{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["strategic modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'strategic modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=strategic+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-000951","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000951","title":"Modelación Estratégica de la Cuenca del Río Rocha","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"es","date_published":"2019-12-01","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/modelacion-estrategica-de-la-cuenca-del-rio-rocha/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report details the development of a water management strategy for the Rocha River basin, supported by the Ministry of Environment and Water (MMAyA) and the Autonomous Departmental Government of Cochabamba (GADC). It focuses on strategic modeling via the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system to address water vulnerability caused by limited resources, economic development needs, and climate change. The process emphasizes local participation and self-management to improve integrated water resources management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000951#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The project utilized the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system for strategic modeling to assess how proposed management strategies could reduce water vulnerability across various sectors of the Rocha River basin.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000951#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The water management strategy for the Rocha River basin was advanced in 2018 by local actors with support from the MMAyA and GADC, and funding from the CAF, to address challenges including limited water sources and climate change vulnerability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000951#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Integrated Water Resources Management","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Cochabamba Department"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["strategic modeling","stakeholder analysis"]},{"id":"sei-001477","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001477","title":"Modelación estratégica de la cuenca del río rocha","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"es","date_published":"2019-12","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/modelación-estratégica-de-la-cuenca-del-río-rocha-españo.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document evaluates the water security of the Rocha River basin, identifying critical deficits in urban and agricultural supply and poor water quality. Using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system, it tests several strategies—including the Misicuni Multiple Project, new water transfers, wastewater treatment, and irrigation efficiency—finding that only integrated, combined strategies can guarantee water supply through 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001477#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change scenarios for the 2020-2050 period indicate a potential annual precipitation decrease of up to 7%, with more severe reductions of 15% in February and 30% in March. Temperatures could rise by up to 1.8 °C, potentially reducing the annual water supply by 13%, and by 20% to 48% during February and March.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001477#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Rocha River suffers from severe water quality degradation due to untreated urban wastewater and industrial discharges from municipalities including Sacaba, Cochabamba, Colcapirhua, Tiquipaya, Quillacollo, Vinto, and Sipe Sipe. Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) concentrations were found to fluctuate between 428 and 852 mg/l, exceeding permissible limits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001477#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current water demands significantly exceed supply. In the metropolitan region, the irrigation demand for 13,424 hectares is approximately 226 hm3, with an unsatisfied demand of 115 hm3. In the Valle Alto, the demand for 26,577 hectares is 430 hm3, with 278 hm3 remaining unsatisfied.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001477#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Groundwater extraction in the basin has increased unsustainably. In the Rocha sub-basin, extractions rose from 19 Hm3 in 1976 to 52 hm3 in the current study. In the Valle Alto (Sulty sub-basin), extractions grew from 1.8 Hm3 in 1976 to 36 Hm3.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001477#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Individual management strategies are insufficient to meet all water demands. Strategy 1 (Misicuni Project Phase II) only reduces vulnerability for Riego Angostura and can only guarantee supply until 2034 if agricultural areas continue to shrink. Only integrated Strategies 3 and 4 can guarantee urban and irrigation supply for the metropolitan region through 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001477#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Irrigation systems in the basin are highly inefficient, with traditional systems recording losses of up to 70%. Improving conduction infrastructure could increase efficiency to between 35% and 45%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001477#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","water management","wastewater treatment","water-management"],"geography_discussed":["Bolivia","Cochabamba Department","Valle Alto"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["strategic modeling","vulnerability assessment","stakeholder mapping"]},{"id":"prio-001835","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001835","title":"Twisting Arms and Sending Messages: Terrorist Tactics in Civil War","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/94b5df71-96ab-465c-bf4c-a8dc3e92d553/Twisting Arms and Sending Messages Terrorist Tactics in Civil War.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research paper analyzes the strategic motivations for terrorism in civil wars using a new dataset linking the Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Data and the Global Terrorism Database. It argues that terrorism serves to coerce governments and communicate resolve, particularly for militarily weaker groups. The study finds that the frequency of attacks increases with government repression and press freedom. Furthermore, it identifies a correlation between group ideology and targeting: groups with universalist ideologies (e.g., Marxist-socialist) predominantly target 'hard' official targets, while those with sectarian or religious ideologies are more likely to target 'soft' civilian targets due to stronger 'othering' of out-groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001835#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Militarily weaker rebel groups are more likely to employ terrorist tactics extensively because they lack the capacity for conventional warfare and are less concerned about the counterproductive effects of terrorism on popular support compared to stronger groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001835#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Government repression increases the likelihood of terrorist attacks, as a history of state violence makes the rebel group's target audience more permissive of terrorism.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001835#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Greater press freedom encourages the use of terrorist tactics because it increases the visibility of spectacular attacks, allowing groups to spread fear and advertise their presence more effectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001835#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Rebel groups with universalist political ideologies and inclusive audiences, such as Marxist-socialist groups, predominantly target 'hard' official targets (e.g., police and infrastructure) to maximize material damage while avoiding large civilian casualties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001835#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Groups with sectarian, ethno-nationalist, or religious ideologies are more likely to target 'soft' civilian targets because their ideologies create strong 'othering,' making civilians outside their core constituency legitimate targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001835#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Groups lacking a clear ideology or specific goals are more likely to target soft civilian targets because they have fewer inhibitions regarding the loss of domestic popular support.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001835#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Colombia","Myanmar","Syria","Turkey","Sri Lanka","Algeria","Peru","India","Afghanistan","Guatemala","Northern Ireland","El Salvador"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","strategic modeling","actor-oriented approach"]}]}