETB 65.8 million) and carbon sequestration (ETB 54.2 million). Sensitivity analyses indicate the project remains viable even with a 94% tree survival rate or under higher carbon pricing scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003307#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The NbS interventions in Dire Dawa are projected to be economically viable, generating a cumulative discounted net benefit of ETB 101.6 million and an integrated benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of 1.36 over a 25-year period (2025–2050).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003307#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most significant individual impact of the NbS scenario is the reduction of tangible costs associated with flood damage to infrastructure, valued at a cumulative discounted ETB 188.1 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003307#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Substantial intangible societal values are generated, including avoided health costs from water pollution (ETB 65.8 million), carbon sequestration (ETB 54.2 million), and avoided health costs from floods (ETB 33.3 million).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003307#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Spatially explicit analysis using InVEST models indicates that the 'Restored LULC scenario' will increase carbon storage by approximately 25.12% (175,000 tons), increase mean habitat quality by 16%, and increase runoff retention by roughly 4% (278,000 m3).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003307#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sensitivity analysis shows that the project remains economically viable under a 94% tree survival rate, with net benefits of ETB 78.6 million and a BCR of 1.28.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003307#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Applying a higher shadow price for carbon (USD 40/ton) significantly increases the projected economic value of carbon sequestration to ETB 312.4 million, raising the overall BCR to 2.28.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003307#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["nature-based solutions","climate change adaptation","Flood risk management","carbon sequestration","agroforestry","afforestation","water scarcity","groundwater recharge","soil erosion","urban heat island","biodiversity protection"],"geography_discussed":["Kigali","Rwanda","Johannesburg","South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","spatial analysis","systems thinking","sensitivity analysis"]},{"id":"saiia-001975","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-001975","title":"SADC Futures of Green Industrialisation: A Call for an Alternative Paradigm?","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2023-06","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_145_SADCGreenIndustrialisation.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document critiques current green industrialisation (GI) strategies in the SADC region for remaining tethered to linear economic growth models and 'greenwashing'. It proposes a 'regenerative' alternative based on principles of holism, biomimicry, and African indigenous philosophies like Ubuntu and Ukama. Through scenario analysis, the authors present three possible futures: a business-as-usual scenario (Scenario A), a dystopian 'Apocalyptic Africa' (Scenario B) marked by extreme climate disasters and resource wars, and a 'Regenerative Revival' (Scenario C). The brief concludes that SADC must move beyond surface-level policy changes to shift deeper mental models and paradigms, recommending the use of strategic foresight, the empowerment of youth, and a 'bottom-in' approach to reach marginalised populations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001975#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current green industrialisation strategies in SADC are largely insufficient because they remain oriented toward linear economic growth models and lack transformative regenerative approaches.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001975#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The region faces a risk of 'green neo-colonialism' or a 'green scramble for Africa,' where global powers like China and Europe extract critical minerals for their own decarbonisation needs without benefiting local sustainable development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001975#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A worst-case scenario for the region involves extreme climate disruptions, including temperatures exceeding 40°C for many weeks, leading to famine, state failure, and the rise of climate refugees.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001975#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African indigenous knowledge systems (IKS), specifically the concepts of Ubuntu (interdependent human relationships) and Ukama (holistic relationships between humanity, environment, and ancestors), provide a viable foundation for regenerative economics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001975#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"SADC's ability to transition to a regenerative economy is threatened by poor governance, inconsistent economic growth, and a mismatch between the skills of its large youth population and job market demands.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001975#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve transformative change, SADC should adopt a dual approach: 'top-out' proactive engagement with global powers to leverage its natural resources, and 'bottom-in' strategies targeting marginalised regions to ensure resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001975#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","energy transition","circular economy","decarbonization","traditional knowledge","critical minerals","biodiversity loss","climate migrant","Sustainable Development Goals"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Zambia","Namibia","Angola","People's Republic of China","Europe","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","policy analysis","systems thinking"]},{"id":"clipolin-000891","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000891","title":"A Systems Approach to Accelerating Climate Finance: Needs and Actor Analysis","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2018-03","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Systems_Approach_to_Climate_Finance-Needs_Actors.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research identifies a sustainable infrastructure investment gap of USD 18-36 trillion in developing countries, with critical needs in power generation, transport, and water. It analyzes the roles of various public finance actors—including bilateral aid agencies, multilateral development banks (MDBs), and national development banks (NDBs)—highlighting a systemic mismatch where the largest mitigation potentials in upper-middle-income countries lack access to concessional finance. The paper argues for a shift from project-specific finance to financial system development and the scaling of blended finance and risk-mitigation instruments to crowd in private capital.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The sustainable infrastructure investment gap across developing countries is estimated at USD 33 trillion until 2030, with the vast majority (USD 27 trillion) allocated to upper middle-income countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Integrating climate resilience, adaptation, and mitigation costs results in an investment gap of USD 18-36 trillion, with the most significant needs in the water and sanitation, transportation, and power generation sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of 132 climate finance submissions reveals that 69% of proposed solutions utilize a fund concept, specifically blended structured finance vehicles, to address barriers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant gap in concessional finance access; of 21 emerging market countries with a USD 23 trillion climate investment opportunity, only 5 have access to the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) concessional finance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public climate finance flows are heavily skewed toward mitigation (71%), with renewable energy (37%) and transport (17%) as the primary sectors of focus.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Bilateral aid agencies are characterized by a high risk appetite due to their grant-based funding, making them essential for first-of-their-kind initiatives and technical assistance in the poorest countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have set ambitious targets to increase climate finance by 2020, such as the Asian Development Bank's goal to double its annual climate finance to USD 6 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"National Development Banks (NDBs) provide the largest climate financing flows due to their domestic infrastructure mandates, but they often suffer from inadequate access to low-cost capital and risk mitigation tools.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A systemic tension exists where grant and concessional funding is targeted toward the poorest countries, which often have lower climate change mitigation potential compared to larger emitters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The paper recommends that international public actors shift their focus from individual project finance toward the development of 'green' domestic financial systems in developing countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000891#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate finance","Blended Finance","multilateral development bank","national development bank","renewable energy","climate change adaptation","climate change mitigation","green infrastructure","Nationally Determined Contributions","sustainable finance"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","Zambia","sub-Saharan Africa","Latin America and the Caribbean","East Asia & Pacific"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["actor analysis","investment gap analysis","systems thinking"]}]}