{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["survival analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'survival analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=survival+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001872","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001872","title":"Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2009-11","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bf914510-7188-4ab2-97eb-d02ceaf25b16/WPS5114.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research finds that large youth cohorts significantly increase the risk of political violence primarily in societies with low male secondary education levels. This effect is most pronounced in low and middle-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study supports the 'opportunity cost' hypothesis, suggesting that higher education reduces the incentive for young men to join rebel organizations. Conversely, it finds no evidence that rapid educational expansion or low progression ratios between education levels increase conflict risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001872#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The interaction between large youth cohorts and low education levels is particularly strong in low and middle-income countries, with significant relevance for Sub-Saharan Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001872#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study supports the hypothesis that education increases the opportunity cost of rebel labor, making rebellion less attractive to more highly educated youth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001872#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Rapid expansions in secondary and tertiary education do not increase the risk of armed conflict; in fact, secondary education expansion is statistically associated with lower risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001872#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Low educational progression ratios from primary to secondary education were found to be unrelated to the risk of armed conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001872#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis suggests that increasing educational levels for females may also have an indirect pacifying effect on conflict risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001872#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa","South Korea","Taiwan","Mozambique","Sierra Leone","Uganda","Eritrea","Nigeria","Namibia","Tanzania"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative","logistic regression","survival analysis","stratified interaction model"]},{"id":"prio-001714","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001714","title":"Running on Faith?","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2008-11","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/084c7220-6497-4243-a8e6-afbcb0e6d1a6/Running on Faith - A Quantitative Analysis.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds that conflicts with religious cleavages are significantly more intense than non-religious ones. The effect on duration is ambiguous: religious conflicts are more likely to terminate in their early stages but are harder to end once they have lasted at least two and a half years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Conflicts characterized by identity-based religious cleavages are significantly more violent than those without such cleavages. Multivariate analysis indicates that religious conflicts are predicted to have a 39.1% to 48.7% increase in annual battle-related deaths compared to non-religious conflicts, ceteris paribus.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The impact of religious cleavages on conflict duration is time-dependent. In the early phases, religious conflicts are more likely to be terminated; however, after approximately two and a half years, they become less likely to end than non-religious conflicts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Religious polarization is a significant predictor of both intensity and duration. Higher levels of religious polarization are associated with increased conflict intensity and a higher likelihood of prolonged conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Religious fractionalization is associated with higher conflict intensity, contradicting the hypothesis that it would reduce intensity. It does not have a statistically significant effect on conflict duration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Religious discrimination tends to prolong religious conflicts. In religious conflicts, higher levels of discrimination are associated with a reduced risk of termination.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The effect of religious legitimacy (defined as the presence of a state religion) on intensity varies by conflict type. In non-religious conflicts, high religious legitimacy predicts higher intensity, whereas in religious conflicts, it is associated with lower intensity levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Religious legitimacy also has a time-varying effect on duration. It is predicted to increase the risk of termination in the first 234 days of a religious conflict, but it prolongs the conflict after that period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regime type has a non-linear, non-monotonic effect on conflict intensity. The highest intensity levels are expected in slightly authoritarian regimes (Polity score of -2.75), while fully democratic states are predicted to have 52.5% less intense conflicts than fully authoritarian states.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conflict history is a strong predictor of intensity, as indicated by a positive and highly significant coefficient for the lagged battle-deaths variable.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of simultaneous conflicts in a country is a strong predictor of overall intensity levels, as multiple conflicts lead to more battles and deaths.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001714#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Democratic Republic of the Congo","Sri Lanka"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","multivariate regression","survival analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001190","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001190","title":"A price worth fighting for? Natural resources and conflict recurrence","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/caece463-787d-4449-b8b3-26da280e511b/A Price Worth Fighting For Natural Resources and Conflict Recurrence.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study analyzes 285 conflict episodes to determine how natural resources affect the duration of postconflict peace. It identifies three primary mechanisms: distribution, financing, and aggravation. The findings indicate that while natural resource conflicts generally show shorter peace periods bivariately, only conflicts driven by disagreements over the distribution of resources and revenues significantly increase the risk of recurrence in a multivariate analysis. This suggests that resource-related grievances are a more persistent driver of conflict relapse than the mere opportunity to finance warfare.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001190#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Bivariate analysis shows that peace periods following conflicts linked to any natural resource mechanism are 41.4% shorter than those following non-resource conflicts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001190#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In a multivariate survival model, only conflicts characterized by the distribution mechanism—disagreements over the ownership or revenue of natural resources—significantly shorten the duration of postconflict peace.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001190#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study refutes the hypothesis that conflicts financed by natural resources are significantly more likely to resume, challenging the theory that conflict recurrence is primarily driven by the feasibility of financing rebellion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001190#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The aggravation mechanism, where resources indirectly fuel conflict through factors like pipeline proximity or environmental degradation, was not found to have a significant impact on peace failure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001190#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The research identifies that natural resource conflicts are more likely to end without a clear resolution, as these mechanisms significantly reduce the probability of the conflict ending in a military victory.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001190#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional analysis reveals that resource distribution claims are most prevalent in South Asia, while the use of resources for financing is most common in East Asia and the Pacific, largely driven by cases in Burma.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001190#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The risk of peace failure is highest in the first 20 years following conflict termination, with the likelihood of peace continuing to hold increasing as the duration of the peace period grows.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001190#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural resource management","petroleum","natural gas","environmental degradation","desertification","drought"],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa","South Asia","East Asia and the Pacific","Myanmar","Middle East and North Africa","Europe and Central Asia","Nigeria","El Salvador","Nepal","India","Senegal","Angola","Liberia","Sierra Leone","Mali","Nicaragua","Indonesia","Chad","Ethiopia","Republic of the Congo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative","survival analysis","multivariate analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001396","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001396","title":"Foliage and fighting: Forest resources and the onset, duration, and location of civil war","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6d52ac8c-fdf1-4f90-90ad-c440d255164a/Foliage and Fighting Forest Resources and the Onset Duration and Location of Civil War.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds no general statistical relationship between forest resources and the onset or duration of civil wars at the national level. While some disaggregated results suggest that proximity to the coast may prolong conflicts in forested zones, the authors conclude that the perceived link between forests and conflict is largely driven by a few specific cases, such as Burma, rather than a global pattern.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"At the national level, there is no general relationship between forest resources and the onset of conflict; in fact, some data suggests that higher forest cover is associated with a lower risk of conflict onset.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"National-level analysis does not support the hypothesis that forest resources prolong civil wars; instead, conflicts in countries with forest or closed forest cover tend to be shorter.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The perceived positive correlation between forest exports and conflict onset is not a general pattern but is primarily driven by the case of Burma.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In disaggregated analysis of conflict zones, a shorter distance to the coast is associated with longer conflict duration in forested areas, likely because timber is more easily transported by sea.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Forest resources do not appear to act as a 'second choice' for rebels in the absence of more valuable lootable resources like oil and diamonds.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of the post-Cold War period suggests that forest cover may increase the opportunities to extract other conflict commodities, but it does not substitute for them.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors argue that previous claims by NGOs and international organizations (such as FAO and USAID) that forest conflict is a worldwide phenomenon are based on hasty generalizations from a few case studies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001396#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation"],"geography_discussed":["Myanmar","Cambodia","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Liberia","Ethiopia","Papua New Guinea","Senegal","Bangladesh"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["statistical analysis","comparative study","disaggregated analysis","survival analysis"]}]}