{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["sectoral impact study"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'sectoral impact study' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=sectoral+impact+study","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"clipolin-001136","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-001136","title":"GOVERNMENT ASSETS: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE POLICY LANDSCAPE","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Government-Assets-Risks-and-Opportunities-in-a-Changing-Climate-Policy-Landscape.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document provides a framework for governments to assess how climate policies affect national budgets, focusing on the production side of fossil fuels and infrastructure. It details a five-step methodology: establishing a base case, developing scenarios, assessing policy impacts, allocating value between consumers and producers, and splitting value between government and commercial entities. The report applies this to Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Egypt, highlighting that oil assets are most sensitive to global demand shifts, while coal and gas are more influenced by regional dynamics and infrastructure. It recommends that governments reduce upfront capital commitments, adapt tax regimes, and diversify into low-carbon technologies to mitigate the risk of stranded assets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The report outlines a five-step methodology for calculating budgetary risk: establishing a base case, developing scenarios and sensitivities, assessing the impact of policy changes on economic contribution, allocating value between consumers and producers, and allocating value between government and commercial producers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Oil markets are highly sensitive to international price changes and demand reductions; a 10% reduction in demand for oil has a significantly larger impact on producer profits than a similar reduction in coal demand due to the steepness of the oil supply curve.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the power sector, natural-gas plants are unlikely to be stranded before 2030 as they replace coal as primary baseload generators, but long-term value may be lost as renewables and energy-efficiency technologies become cost-competitive.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For Russian oil, the economic value to producers is projected to decline from US$ 1.25 trillion to US$ 630 billion under a low-carbon scenario, with the government at risk for US$ 515 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Kazakhstan's oil revenues are projected to decline by US$ 115 billion under a low-carbon scenario, largely due to the loss of royalties and taxes from the ageing Tengiz field.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Egypt's oil production value is expected to fall from US$ 112 billion in a business-as-usual scenario to US$ 88 billion in a low-carbon scenario, with the government bearing US$ 18 billion of the risk; however, removing generous energy subsidies could partially offset these losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coking coal is more insulated from climate policy demand shifts than thermal coal because it is difficult to replace in primary steel production and is a candidate for carbon capture and storage (CCS).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Russian coal industry faces heavy losses from falling exports in a low-carbon scenario, with production value falling by US$ 64 billion, though the government is largely insulated because the industry is privatised.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Russian gas revenues are projected to fall by 30%, from US$ 650 billion to US$ 458 billion, as the government is hit hardest due to the state-owned nature of the largest producers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Turkmenistan's gas revenues are projected to fall by 17% in a low-carbon scenario, with a sharp decline expected after 2033 due to reduced European demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Turkey's power sector, there is no projected risk of stranding for the government or private investors between 2015 and 2035, and a low-carbon transition could result in a net cost saving of US$ 1 billion for private investors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001136#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","stranded asset","climate finance","carbon price","Emissions trading","fossil fuel subsidy","renewable energy","energy efficiency","petroleum","natural gas","coal","carbon capture and storage","public–private partnership"],"geography_discussed":["Turkey","Poland","Ukraine","Turkmenistan","United Arab Emirates","Saudi Arabia","People's Republic of China","Europe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["methodological framework","budgetary risk assessment","scenario analysis","sectoral impact study"]}]}