{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["supply-demand analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'supply-demand analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=supply-demand+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"zca-000127","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/zca-000127","title":"ON THIN ICE: A supply-demand analysis of three EU energy scenarios","publisher":{"name":"Zero Carbon Analytics","organization":"zero-carbon-analytics"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-02","source_url":"https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/On-Thin-Ice.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report concludes that the EU's demand for fossil gas and oil is in a long-term structural decline, making new production projects—especially in the Arctic—unnecessary and incompatible with 1.5°C warming limits. Analysis shows that existing production and current contracts will likely exceed EU demand by the 2030s in net-zero aligned scenarios, creating a risk of oversupply and stranded assets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"EU fossil gas demand is in a long-term structural decline across all analyzed scenarios, driven by climate commitments, energy economics, and government policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In scenarios aligned with the EU's climate pledges or a 1.5°C limit, existing gas projects in the EU, Norway, and Algeria, combined with current contracts, are projected to exceed demand by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In a net-zero aligned scenario, EU domestic production and contracted gas could exceed demand by the 2030s, potentially reaching nearly double the demand by 2040, allowing the EU to end all Norwegian gas imports by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"New oil production projects are deemed unnecessary to meet future EU demand, as oil demand is expected to decline long-term and Norwegian oil production is projected to peak by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green hydrogen is expected to be more cost-competitive than gas-based blue hydrogen within the next five years, with BloombergNEF forecasting it to be 24% to 45% cheaper in Germany by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The expansion of LNG import capacity in the EU, expected to increase by 78% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels, risks locking in higher fossil fuel use and undermining global climate goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Exploration in the Barents Sea has produced disappointing, often uneconomical results, and production from new Arctic fields would likely not start until the late 2030s, coinciding with the EU's target to drastically reduce fossil fuel use.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current CCS capacity would need to increase nearly tenfold by 2030 to sustain Europe's gas demand while meeting the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario, a target the industry is currently far from achieving.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000127#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural gas","crude oil","energy transition","carbon neutrality","carbon capture and storage","blue hydrogen","green hydrogen","liquefied natural gas","energy security","stranded asset","methane leak"],"geography_discussed":["Barents Sea","Algeria","United States","Germany","Russia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["supply-demand analysis","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"ucs-000951","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-000951","title":"The Promises and Limits of Biomethane as a Transportation Fuel","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2017-05","source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/05/Promises-and-limits-of-Biomethane-factsheet.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines biomethane derived from landfills, wastewater treatment centers, and dairies as a replacement for diesel and natural gas in California's heavy-duty vehicle fleets. While acknowledging its climate benefits over fossil fuels, the authors highlight that California's total biomethane potential from waste would meet only 3% of the state's natural gas demand and 15% of its diesel consumption. The report warns that promoting compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles could inadvertently increase reliance on fossil natural gas due to this supply gap. It concludes that biomethane provides the greatest emissions reductions when used to generate electricity or hydrogen for electric vehicles, but that battery electric vehicles powered by the grid remain the most effective path for meeting climate goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000951#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Biomethane from waste sources in California is insufficient to meet the state's energy demands, potentially covering only 3% of total natural gas demand and 15% of diesel consumption if used exclusively for transport.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000951#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increasing the adoption of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles may risk increasing California's overall consumption of fossil natural gas because biomethane supply is limited.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000951#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biomethane offers the most significant climate and air quality benefits when used to produce electricity or hydrogen for electric vehicles rather than being used directly in CNG vehicles, due to higher efficiency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000951#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Battery electric vehicles powered by the current electricity grid outperform low-NOx CNG vehicles fueled by landfill biomethane, providing 30% lower global warming emissions and 20% lower NOx emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000951#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The life cycle emissions benefits of biomethane vary by source; biomethane from dairy manure can result in 'negative' life cycle emissions because it offsets significant uncaptured methane emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000951#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The climate benefits of biomethane can be undermined by methane leaks within the natural gas distribution infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000951#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable natural gas","compressed natural gas","large goods vehicle","electric vehicle","fuel cell vehicle","methane emissions","landfill gas"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["life cycle assessment","supply-demand analysis"]}]}