{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["systems dynamics simulation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'systems dynamics simulation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=systems+dynamics+simulation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iisd-002006","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002006","title":"Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) pour la voie de contournement de Rabat au Maroc: Gros plan sur les infrastructures routières","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"fr","date_published":"2019-03","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-contournement-morocco-fr.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates the 4.1 km Rabat bypass road, including the Mohammed VI bridge, using the SAVi tool to simulate six risk scenarios and four external factors. The analysis finds that the project is not financially viable based on its own revenues across all scenarios, as evidenced by negative Net Present Values (NPV) and insufficient Internal Rates of Return (IRR). However, integrating external factors—specifically the value of time saved and accident costs—significantly alters the cost-benefit analysis, demonstrating that conventional financial assessments underestimate the true risks and benefits of the infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Rabat bypass road project is not financially viable when relying solely on its own revenues, regardless of the risk scenario modeled, showing a negative net present value (NPV) and an internal rate of return (IRR) below market rates for similar regional projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Integrating external factors into the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) significantly changes the results; while the project appears balanced under conventional analysis, it shows negative results when the total cost of accidents is included, ranging from -8.6 million euros in the climate change scenario to -93.7 million euros in the increased roadworks scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"External factors represent a substantial cost, accounting for between 13% and 19% of the expenses for operations and maintenance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reducing maintenance spending by 5% (Scenario 2) leads to an increase in accidents, where the resulting economic and social costs far outweigh the savings achieved from reduced maintenance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change impacts (Scenario 6), characterized by road damage on 2 km every 10 years, lead to a decline in all financial indicators due to the cumulative effect of frequent disruptions and the need for reconstruction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The value of time saved is one of the most significant external factors, with cumulative savings of 162.6 million euros between 2018 and 2060 in the baseline, reduced maintenance, and heavy vehicle increase scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increased heavy vehicle traffic (Scenario 5), with a 30% increase between 2018 and 2030, results in the highest operational and maintenance cost increase, rising by 8.40% compared to the baseline due to accelerated pavement degradation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The social cost of carbon is estimated at 31 US dollars per ton of CO2 emissions generated, and its value increases in scenarios involving more frequent road maintenance and reconstruction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002006#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","infrastructure resilience","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","financial viability analysis","systems dynamics simulation","risk assessment"]},{"id":"iisd-002007","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002007","title":"Analysis of Grey and Natural Infrastructure for Lake Conservation Applying the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) to Lake Dal, in Srinagar, State of Jammu & Kashmir, India","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-dal-lake-india-brochure.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document assesses five scenarios for the conservation of Lake Dal, ranging from business-as-usual to hybrid infrastructure upgrades. Using the SAVi tool, it finds that a hybrid approach—combining upgraded sewage treatment with a 500 ha artificial wetland—yields the highest net benefits (INR 360 billion) and the best water quality improvements. Conversely, the 'business-as-usual' scenario predicts a continuous decline in water quality and severe revenue losses for tourism and fisheries by 2060. The analysis also indicates that constructing the Western Foreshore Road would reduce tourism and fishery revenues by over INR 72 billion compared to the hybrid scenario due to damage to lake integrity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002007#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 'Business-as-usual' (BAU) scenario, reflecting 2018 conditions, predicts a continuous decline in water quality that will cause severe revenue losses for Srinagar's tourism industry and threaten the local fishery industry by 2060.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002007#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The hybrid infrastructure upgrade (Scenario 3), which includes a 500 ha artificial wetland and upgraded sewage treatment, provides the highest net benefits at INR 360 billion, representing a 62% increase in net benefits over the grey infrastructure upgrade (Scenario 2) with only an 8.6% increase in investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002007#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The hybrid infrastructure scenario is the most effective for water quality between 2030 and 2060, reducing nitrogen concentration by an average of 65.5%, improving water clarity by an average of 174%, and reducing chlorophyll-a concentration by nearly 90% compared to the BAU scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002007#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Constructing the 20 km Western Foreshore Road (Scenario 4) would result in lower net benefits than the hybrid upgrade, reducing revenues for the fishery and tourism industries by more than INR 72 billion by 2060 due to new encroachment and damage to water quality from the sealed road surface.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002007#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing sewage treatment exclusively for houseboats (Scenario 1) is deemed not worthwhile, as it results in negative net results and negligible benefits despite a required investment of INR 768 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002007#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The grey infrastructure upgrade (Scenario 2), involving 100% connection of the lake periphery to upgraded sewage plants powered by solar PV and battery storage, is an intermediate solution with benefits of INR 237 billion outweighing an investment of INR 15.6 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002007#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water quality","photovoltaics","battery energy storage system","tourism industry"],"geography_discussed":["India"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","systems dynamics simulation"]}]}