{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["sustainability risk assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'sustainability risk assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=sustainability+risk+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"wwfza-000200","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwfza-000200","title":"Technical and economic pre-feasibility of biomass waste utilization for production of sustainable aviation fuel by PetroSA","publisher":{"name":"WWF South Africa","organization":"wwf-south-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-02","source_url":"https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/petrosa_ethanol_supply_pre_feasibility.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study evaluates the feasibility of supplying 300 million litres of ethanol annually to PetroSA's Conversion of Olefins to Distillate (COD) plant. It compares three primary feedstock pathways: first-generation (1G) molasses, second-generation (2G) lignocellulosic biomass (primarily invasive alien plants and garden waste), and third-generation (3G) industrial off-gases. The analysis finds that molasses-based ethanol is the most cost-effective and carbon-efficient option, while lignocellulosic ethanol is the most expensive due to high acquisition and processing costs. However, the report suggests that a diversified sourcing strategy incorporating invasive alien plants (IAPs) could meet broader socio-economic goals, such as job creation and drought resilience, at an additional cost of approximately R1 billion per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Molasses-based ethanol is the most economically and carbon-efficient single-feedstock option, with a total annual cost of approximately R2.86 billion and the lowest transport carbon emissions at 0.063 kg per litre.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lignocellulosic ethanol, primarily from invasive alien plants (IAPs), is the most expensive supply chain, costing approximately R5.77 billion annually, which is nearly double the cost of the molasses option.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Industrial off-gas fermentation is a mid-cost option with a total annual cost of R4.48 billion; its economic performance is hindered by high electricity demands in energy self-sufficient configurations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is significant availability of invasive alien plant (IAP) biomass in the Western and Eastern Cape, with 37.1 million tonnes easily accessible (slopes up to 20%) and 26.7 million tonnes fairly accessible (slopes 20-35%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The identified easily accessible IAP biomass in the Western and Eastern Cape alone is sufficient to meet PetroSA's annual demand of 1 to 1.5 million tonnes of lignocellulosic feedstock for 300 million litres of ethanol.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A sustainability risk assessment identifies molasses and bagasse as high risk due to potential GHG impacts, IAPs as medium risk due to ecological and labour concerns, and garden waste and industrial off-gasses as low risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) at the factory gate varies significantly by technology, ranging from R8.27/l for 1G molasses to as high as R38.31/l for 2G gasification-fermentation in self-sufficiency mode.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A diversified sourcing strategy combining one IAP-based facility in Ceres, two molasses-based facilities in KwaZulu-Natal, and one to two industrial off-gas facilities could meet multiple socio-economic objectives at an additional cost of roughly R1 billion per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Industrial off-gasses from stainless steel and ferroalloy smelters have the potential to produce 410 million litres of ethanol annually, exceeding PetroSA's 300 million litre requirement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000200#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Sustainable Aviation Fuel","carbon dioxide emissions","greenhouse gas","bioenergy"],"geography_discussed":["Western Cape","Eastern Cape","KwaZulu-Natal","Mpumalanga","Ceres","Queenstown","Mthatha"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["techno-economic analysis","pre-feasibility study","network optimisation","sustainability risk assessment"]},{"id":"wwfza-000208","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwfza-000208","title":"WP1 Summary report: Optimising waste biomass supply for production of sustainable aviation fuel in South Africa","publisher":{"name":"WWF South Africa","organization":"wwf-south-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-08","source_url":"https://dtnac4dfluyw8.cloudfront.net/downloads/w2w_wp1_summary_report_final_21082019.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that South Africa has sufficient waste biomass to meet the potential demand of Sasol's Secunda plant, with availability estimated at 2 to 4 times the maximum potential demand. Garden waste and sawdust are identified as the lowest-risk feedstocks. Fuel rods are the most cost-competitive densification option for woody biomass, while white pellets are cheapest for soft biomass. The study concludes that biomass feedstock would be 3-4 times more expensive than coal, though this could be offset by SAF premiums and carbon tax liabilities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Waste biomass availability in South Africa is sufficient to meet potential demand from Sasol (0.5 – 5 million tonnes of dry biomass per annum), with estimates showing \"at least twice as much waste biomass available as the maximum potential demand from Sasol\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Garden waste from major metros, particularly Johannesburg, and sawmill sawdust are the most suitable initial feedstocks because they are available in large quantities and \"pose the lowest sustainability risks, including risk of indirect land use change\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sustainability risks vary by feedstock: corn stover and sugarcane bagasse are rated as 'High' risk due to soil health concerns and potential for indirect land use change (iLUC), while invasive alien plants and forestry residues are rated as 'Medium' risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For woody biomass (invasive alien plants and forestry residues), fuel rods are the most economical densification technology, whereas for soft biomass (maize residues, garden waste, and sawdust), white pellets are the cheapest option.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sieving biomass prior to densification provides significant cost savings, reducing the price of black pellets by an average of 22.9% compared to non-sieved options.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The optimal primary transport vehicle for bulk biomass is the walking floor vehicle due to its volume capacity and performance in rural South African conditions, while the super-link tautliner is optimal for secondary transport to Secunda.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Rail transport is cheaper than road transport for secondary transport from only 6 of the 49 identified consolidation hubs: Ermelo, Germiston, Olifantsfontein (Pretoria), Vanderbijlpark, Mayfair, and Vryheid.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biomass feedstock delivered to the Secunda plant is estimated to be \"3-4 times more expensive than coal\", although this cost premium may be mitigated by airline premiums for SAF and Sasol's carbon tax liabilities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000208#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Sustainable Aviation Fuel","bioenergy","carbon tax","Transportation emission"],"geography_discussed":["Secunda","Johannesburg"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["techno-economic assessment","sustainability risk assessment","supply chain optimisation"]}]}